Clément Molin Profile picture
19 ans, Lyon 🇫🇷, étudiant en Relations Internationales à Lille, cartes, analyses et suivi des conflits 🇸🇩🇨🇩🇦🇲🇲🇲🇺🇦🇸🇴🇸🇾 Directeur d'@atummundi

Sep 21, 20 tweets

In #Ukraine 🇺🇦 the new underground war

If you want to survive in Ukraine, you must dig and hide. If you are seen outside, your life expectancy is low.

Modern armies must then adapt, to hide artillery, troops, mortars and supply roads.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️

Do you remember the "shoot and scoot" strategy ?

It was using western artillery, especially wheeled one like Caesars to fire on russian positions before leaving the area.

This strategy is dead in the high intensity war in Ukraine. Now the Caesars are buried underground.

But why are these ultra-mobile guns no longer used for their "shoot and scout" mission? Because they are quickly spotted and pursued by drones for 10-20 km behind the front.

In a war of position, the greatest danger comes from drones, not counter-batteries, so you have to dig.

This video that I also found on TikTok is very interesting, because it shows us a traditionnal japanese or vietnamese strategy against US Air Power : hiding mortars under the soil, opening just to shoot.

Impossible then, to locate the source of this mortar !

Digging is the main ukrainian strategy to survive and to stop russian army.

Baltic countries, Finland and Poland must also prepare these kinds of fortifications.

Any journalist going to Ukraine will show and know how the reality is. If you are not hiding under the soil, you can be killed very fast.

Dones are everywhere and see everything. Some are stopping on the sides of roads to attack logistics.

The current ukrainian strategy is the following :

-strike and kill as much russians as possible with drones
-fortify everything (ditches, barbed row, dragon teeths...)
-dig positions, hide in cities, protect logistics

TikToks posted online are also showing these anti-drone nets placed over roads.

The goal is to prevent drones from attacking main roads and logistics. These nets are not infallible, but they help reduce drone strikes on logistics.

In the future, there is even possibility that they will try to even hide the main roads with camouflaged nets, but it will however cost a lot of money...

At least, they are protecting the main roads to the frontline.

If you cannot hide, you must be very fast. This is the reason why both Ukraine and Russia are using motorcycles, quads, buggys and others high speed means to supply the frontline.

Ukraine is now also using ground robots, for different missions, protecting the lives of its soldiers :

-supplies
-fire support
-mine laying
-KIA/WIA evacuation

Most frontline villages and cities are destoyed. Here is how they look like. Hiding in houses is not really a solution for soldiers.

Most of the war is now happening underground. Soldiers are sleeping underground, they eat underground, they fight underground, they launch drones underground.

They leave the soil just to fight (not really often) and to leave the position.

On the other side (Russia is attacking), russian soldiers are trying to find solutions.

They are not using armoured vehicles anymore (destroyed before reaching the frontline) but mobile forces (moto) or infantry. Often, they use old abandonned pipelines to infiltrate.

To recapitulate, both armies understood the new dynamics of war. If you are not hiding yourself under the surface of the earth, you can be spotted, targeted and killed.

From artillery to infantry and supply roads, you must hide and dig.

In this video, you can see an artillery crew. They just go out to shoot and then hide again, but they need a very big hole, made by excavator.

If you support Ukraine and are willing to help, you can support @Teoyaomiquu fundraisings.

As we are talking, ukrainian excavators are digging massive new lines, expanding defenses and existing lines.

Since 2 weeks, we have located 6 new defensive lines, 2 in Zaporizhia, 2 in Dnipropetrovsk and 2 in Donetsk oblasts.

This is my guess of where new defensive lines under construction will be standing ! In green is russian progress in 2025.

For Ukraine, Russia and the few countries where drones are more and more used (Sudan, Congo, Mali, Myanmar...), there is no problem saying they are the main threat.

For the others, it's time to understand they can be used for everything and are very dangerous.

-> terrorist attacks
-> air recon over military, industry, airport
-> naval attacks
-> mine laying, bridge destruction
->targeted assassination
->sabotage
...

Thank you for following this thread. Don't hesitate to repost and follow me !

What do you want me to talk about in my next threads ? Any other conflict ? I will talk about Congo, in french, in my next analysis.

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