Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 21 20 tweets 9 min read Read on X
In #Ukraine 🇺🇦 the new underground war

If you want to survive in Ukraine, you must dig and hide. If you are seen outside, your life expectancy is low.

Modern armies must then adapt, to hide artillery, troops, mortars and supply roads.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️
Do you remember the "shoot and scoot" strategy ?

It was using western artillery, especially wheeled one like Caesars to fire on russian positions before leaving the area.

This strategy is dead in the high intensity war in Ukraine. Now the Caesars are buried underground.
But why are these ultra-mobile guns no longer used for their "shoot and scout" mission? Because they are quickly spotted and pursued by drones for 10-20 km behind the front.

In a war of position, the greatest danger comes from drones, not counter-batteries, so you have to dig.
This video that I also found on TikTok is very interesting, because it shows us a traditionnal japanese or vietnamese strategy against US Air Power : hiding mortars under the soil, opening just to shoot.

Impossible then, to locate the source of this mortar !
Digging is the main ukrainian strategy to survive and to stop russian army.

Baltic countries, Finland and Poland must also prepare these kinds of fortifications. Image
Any journalist going to Ukraine will show and know how the reality is. If you are not hiding under the soil, you can be killed very fast.

Dones are everywhere and see everything. Some are stopping on the sides of roads to attack logistics.
The current ukrainian strategy is the following :

-strike and kill as much russians as possible with drones
-fortify everything (ditches, barbed row, dragon teeths...)
-dig positions, hide in cities, protect logistics Image
TikToks posted online are also showing these anti-drone nets placed over roads.

The goal is to prevent drones from attacking main roads and logistics. These nets are not infallible, but they help reduce drone strikes on logistics.
In the future, there is even possibility that they will try to even hide the main roads with camouflaged nets, but it will however cost a lot of money...

At least, they are protecting the main roads to the frontline. Image
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If you cannot hide, you must be very fast. This is the reason why both Ukraine and Russia are using motorcycles, quads, buggys and others high speed means to supply the frontline.
Ukraine is now also using ground robots, for different missions, protecting the lives of its soldiers :

-supplies
-fire support
-mine laying
-KIA/WIA evacuation Image
Most frontline villages and cities are destoyed. Here is how they look like. Hiding in houses is not really a solution for soldiers. Image
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Most of the war is now happening underground. Soldiers are sleeping underground, they eat underground, they fight underground, they launch drones underground.

They leave the soil just to fight (not really often) and to leave the position. Image
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On the other side (Russia is attacking), russian soldiers are trying to find solutions.

They are not using armoured vehicles anymore (destroyed before reaching the frontline) but mobile forces (moto) or infantry. Often, they use old abandonned pipelines to infiltrate. Image
To recapitulate, both armies understood the new dynamics of war. If you are not hiding yourself under the surface of the earth, you can be spotted, targeted and killed.

From artillery to infantry and supply roads, you must hide and dig.
In this video, you can see an artillery crew. They just go out to shoot and then hide again, but they need a very big hole, made by excavator.

If you support Ukraine and are willing to help, you can support @Teoyaomiquu fundraisings.

As we are talking, ukrainian excavators are digging massive new lines, expanding defenses and existing lines.

Since 2 weeks, we have located 6 new defensive lines, 2 in Zaporizhia, 2 in Dnipropetrovsk and 2 in Donetsk oblasts. Image
This is my guess of where new defensive lines under construction will be standing ! In green is russian progress in 2025. Image
For Ukraine, Russia and the few countries where drones are more and more used (Sudan, Congo, Mali, Myanmar...), there is no problem saying they are the main threat.

For the others, it's time to understand they can be used for everything and are very dangerous.

-> terrorist attacks
-> air recon over military, industry, airport
-> naval attacks
-> mine laying, bridge destruction
->targeted assassination
->sabotage
...Image
Thank you for following this thread. Don't hesitate to repost and follow me !

What do you want me to talk about in my next threads ? Any other conflict ? I will talk about Congo, in french, in my next analysis. Image

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More from @clement_molin

Sep 28
A regional war in the horn of Africa between many actors

I talked about Sudan🇸🇩, about Somalia🇸🇴, about Ethiopia 🇪🇹 and about South Sudan 🇸🇸. All these conflicts are in fact a larger regional war between local and foreign powers, we can see this map with Sudan

🧵THREAD🧵1/11 ⬇️Image
The war in Sudan is opposing the army led by Al Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces led by Hemetti.

