🧵ANALYSIS The real secret behind the HSM-Madoobe feud

If you have a long memory - like me - you may recall Hassan Sheikh's long antipathy towards Jubaland. It started in 2013 when Jubaland was just being established with help from Kenya. The fight with Jubaland, which started in HSM's first term, continues to play out today in his second term.

The script and plot remain almost the same.

Analysis/Somalia/C6+:

On Wednesday, Somalia disavowed a forum that brings together leading international and regional partners of Somalia, among them The UN, US,UK, EU, Ethiopia, Kenya, IGAD.

Somalia declared it would no longer recognise or cooperate with the C6+ - set up to coordinate international support for Somalia's pacification and state-building and promote constitutionalism and inclusive politics.

Full statement:
The announcement by the State Minister Ali Balcad (the de facto foreign minister, a close associate of President Hassan Sheikh) has caught many by surprise.

So what could be the key motive?

A thread on Somali federalism:

A healthy federal and democratic system allows for periodic adjustments depending on changing need and context and based on wider consensus.

But the arbitrary processes of new unilateral territorial carve-ups under the HSM regime can trigger wider instability and conflict. The decision to declare SSC-Khatumo a federal state by Mogadishu risks to further deepen Somalia's fragmentation, upend decades of consensual federalisation and state-building.

And here are 4 reasons why:

1. Creating a new federal state is a delicate affair. Two or more regions can come together in a single federated unit but on condition this emerges out of broad regional consensus, after exhaustive consultations with all clans. Villa Somalia took a shortcut, flouted two decades of state-building tradition. The SSC admin has not consulted the Warsangeli and other resident clans in the Sool and Sanaag region, neither has it consulted with Puntland and Somaliland.

On the Geopolitics and Geoeconomics of Somali Fragmentation.

A thread:

Today, SSC leader Firdhiye met Qatari ambassador in Mogadishu.

China, Qatar and oil industry players have in last one year developed close ties with SSC - and for different reasons.

Beijing keen to support local dissent to Somaliland, groom SSC as potential proxy to counter Taiwan's rapidly growing relations with Somaliland. Qatar traditionally pro-Mogadishu, enjoys close ties with Islamist factions, opposed to UAE influence in Somaliland, Puntland and wider Red Sea arena.

#BREAKING

A silent row is brewing between Egypt and Somalia over implementation of a military/security pact.

Cairo is believed to be upset by HSM's 'inability to stay committed to the partnership with Egypt,' according to multiple sources I spoke to.

Cairo, in fact, may have already signalled to HSM it no longer deems him a 'reliable partner' and may not actually deploy troops to Somalia as originally planned.

A thread:

*⃣Cairo had initially pledged to deploy over 1,000 special forces to the towns of Adan Yabaal and Cadaale in the Middle Shabelle to fight against Al-Shabaab.That plan has been thrown awry by the swift advance of AS across much of the Shabelle Valley. Burundian troops are withdrawing. With many of the FOBs vacated by African peacekeepers in Shabelle reverting to AS control, Cairo is increasingly nervous and just wondering whether it might not be too late. *⃣ It is now clear no state or entity has stepped forward to fund the Egyptian mission to Somalia. Attempts by Somalia to seek help from Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have all not borne fruit. Cairo is severely cash-strapped despite its 'strong enthusiasm to put boots on the ground' according to sources. Without a clear funding commitment from Somalis it may not deploy troops.

Gaming an Ethiopia-Egypt war (a thread)

Egypt cannot conduct direct warfare with Ethiopia. It doesn’t share a border with Horn state.

To do that will require investment in aircraft careers, long-range expeditionary strike capabilities.

Its helicopter career fleet expanding. Egyptian Navy warships capable of carrying and delivering ballistic short and medium range missiles. To threaten Ethiopia its small fleet of submarines and frigates will need to move close to the Bab el-Mandeb (this explains why Egypt angered by the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU)

#ALERT more updates on looted weapons in Abudwaq Somalia

Thread

Arms market in central Somalia flooded with cheap AK-47s looted from two lorries ferrying weapons to pro-government militia Macawiisley.

AK prices at Abudwaq market today 400 USD (in Mogadishu 1400 USD)



Arms shipment was bought by a pro-government businessman from Galmudug who belongs to the Sa'ad Habar Gedir clan (name withheld) from Ethiopian suppliers at an estimated price of 5m USD. They included AK-47s, sniper rifles, RPGs, assortment of ammunition.

Today marks 1 yr since HSM took office. (Thread)

Assessment:

*One of year of good, but largely mixed performance. Strong push against AS. Progress stymied by poor planning.

