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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Aug 12, 2025 • 12 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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PMC COVID Dashboard, August 11, 2025 (U.S.)

The CDC says transmission is heating up.

"Very High" (3)
🔺Guam
🔺Hawai'i
🔺Louisiana

"High" (12)
🔺Alabama
🔺Alaska
🔺California
🔺Colorado
🔺Delaware
🔺Florida
🔺Indiana
🔺Mississippi
🔺Nevada
🔺S. Carolina
🔺Texas
🔺Utah

🧵1/12Heat map from CDC data. High/Very high states noted in post
Transmission is highest in these regions. Graphics note the CDC levels and PMC prevalence estimates.

🔥Louisiana (Very High): 1 in 19 actively infectious
🔥Guam (Very High): 1 in 26
🔥Hawai'i (Very High): 1 in 28
🔥Texas (High): 1 in 45

🧵2/12 Graphics show heat maps and prevalence estimates, noted in the post
Statewide transmission remains "High" in Florida, according to the CDC. PMC estimates 1 in 50 actively infectious.

Several cities report "Very High" transmission. Several sites are offline.

🧵3/12 Heat map and prevalence estimate noted in the post
Statewide transmission remains "High" in California, according to the CDC, but notice that transmission is "Very High" in many cities.

PMC estimates 1 in 56 are actively infectious statewide, and at least 1 in 40 in the dark red zones.

🧵4/12 CDC heat map and PMC prevalence estimate, summarized in post
New Today:

For each state, the PMC dashboard now lists CDC levels, prevalence estimates, and chances of an exposure based on gathering size.

This chart continues in the next post.


🧵5/12 pmc19.com/dataState/Territory Level Category Actively Infectious Alabama 5.72 High 1 in 60 (1.7%) Alaska 6.15 High 1 in 55 (1.8%) Arizona 0.93 Very Low** 1 in 367 (0.3%) Arkansas 3.90 Moderate 1 in 88 (1.1%) California 6.08 High 1 in 56 (1.8%) Colorado 4.63 High 1 in 74 (1.4%) Connecticut 4.23 Moderate 1 in 81 (1.2%) Delaware 4.64 High 1 in 74 (1.4%) District of Columbia 3.04 Moderate 1 in 112 (0.9%) Florida 6.81 High 1 in 50 (2.0%) Georgia 3.44 Moderate 1 in 99 (1.0%) Guam 13.33 Very High** 1 in 26 (3.9%) Hawaii 12.30 Very High 1 in 28 (3.6%) Idaho 2.49 Low 1 in 137 (0.7%) Illinois 2.99 Low 1 in 114 (0....
In addition to our new state-level table (continued here), you can always scroll down further on the dashboard to find links to more CDC and non-CDC data in your area (if available).

Direct link to those sources:

🧵6/12 pmc19.com/data/index.php…State/Territory Level Category Actively Infectious Missouri 3.65 Moderate 1 in 93 (1.1%) Montana 3.44 Moderate 1 in 99 (1.0%) Nebraska 2.34 Low 1 in 146 (0.7%) Nevada 7.74 High 1 in 44 (2.3%) New Hampshire 1.07 Very Low 1 in 320 (0.3%) New Jersey 2.02 Low 1 in 169 (0.6%) New Mexico 2.67 Low 1 in 128 (0.8%) New York 1.07 Very Low** 1 in 318 (0.3%) North Carolina 3.34 Moderate 1 in 102 (1.0%) North Dakota 2.82* Low** 1 in 121 (0.8%) Ohio 1.96 Low 1 in 174 (0.6%) Oklahoma 1.75 Low** 1 in 195 (0.5%) Oregon 3.22 Moderate 1 in 106 (0.9%) Pennsylvania 3.14 Moderate 1 in 108 (0.9%) Rhode Island 2.7...
Our forecast continues to show levels likely rising.

There are many sites offline and huge data lags, so these real-time estimates are imperfect. Notice the low versus high estimates in the forecast.

Much uncertainty. Track locally as best you can.
🧵7/12 Past year of transmission and current forecast, amid much uncertainty. Transmission is rising, but it's difficult to know in real-time how steeply.
Notice that current transmission (red) is closely tracking that of the Delta wave (blue, 4 years ago).

