Thread by @michael_hoerger

PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
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An estimated 1 in 81 people are actively infectious during the ongoing 11th wave.

The "shutdown" has created a blackout at the state level.

Transmission is half that of the peak one month ago, and we anticipate a relative national "lull" in early-to-mid November, albeit still at dangerous levels.

Our model uses a combination of CDC and Biobot data, so we are able to estimate national statistics despite the CDC data going offline. On the map, note that Puerto Rico continues to update; they use a CDC-style system but were dropped by the CDC long ago. For full methodology, review the technical appendix on the website.

PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
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#DuringCOVID is today. We estimate >600,000 new daily infections. This is about half the peak on September 6.

Notice current levels are similar to the estimated peaks of the first 3 waves.

PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
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Weekly estimates:
🔹4.5 million infections
🔹>200,000 resulting long-term health conditions
🔹>1,300 resulting excess deaths

PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
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Current estimates have closely tracked those of 2023. However, as we forecasted, they are starting to dip a bit lower.

Notice the relative national "lull" generally in early November.

PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
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We forecast dipping below 500,000 new daily infections in a couple weeks. These estimates are volatile without the CDC data.

PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
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There are no state-level updates this week. You may find last week's estimates helpful. In general, transmission is about 25% lower, but it's hard to know how much lower (or higher) in each state.

PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
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Table continued.

There are no state-level updates this week. You may find last week's estimates helpful. In general, transmission is about 25% lower, but it's hard to know how much lower (or higher) in each state.

PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
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Amid the CDC blackout, you can still find some state-level data through other sources.

See
There are state and international resources if you just scroll way down the dashboard page. pmc19.com/data/#states

PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
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3 state pharmacy boards are continuing to block access to boosters unless one has a prescription (& "high-risk" condition).

Please contact them to complain. Help keep our Louisiana-based team safer. 🙏