Thread by @muhammadshehad2

What's next for Gaza? 🧵
After the hostage release, Israel will hold onto a fully depopulated 58% of Gaza.

After an international force enters, Israel will hold onto 40% of Gaza where the IDF's proxy gangs will thrive!

Genocide or reconstruction? The devil is in the details!

2\ Right now, the 58% beyond the yellow line is not only under IDF control, it's fully depopulated. Any Gaza civilian that tries to enter is shot on sight. Israel killed 35 Gazans in the first 24 hours of the ceasefire.

Israel is planning to hold onto those areas for a long time

3\ Israel's proxy gangs (e.g. Abu Shabab, Husam al-Astal, Ashraf Mansi) are all currently hiding in the 58% of Gaza the IDF is stationed in

Israel cultivated those gangs to create "gated communities" (concentration camps) to push Gazans into.

Now with the ceasefire, Israel is using those gangs to launch attacks on Hamas deep inside Gaza without the IDF having to invade.

This is Israel's way of saying "we're not violating the ceasefire, it's Palestinians killing Palestinians."

Israel will also try to get Gazans to move into those areas with promises of a better life while the other half of Gaza remains reduced to rubble.
kan.org.il/content/kan-ne…

4\ Israel conditioned its withdrawal from an additional 18% of Gaza on the creation of an international force on the ground (IDF would still keep 40% of Gaza).

Hamas was okay with a similar force during the Jan-March 2025 ceasefire; an Egyptian-Qatari checkpoint in Netzarim

5\ But Israel's Defence Minister made clear today Netanyahu wants the international force to act as a subcontractor of the IDF & go after Hamas tunnels & infrastructure or else the IDF would

This would put the int. force & Hamas on collision course; as the latter would be seen as an occupying power trying to accomplish what Israel failed to do militarily over 24 months of genocide; dismantle Hamas & police Gazans into submission

6\ Israel conditioned the withdrawal to the "security buffer zone" (18% of gaza) on the int. force disarming Hamas

The earlier Trump plan talked only of "decommissioning" Hamas' "offensive weapons" (i.e. rockets/tunnels).

But Netanyahu changed it to "all military, terror & offensive infrastructure" which means fully stripping Hamas & all of Gaza of any weapons, including firearms or even knives, which is an elusive process that would allow Israel to never withdraw. It would also allow Israel to bomb Gaza at will & claim it was neutralising a Hamas cell (like Lebanon).

7\ The 58% Israel currently control are Gaza's food basket; almost all agricultural lands are there (most are in the 18% "security buffer zone").

Without those areas, Gazans would be entirely dependant on int. aid indefinitely, people would be overcrowding in half Gaza's area

8\ As Israel freezes the IDF withdrawal lines from Gaza & turns the genocide into a low-intensity campaign, the prospect of Israeli settlers moving in increases dramatically

A thousand settler families are already waiting at Gaza's borders with tents & caravans, ready to move in at the earliest chance.

israelhayom.co.il/news/local/art…

9\ Even if Hamas accepts all of Trump's plan unconditionally, in phase 2 of the negotiations, Israel would still retain 40% of Gaza, depopulated & occupied by the IDF, since the plan leaves it to Israel's discretion when & how to withdraw

The vague language on disarmament would allow Israel to claim that, even if Hamas lays down all its weapons, that there are still other smaller factions or terror cells or armed individuals who "pose a threat" to Israel (who's gonna verify those claims? you think Trump would?)

Israel can come up with an infinite amount of pretexts to keep its 40% of Gaza for as long as it wants (& possibly start moving settlers there). If Hamas or any other Palestinian armed factions try to challenge this, they would get all the blame for the collapse of the ceasefire!

10\ In other words, Israel just established a Berlin Wall-like line that is here to stay for long

IDF plans to continue to cultivate criminal gangs there, send them to carry out attacks on the ground while Israel bombs Gaza from air under flimsy pretexts. More aid will enter, but that's about it!

Reconstruction, rebuilding the economy, reopening Gaza to the world are all left to Israel's discretion

The agreed phase 1 of the plan currently talks about allowing temporary housing solutions (e.g. caravans, tents) & reconstructing hospitals & bakeries, but not the 92% of homes that have been destroyed.