I cannot imagine transmission peaking much lower than that. With uncertainty (NY mostly offline), the peak could be marginally higher or wider.

🧵8/12 year-over-year graph described in post
We remain in a pandemic. An estimated 1 in 93 are actively infectious today.

Expect the real-time estimates to bounce up or down a bit with the sites offline and lags in reporting. Biobot (20% model weight) took the week off entirely.

🧵9/12 "Whole pandemic" graph
Today in the U.S.

🔥More transmission than 53% of days from pandemic onset to present
🔥3.6 million weekly infections
🔥Actuarial-derived estimates suggest this week's infections will cause 1,300-2,100 excess deaths

🧵10/12 Current Levels for Aug 11, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 1.1% (1 in 93) New Daily Infections 512000 New Weekly Infections 3584000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 179,000 to 717,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 1,300 to 2,100 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.5% (1 in 65) Average New Daily Infections 733233.3333 New Infections During the Next Month 21997000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 1,100,000 to 4,399,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 7,900 to 13,100 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 95754000 Average Number ...
Register and join us Sunday for the "Back-to-School Health Forum."


Could you comment here with any questions you'd like me to answer on Sunday?

🧵11/12 bit.ly/MTAHealthForumBack-to-School health forum, link provided in post
Find the full PMC dashboard online: pmc19.com/data

Please use/improve/share across platforms.

I'm on lG a bit more lately trying to boost C19 awareness, so find me there too.
instagram.com/michael_hoerge…

🧵12/12 Full PMC dashboard, described in prior posts

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 23
PMC #COVID Update, March 23, 2026 (U.S.)

Transmission levels have plummeted nationally as we shift from the 12th wave toward a relative "lull."

Over half the states have "Very Low" relative transmission, per the CDC.

🧵THREAD 1 of 8 Heat map using CDC levels and PMC estimate of prevalence (1 in 147 actively infectious nationwide).
Transmission varies considerably by state.

Highest
🔥Mississippi: 1 in 31 estimated actively infectious
🔥Michigan: 1 in 41
*Both states w/limited data though

Rates are quite low in relative terms in California, AZ, FL, HI, ID, MA, NV, NY, OR, RI, UT, WI

🧵THREAD 2 of 8 Alabama Very Low Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low Arkansas Low* California Very Low Colorado Very Low Connecticut Low Delaware Moderate District of Columbia Low Florida Very Low Georgia Very Low Guam Very Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very Low Indiana Low Iowa Moderate Kansas Low Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Low Maine Very Low Maryland Moderate Massachusetts Very Low Michigan High* Minnesota Moderate Mississippi High* Missouri Low Montana Very Low Nebraska Low Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Low* New Jersey Low New Mexico Very Low New York Very Low North Carolina Low North Dakota...
The 6th anniversary of the WHO's pandemic declaration was March 11.

Bots, minimizers, & individuals' psychological defense mechanisms will downplay that.

Yet, the U.S. just had a 12th wave. We estimate >5 cumulative infections/person & ongoing health harms.

🧵THREAD 3 of 8 Graph of the 12 waves of the pandemic (U.S.)
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 14
As of today, the COVID-19 pandemic is now longer than WWII.
If you have been living in denial the past 6 years, know that the U.S. is winding down from a 12th wave of infections presently.
Denial is but one of several obvious defense mechanisms people use to try to block their awareness of the ongoing toll of COVID-19. There are many others.

Short-term capital also plays a role, but even that requires a large dose of defense mechanisms.

Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 25
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.

PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17

🧵1/ Heat map using CDC data. National PMC prevalence estimate noted; estimated incidence of 732,000 new daily infections.
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.

This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/ Column 1: Table of state-level prevalence estimates. Highest estimates noted in the thread text. Column 2: Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 67 (1.5%) New Daily Infections 732,000 Infections the Past Week 5,220,000 Infections in 2026 24,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.04 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 37,000 to 146,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 261,000 to 1,040,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Ex...
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.

We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/ Fig 1: Graph of 12 waves Fig 2: "Barometer" showing above average transmission Fig 3: Year-over-year graph, which informs the analytic forecast Fig 4: Forecast described in post
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 17
Based on today's CDC & Biobot data, we estimate the following for the week of Jan 19:

🔸1 in 52 people in the U.S. actively infectious
🔸25% chance of exposure in a room of 15 ppl
🔸Nearly 1 million new daily infections
🔸5 cumulative infections per person all-time (avg)
🧵1/5 Heat map from CDC data with PMC estimates. Description of "Very High" states in next post
Transmission estimates have been marginally corrected upward.