*Next phase of war must be better coordinated, better planned. No use taking territory if you can't hold *Big credit for appointment of President Waare. There is need to reframe security stabilisation policy. Put more emphasis on locally-appropriate forces or State Darawiish.

Some thoughts on #Sudan's Jeddah accord: (Thread)

*RSF, SAF have no incentive for ceasefire at this point. Each side confident of victory.

*RSF has taken heavy hits but holding ground in key parts of Khartoum.

*Fight existential. One man must be left standing. *RSF's biggest tactical advantage is fighting in urban setting. Civilians are its shield. It cannot allow corridors for civilian exit.

*If dislodged, it can retreat to Darfur, make perihery ungovernable.

*RSF will resist calls to let civilians leave areas under its control.

Al-Shabaab now involved in Laas Anood violence.

This is no longer just a claim by Somaliland. intelligence agencies operating in the Horn now deem info credible.

A thread: Al-Shabaab is said to have sent 150 of its Dhulbahante fighters to join the SSC units massed in Buhoodle. A total of 500 joint SSC-AS fighters sent to the front

Profiling Gen Wereda 1/6

Lieutenant General Tadesse Wereda became known to the international community when he was appointed as Force Commander for the UN Interim Security Force in Abyei (on the Sudan-South Sudan border) in June 2011. UNISFA was set up to control the area and prevent a war between Sudan and South Sudan. Gen. Tadesse deployed his troops at a speed rarely if ever equalled in the history of UN peacekeeping.

A thread:

A war is looming between Tigray and Ethiopia. This time it will be devastating and a fight to the death I appeal to African statesmen @PaulKagame AU chairperson Senegal's Macky Sall and Thabo Mbeki to intervene to prevent a conflagration.

A thread on Robow

Myth: Robow unrepentant

Fact: Left AS 2013, relocated to home district, fought off multiple attempts to assassinate him by AS, came to Mogadishu, recanted AS ideology, denounced it, sought "to help government tackle AS ideology", spoke out against violence. Conducted secret talks with Somalis and non-Somalis to assure them he is a changed man and was willing to support efforts to counter Al-Shabaab.

A thread on stigmatising women who sell qat:

A campaign is underway in northern Kenya led by ulema to compel suuqley market women to abandon selling qat.

The campaign slogan is "proceeds from qat haram".

All may seem sensible, nice, even, but think hard about implications. Estimated 150k women depend on qat trade for their livelihood. Cumulatively this translates into roughly 800k families directly dependent on qat.

Out of a population of 2.+ million, this is a significant chunk.

A thread on qat controversy:

For four years Farmaajo and his family monopolised import and distribution of Ethiopian qat. Abolutionists seemed OK with it. All of a sudden abolitionists are in uproar because Kenya will be able to export its qat to Somalia.

Note double standards. Humans have been addicted to one substance or other since dawn of history. Ancient civilisations experimented with many types of plant-based highs. Drugs were even essential to worship, ritual.

History of humanity is a history of highs. 😂

#BREAKING

Get ready to be astounded.

A group of supporters of ex-president Farmaajo have approached the Danish chapter of Architects Without Borders to help design a complex for him, comprising residential quarters, community centre and library.

Thread. Leaked emails obtained from a credible source show a lady by name Anisa Abdi Isse, who claims to represent an organisation by the name "Dansomala Association" on 3 June wrote to the AWB about an "exciting" project to honour the ex-president for "his fight against corruption".

I have launched my manifesto to become Somalia's next president. Below are my priorities:

*Call constitutional conference in first quarter, deliver permanent constitution in one year,

1/5 *Immediately start inclusive dialogue to discuss future of Somalia, chart a clear political road plan to properly "federalise" country,

*Revise National Security Plan in 1st year to rebuild coherent army, police, security,

If you think Kenya’s arid northeast is economic wasteland, think again.

This week, Kenyan regional development minister @AdanMohamedCS commissioned a gum arabic and resins factory in Wajir, said to be the largest in Africa.

Thread 1/6 Wajir County is home to rarest species of trees that produce gum arabic, myrrh and frankincense. The trees grow in the wild.

The factory will turn these much sort after products into essential oils used in perfumery, medicine and food industry.

Use of drones in Tigray war started Nov 2020. Abiy's forces deployed a team of mercenaries to conduct decapitation strikes on Tigrayan leaders.

Drones used throughout war. At first Wing Loong II, then Bayraktar TB2

US pressure on supplier saw diminished UAV usage Jan-June.

/7 Dramatic spikes noted after June setback of the ENDF. Abiy went to Turkey signed new defence agreement in August.

ethiopianmonitor.com/2021/08/18/eth…