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Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ

Feb 6, 30 tweets

1/ Russia's battlefield communications are reportedly "in chaos" following the Starlink shutdown. Communications specialists are said to be scrambling to find alternative solutions, while warbloggers advocate torturing Ukrainian PoWs to get their Starlink passwords. ⬇️

2/ Yuri Podolyak writes:

"So, what everyone had long feared, but secretly hoped wouldn't happen until the end of the Special Military Operation has happened. Elon Musk flipped the switch, and 80% of Starlink terminals on the front line went down."

3/ "Moreover, it's highly likely that on our side, this will soon reach 100%, and only Russian ingenuity can attempt to circumvent it. And they will probably circumvent it somehow. But not with a return to 100% functionality as of yesterday morning.

4/ "But until that's done, our communications are in chaos. The enemy's communications are currently in the same chaos, but the outlook is different. Their terminals will sooner or later be whitelisted and restore functionality. Maybe not completely, but to a greater extent."

5/ 'NGP razVedka' acknowledges that the shutdown is having an impact, but says that it will be mitigated in time as alternatives are found:

6/ "1. No, it cannot affect strikes deep into enemy territory. Starlink has only recently begun to be used for final-flight corrections, and by no means on all drones.

7/ "However, this is precisely what caused the Ukrainians to become so hysterical about this topic and the corresponding appeal to Musk.

2. No, it does not affect aerial reconnaissance or further intelligence.

8/ "3. Yes, it will have a certain impact on internet availability in the field.

4. Yes, there are no alternatives at all, right now.

5. There is a Gazprom dish; it works, but, to put it mildly, it is inferior in connection speed and needs to be developed or improved.

9/ "6. Of course, high-speed internet can be brought to the field using other methods; it is technically possible, and many are currently working on it.

7. Yes, there are ways to verify Starlink that will allow you to bypass the blocking, but this will take some time.

10/ "8. Yes, there are Chinese equivalents that we're currently considering importing and launching privately.

9. Yes, they're promising us a Russian equivalent next year, but promises are a far cry from promises.

11/ "10. Yes, any Ukrainian who tries to giggle or grunt about this should go to hell, since their misfit country not only lacks its own satellite internet, but has never had anything of its own. A tribe of ragamuffins, they can do nothing but wag their tongues.

12/ "⚠️ 11. Yes, Ukrainian cell phone towers and mobile internet can and should be used; the technology is proven, the Ukrainians know this, and there's nothing to hide.

13/ "Yes, they will also be without internet during drone attacks—as an answer to those who complain, "Why don't the Ukrainian authorities shut down the internet for the Ukrainians?"

12. No, the strikes won't become less widespread."

14/ 'Obsessed with war' says that "it's time to pull out two-year-old proposals that were immediately dismissed by the Ministry of Defence as unsuitable for use on the front lines."

15/ "The idea was to deploy a network of LTE base stations in close proximity to the front lines, including in the 900 and 450 MHz bands, which, while losing in bandwidth, gain in propagation range, allowing a larger area to be covered with fewer base stations.

16/ "The arguments against it back then were simple, mothballed, and similar to our Ministry of Defence as a whole:

17/ "1) The enemy's all-powerful electronic warfare system will immediately identify them and destroy them (rule number 1 of the Russian Ministry of Defence: "What if something happens, who will be responsible?")

"2) It will never pass the 8th Directorate.

18/ "3) We won't be able to purchase it, it's unlicenced.

[The answers:]

"1) Naturally, they will identify and destroy. In war, everyone is busy identifying and destroying. But everyone is fighting (except the Black Sea Fleet).

19/ "2) The presence of the 8th Directorate (with its former bribe-taking boss, now in pretrial detention) didn't stop them from fighting on the Starlink-Telegram network all this time.

"3) The lack of a licence didn't stop them from buying almost everything they use now.

20/ "Operators have the capabilities, and even industry has some.

There are also reserves of stations and mobile stations for emergencies and mass events.

21/ "As always, the only thing missing is the desire and the will.

It's time to stop being afraid of ourselves and provide the troops with communications.

22/ "LTE won't even come close to replacing Starlink, but it can certainly solve some of the problems ... In addition, it will be possible to immediately integrate these base stations with other wired and radio communication channels available in the troops."

23/ 'Russian Engineer' writes that "the primary backbone communications on the front lines currently rely on fiber optics and radio bridges. Starlink is very important, a convenient niche for its tasks, but it's not the foundation of frontline communications."

24/ "We need to develop firmware, other mechanisms to bypass the blockade, and create alternative communication methods for the front lines...

25/ "And those units that have always created backup communication systems in parallel with Starlink are now in a much better position; the rest will have to catch up.

26/ "And when the blocking bypasses are operational, we will still need to continue to back up communication systems, because a reliable military command and control system cannot be built on someone else's resources."

27/ On the other hand, two warbloggers write, why not just torture Ukrainian PoWs until they give up their Starlink login details?

28/ Roman Saponkov comments: "Incidentally, yesterday the cost of documents for a captured Ukrainian went up (the body itself isn't needed, so he doesn't appear on the lists). Yesterday, Musk strongly encouraged people not to take prisoners."

29/ 'Combat Reserve' puts it more bluntly: "First things first: get the account details from the captured Ukrainian. Cut off his ears for the account." /end

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