11 states have Very High COVlD levels:

🔸PA: 1 in 25 estimated actively infectious
🔸MI: 1 in 23
🔸OH & KY: 1 in 22
🔸SD: 1 in 20
🔸NE & IA: 1 in 18
🔸IL & ME: 1 in 17
🔸IN: 1 in 16
🔸WV: 1 in 11
🧵2/5 Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 52 (1.9%) New Daily Infections 941,000 Infections the Past Week 6,020,000 Infections in 2026 18,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.01 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 47,000 to 188,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 301,000 to 1,200,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting 270 to 450 from New Daily Infections Excess Deaths Resulting ...
We're in the middle of a 12th COVlD wave.

The peak has likely passed, but with students headed back to school, transmission is expected to remain high for at least the next several weeks.

🧵3/5 1) Graph of 12 waves 2) Barometer showing above-average transmission 3) Year over year graph 4) Forecast for transmission to decline and then percolate at high levels
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 10
The size of the winter COVlD wave has been revised upward as post-holiday data come in.

We estimated 1 in 55 people in the U.S. are actively infectious.

🔥WV: 1 in 14
🔥IN: 1 in 15
🔥MI & OH: 1 in 21
🔥MO: 1 in 22
🔥CT: 1 in 24
🔥KS: 1 in 25
🔥MA & IL: 1 in 27

Quick 🧵 1/4 Heat map and PMC estimates, 1 in 55 infectious and 892,000 new daily infections for Jan 12. We expedited the report to release it two days early.
Nationally, we are seeing an estimated 892,000 new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections, meaning a 1 in 4 chance of exposure in a room of 15 people. Risk varies considerably by state.

We are approaching an average of 5 infections per person since pandemic onset.
🧵 2/4 Alabama Moderate Alaska Very Low Arizona Very Low Arkansas High* California Very Low Colorado Low Connecticut Very High Delaware Moderate District of Columbia Very Low Florida Very Low Georgia Very Low Guam Very Low Hawaii Very Low Idaho Very Low Illinois Very High Indiana Very High Iowa High Kansas Very High Kentucky Moderate Louisiana Moderate Maine High Maryland High Massachusetts Very High Michigan Very High* Minnesota Moderate Mississippi Low* Missouri Very High* Montana High Nebraska High Nevada Very Low New Hampshire Moderate New Jersey Low New Mexico Moderate New York High* North Ca...
We are in the 12th COVlD wave of the U.S.

Current transmission is higher than 68% of all days since the pandemic onset in 2020.
🧵 3/4 12 waves of COVlD Pandemic barometer: Higher than 88% of the past 100 days, 73% of the past year, 68% of the entire pandemic. Year over year graph Forecast of slowly declining transmission.
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 8
You might not have heard, but the northeastern U.S. is in a COVlD surge.

We use wastewater levels to derive estimates of the proportion of people actively infectious in each state (prevalence), e.g., 1 in 24 people in Connecticut.

Let me walk you through it...

🧵1/8 Colors show CDC levels PMC prevalence estimates noted: -Maine 1 in 38 actively infectious with COVlD -New Hampshire 1 in 35 (limited data) -Vermont 1 in 75 -New York 1 in 44 (limited data) -Pennsylvania 1 in 44 -Massachusetts 1 in 36 -Connecticut 1 in 24 -Rhode Island 1 in 41 -New Jersey 1 in 82
Notice that #Connecticut has excellent SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance. It's "Very High" across much of the state, per CDC.

Based on wastewater levels, we estimate 1 in 24 residents are actively infectious w/COVlD. That's a 66% exposure risk in a room of 25 people.

🧵2/8 Colors show CDC levels PMC estimate of prevalence
The CDC reports "Very High" levels in #Massachusetts.

The surveillance is less robust, but we estimate 1 in 26 residents are actively infectious, similar to our estimate in CT where coverage is better.

In a room of 25 people, that's a 62% chance of an exposure.

🧵3/8 Colors show CDC levels PMC prevalence estimates provided
Read 8 tweets

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