Thread by @Jonpy99

1/ As promised, here’s the second part of the tank refurb and production research and BTRZ tank refurb/modernization capabilities! Since this has turned out waaaay too long, this first thread is mainly about T-90s!

2/ Here’s the previous threads, first about APCs, where I also explained the fundamentals and methodology:

3/ Then IFVs:

4/ And finally the first half of the thread about tanks, were we discussed T-54/55s, T-62s, T-64s and T-80s:

5/ And as always, first I want to thank @CovertCabal and @A36848080 in particular for helping with the sat imagery. Check Covert’s video on the topic as well!

6/ DISCLAIMER: many people will read this thread expecting to have all the answers and all claims properly backed by quantified data. Unfortunately, there’s a limit to OSINT, so I don’t have answers for questions like whether a T-72B hull can be made into a T-90"M" (obr. 2023).

7/ As I already explained several times in previous threads, Russia has switched to infantry-intensive tactics, as they have yielded better results when it comes to taking bigger amounts of Ukrainian territory:

8/ Therefore, it’s not surprising that the share of Russian AFV losses, including tank losses, has dramatically decreased:

9/ That said, they have most clearly risen in the last quarter of 2025, with more mechanized attacks:

10/ This was already much discussed, so now we’ll focus on the specifics of T-72 and T-90 production/refurb/modernization and the likely future of the Russian tank fleet.

11/ Unlike most types of tanks, T-72Bs and T-90s were the backbone of the Russian tank fleet before 2022 (tho small numbers of T-80s were also active), which means most units were staffed with these.

12/ This also means that, for the most part, T-72Bs and T-90s were present in storage depots in relatively small numbers:

13/ In the case of T-72s, almost half of those in storage were older T-72 Urals/As, pretty obsolete and mostly out of service bar some tank units of the Central Military District. In the case of T-90s, mostly original T-90s from the 1990s.

14/ Which means that, for over 4,319 tank losses according to Oryx, and with just ~3,000 tanks in service before the war, Russia had to press back into service a lot of older tank types, as we already saw in the previous thread to replenish losses.

15/ But of course, the most important thing when it comes to T-72s and 90s is that they are still being produced (refurbed and modernized in the case of 72s). Not just repairs like other tanks.

16/ So, let’s see how things have developed lately: we can see that overall T-72s and T-90s have remained at stable shares of the Russian tank losses over the war.

17/ Examining production rates will help us solve the enigma of how Russia is replenishing losses and how many of these tanks do they still have and produce.

18/ But, before starting with the actual analysis of UVZ and its production capabilities, it’s worth looking at the how the industry managed to scale up T-90M production.

19/ By now I think we all know about the classified UVZ documents leaked by @Tatarigami_UA and his Frontelligence Insight team.

20/ According to the leaked Russian procurement documents, there are plans to maintain and even slightly scale up Russian T-90M production and T-72B3 refurb/modernization rates.

21/ Despite many people’s skepticism, we have ample proof that by 2025 Russia has managed to scale up T-90M production (not refurb from older T-90s1) to ~200-250 units per year.

22/ Many people claim that we don’t have footage of these deliveries and that it’s all a Russia propaganda ruse. But we do have a lot of footage of T-90M and T-72B3 trainloads leaving UVZ.

23/ I’m just gonna post a bunch of videos to back it up, predicting a lot of answers to this thread saying that I’m a deluded idiot.

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26/ Obviously not everything is recorded, after all this is a military affair. Even just what we’ve seen is not all officially listed.

27/ For what my word is worth, I too have seen trainloads of tanks coming from UVZ that haven’t been published, nor I can share publicly.

28/ Some will claim that we have no proof of actual new production, that it’s all older original T-90s obr. 1992, T-90As and even T-90Ss seized from third countries like India that had ordered them.

29/ True, a batch of Indian T-90Ss in UVZ were seized when the war started, and some T-90As were modernized to T-90Ms.

30/ But the catch is that there were never that many older T-90s for all T-90Ms to be modernizations of the former. At all. Barely 1:2 T-90Ms were modernizations before the war.

31/ There were never enough older T-90s produced (and not exported to other militaries) for T-90M numbers to make sense if they were all modernizations of older hulls.

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34/ Russia has lost so far 48 T-90As, 11 T-90s and 152 T-90Ms. And to this we should add another 20-30% unseen losses, as always. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack… x.com/front_ukrainia…

35/ Before the war some original T-90s and T-90As had been converted to Ms, some T-90As given to Syria and in 2021 they had around 85 T-90Ms and converted more T-90As once the war started.

36/ We also found 112 older T-90s stored in the 22nd Central Tank Storage Base, which by 2023 were gone.

37/ And it’s likely there were some more indoors and in other places, like these seen T-90As stored in Crimea in 2022 and given to Wagner:

38/ But then, Russia is estimated to field over 370 T-90Ms at the start of 2025 according to TMB2025. We see production of these new MBTs at UVZ.

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42/ We see them everywhere in the rear, from Rovsgardia (let’s remember that after the Wagner coup in 2023 they started to receive tanks as well):

43/ In the rear everywhere (@WillKnowler for lots more proofs in this regard):

@WillKnowler 44/ And of course in the frontline. Yes, losses have decreased a lot, but so have all tank losses in the last year and half.