However this cannot be only seen as a local civil war. Its implications are wider. Same for the Ethiopian, Somalian and South Sudanese conflicts. Image
Image
The SAF allies :

-Turkiye 🇹🇷
-Egypt 🇪🇬
-TPLF (Tigray rebel forces in Ethiopia)🇪🇹
-SPLM-N (South Sudan Nuer rebellion of Machar)
-Iran 🇮🇷
-Qatar 🇶🇦
-Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 (traditionnaly, but with more neutral position currently) Image
Read 11 tweets
Sep 27
En #Ethiopie 🇪🇹, 5 ans de guerre sans couverture médiatique

Oui, la "guerre civile éthiopienne" qui a commencé dans le Tigré en 2020 est toujours en cours, cette fois dans l'Amhara, depuis 2023 entre les rebelles "Fano" et l'armée.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️Image
L'arrivée au pouvoir d'Abyi Ahmed en 2019 coïncide avec la fin de la domination des tigréens, puissant peuple du nord sur les affaires éthiopiennes.

Dès 2020, Addis Abeba lance une opération militaire pour désarmer le TPLF, Front Populaire de Libération du Tigré. Image
L'Ethiopie, c'est une mosaïque de peuples, dont les deux principaux, Amhariens et Oromiens représentent chacun 1/3 de la population. Les tigréens et les afars suivent avec 4% et 7% de la population, avec ensuite une série de peuples plus petits. Image
Read 15 tweets
Sep 25
L'Ukraine 🇺🇦 peut-elle envahir la Transnistrie ?

Ce territoire moldave 🇲🇩 séparatiste depuis 1992 abrite environ 6 000 forces d'actives, dont 1 500 soldats russes 🇷🇺. Une épine dans le pied de l'Ukraine.

Enjeux militaires d'un territoire isolé ⬇️

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️Image
En 2022, lors de l'invasion russe de l'Ukraine, les 49ème et 58èmes armées avaient pour objectif de prendre Kherson, Mykolaiv puis de se joindre aux forces en Transnitrie pour prendre Odessa.

Fin février 2022, les russes sont défaits devant Mykolaiv et tentent de trouver un pont Image
Leur expédition les amènent jusqu'à Voznessensk, premier pont bien plus au nord, dynamité au dernier moment par les ukrainiens.

Isolés et défaits, les russes se retirent entre Kherson et Mykolaiv et abandonnent la jonction avec la Transnitrie. Image
Read 20 tweets
Sep 24
In #Sudan 🇸🇩, the war of the generals turned into a Turkiye 🇹🇷 - United Arab Emirates 🇦🇪 proxy war.

Both sides have been widely active to support the Sudanese Armed Forces (for 🇹🇷) and the Rapid Support Forces (for 🇦🇪).

Analysis of a forgotten conflit :

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
After 2.5 years of war that saw the RSF capture Darfur (west), the capital Khartoum, the south of the country (Gezira, Sennar) and the army recapture Khartoum and the South, the frontline now divides the country in a east-west division

The current battle is happening in Kordofan Image
Apart from this frontline dividing Sudan, we still have 4 encircled army bases in the west, the main one being El Fasher, home to both the 6th army division and the former Darfuri rebels.

Encircled for 2 years, the army garrison faced important defeats lately. Image
Read 25 tweets
Sep 23
Après l'inauguration du Grand Barrage de la Renaissance, l'Ethiopie 🇪🇹 à la recherche d'un accès à la mer.

Dans la Corne de l'Afrique, la confrontation militaire couve. L'Ethiopie semble préparer une opération pour annexer le sud de l'Erythrée 🇪🇷.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️Image
Assab, Djibouti, Berbera. Trois ports, trois débouchés trois objectifs.

L'Ethiopie, en pleine croissance démographique et économique, qui vient d'inaugurer le GERD sur le Nil, veut sortir de son enclavement et ne plus dépendre de ses voisins pour exporter ses biens. Image
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Mais face à elle, seules trois options s'ouvrent : Djibouti ? Impensable, l'indépendance du pays est garantie par les occidentaux et sa localisation trop stratégique.
Read 17 tweets
Sep 22
L'histoire oubliée de l'occupation

Dans les territoires occupés du sud de l'Ukraine 🇺🇦 entre résistance discrète, russification forcée et reconstruction de façade

A Marioupol, Melitopol et Berdiansk, la Russie 🇷🇺 réorganise son "pont terrestre" vers la Crimée

🧵THREAD🧵1/23⬇️Image
Ils sont 3 à 5 millions d'oubliés. Ces ukrainiens, russophones ou non, pro-russes ou non qui sont à l'intérieur des territoires occupés par Moscou.

Si la majorité des ukrainiens occupés le sont depuis 2014 (à Donetsk, Louhansk et en Crimée (peut-être 2-2.5 millions en tout)... Image
...ce serait oublier les 500 000 à 1 millions d'ukrainiens qui sont tombés sous l'occupation russe en février-mars 2022 dans le sud du pays, dans les oblasts de Kherson, Zaporizhia et dans le sud de celui de Donetsk, à Marioupol.

Beaucoup sont partis mais beaucoup sont encore là Image
Read 23 tweets

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