I have been interviewing a number of regional military experts on significance of Turkey's deployment of three F-16 Vipers in Somalia and here is the gist of the broad consensus:
💠F-16s are powerful tools designed for sophisticated, conventional conflict. Lethal in degrading static enemy frontlines, assets, defences, installations. In rural and urban asymmetric warfare, where there is no fixed frontline, their efficacy 'highly circumscribed.' F-16s are labour intensive, medium-range, require more fuel, special runways. One expert says drones are cheaper, perhaps more effective and versatile than F-16s in the type of guerilla warfare now raging in Somalia.
💠As tools for interdicting unauthorised aircraft/deter airspace intrusion they could be effective, and are specially designed for 'dog fights.' But 3 F-16s cannot effectively police a large airspace, and even less enforce a 'no-fly zone.' That would require a larger fleet, a network of runways and logistical hubs to repair, refit, refuel, in addition to greater manpower.
💠The main purpose for the deployment of the F-16s is to respond quickly to specific conventional ground and aerial threats against specific strategic/key installations, troop positions. In tandem with helicopter gunships, F-16s can deliver massive kinetic force and with extraordinary speed.
💠On reconnaissance, the jets have superior ISR capabilities and can cover long distances quickly. Drawback is cost. Drones are getting better and can deliver better imagery at relatively lower costs. In fact, on this point, one said the Akinci UAV is more dependable.
💠Based on some of these considerations it would seem the Turkish F-16s will play minimal role in defending Mogadishu or prosecuting the campaign against Al-Shabaab. These jets serve a powerful symbolic function: they project superior might, aim to reassure even when in reality they cannot change the dynamic of the war in any significant way.
"These shiny toys alone cannot change the battlefield or alter the course of the war," said one.
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