@WillKnowler 45/ Tho it’s worth pointing out that the last loss occurred a while ago and it didn’t have the most recent iteration of the T-90M, but rather an older upgrade package.

@WillKnowler 46/ Then again, with the increasing danger of drones and a static front, tanks have increasingly been used as artillery pieces, which makes them less visible:

@WillKnowler 47/ Some reliable proof from the actual frontline:

@WillKnowler 48/ And also, turtle tanks usually are of the more modern types of tanks, despite some thinking they’re rather old, decrepit tanks that have no other use:

@WillKnowler 49/

@WillKnowler 50/ For those saying that Russia not launching a massive mechanized attack is a sign of them having run out of hardware. See this: concentrations of assets are easily destroyed before they even reach the frontline.

@WillKnowler 51/ And, while it’s been said many times before, I’ll say it again: these new tactics have proven more cost-effective at taking Ukrainian positions. Mobility is the key now, at all costs, and they don’t care about their own men.

@WillKnowler 52/ Finally, the massive Russian army size expansion since late 2022 has too much to do with formations having less armor than what the doctrine says.

@WillKnowler 53/ And with new formations are created and implemented, the same amount of armor has to be distributed among them:

@WillKnowler 54/ As @Rebel44CZ explained so well yesterday in the quoted thread, Russia probably has a roughly equal tank fleet in size as it was prewar (with some caveats):

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ 55/ Tho I agree with @KofmanMichael here:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 56/ In any case, this fits precisely with what’s been discussed many times: Russia is reconstituting and replenishing its core army far from the front, while using cheap meat and obsolete equipment to keep pressuring Ukraine.

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 57/ Here’s a recent interview with some Russian tankers from the 1st GTA. Interesting to note that a commander says: “"With the advent of drones, we lost some of our equipment. We're now rebuilding our complement”. kp.ru/daily/27750.5/…

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 58/ To be honest, it shoudln’t come as a surprise:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 59/ But back to the matter of whether new T-90M are actually produced or mere modernizations, it’s also worth pointing out that despite unfeasible low numbers, T-90As are still seen, tho very rarely:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 60/ Just like some other systems like T-80Us, they’re a critically endangered species, probably in the low dozens ballpark left in service.

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 61/ And also in UVZ, but not being modernized, but rather just merely repaired.

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 62/ And we can also tell apart newly made T-90M hulls from T-90A modernizations, and T-90a modernizations aren’t too common:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 63/

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 64/

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 65/

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 66/ Even field repairs suggest active productions, as otherwise these spare parts would be extremely hard to find in the rear direct to the actual frontline:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 67/ Russia also anticipated the problem of using Western-made components and switched to other sources not threatened by sanctions:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 68/ With ALL THIS EVIDENCE to back up that there’s actual newly made T-90M production, let’s go back to Tatarigami’s info. See what the planned production figures are:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 69/ We can also see what’s actually produced vs refurbed/modernized:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 70/ And the types of tanks, which surprisingly includes T-72B/B1s and T-72B3/B3Ms for T-90M2s:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 71/ True, 2026 is an odd year for some unclear reason with minimum planned output, but the overall trend matches the current 200-250 T-90M rate. And it also shows intention of further improving T-90M capabilities, with the M2 version:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 72/

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 73/ Some more information on the T-90M2:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 74/

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 75/ Which fits too with the ongoing research and production of new upgrade packages for T-90Ms (and also T-80BVMs and T-72B3s):

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 76/

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 77/ It’s also notable that past 2029 there is no more planned actual production, but only overhauls and modernizations:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 78/ While not mentioned at all, we also have to consider armored vehicles based on the T-90, like engineering ones:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 79/ There’s no shortage of data about the actual technicalities of procuring parts for the production and modernization of all these tanks:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 80/ Not just Western, OSINT and Russian sources back up this production rate, but also Ukrainian ones:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 81/ And also the appearance since mid 2025 of ~40 T-90s in the yards outside UVZ, probably there precisely to be modernized according to this plan.

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 82/ AND also ~100 T-72Bs coming from the 1311th central tank storage base, which hadn’t seen activity for over 2 years.

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 83/ Coincidentally, the amount of T-72Bs to be modernized to T-90M2s, as seen before, is similar to the amount in the 1311th at the start of 2025: 263 T-72Bs. Now it’s dropped since a hundred were already shipped to UVZ.

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 84/ As a temporary conclusion, by now I think we all agree that Russia is indeed producing 200-250 new T-90Ms per year as of 2025, with some more modernizations of older tanks, and has developed ways to stop the previous armor attrition in Ukraine.

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 85/ In conclusion, by now I think we all agree that Russia is indeed producing 200-250 new T-90Ms per year as of 2025, with some more modernizations of older tanks, and has developed ways to stop the previous armor attrition in Ukraine.

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 86/ Just to make it clear, there is my estimation:

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 87/ Now, I don’t know how exactly they're gonna turn T-72Bs into T-90M2s, that’s far from my expertise. But there’s something else to consider, and that’s stored T-72s…

@WillKnowler @Rebel44CZ @KofmanMichael 88/ That’s for now! More on that in the (I hope) third and last part of tanks, particularly T-72s, and BTRZs! Kudos to everyone, in this case specially @WillKnowler, @Rhaescuporis and @T_90AK for obvious reasons, and also Raptorama for making the graphics! Thanks everyone!