1/ Russia's battlefield communications are reportedly "in chaos" following the Starlink shutdown. Communications specialists are said to be scrambling to find alternative solutions, while warbloggers advocate torturing Ukrainian PoWs to get their Starlink passwords. ⬇️
2/ Yuri Podolyak writes:
"So, what everyone had long feared, but secretly hoped wouldn't happen until the end of the Special Military Operation has happened. Elon Musk flipped the switch, and 80% of Starlink terminals on the front line went down."
3/ "Moreover, it's highly likely that on our side, this will soon reach 100%, and only Russian ingenuity can attempt to circumvent it. And they will probably circumvent it somehow. But not with a return to 100% functionality as of yesterday morning.
4/ "But until that's done, our communications are in chaos. The enemy's communications are currently in the same chaos, but the outlook is different. Their terminals will sooner or later be whitelisted and restore functionality. Maybe not completely, but to a greater extent."
5/ 'NGP razVedka' acknowledges that the shutdown is having an impact, but says that it will be mitigated in time as alternatives are found:
6/ "1. No, it cannot affect strikes deep into enemy territory. Starlink has only recently begun to be used for final-flight corrections, and by no means on all drones.
7/ "However, this is precisely what caused the Ukrainians to become so hysterical about this topic and the corresponding appeal to Musk.
2. No, it does not affect aerial reconnaissance or further intelligence.
8/ "3. Yes, it will have a certain impact on internet availability in the field.
4. Yes, there are no alternatives at all, right now.
5. There is a Gazprom dish; it works, but, to put it mildly, it is inferior in connection speed and needs to be developed or improved.
9/ "6. Of course, high-speed internet can be brought to the field using other methods; it is technically possible, and many are currently working on it.
7. Yes, there are ways to verify Starlink that will allow you to bypass the blocking, but this will take some time.
10/ "8. Yes, there are Chinese equivalents that we're currently considering importing and launching privately.
9. Yes, they're promising us a Russian equivalent next year, but promises are a far cry from promises.
11/ "10. Yes, any Ukrainian who tries to giggle or grunt about this should go to hell, since their misfit country not only lacks its own satellite internet, but has never had anything of its own. A tribe of ragamuffins, they can do nothing but wag their tongues.
12/ "⚠️ 11. Yes, Ukrainian cell phone towers and mobile internet can and should be used; the technology is proven, the Ukrainians know this, and there's nothing to hide.
13/ "Yes, they will also be without internet during drone attacks—as an answer to those who complain, "Why don't the Ukrainian authorities shut down the internet for the Ukrainians?"
12. No, the strikes won't become less widespread."
14/ 'Obsessed with war' says that "it's time to pull out two-year-old proposals that were immediately dismissed by the Ministry of Defence as unsuitable for use on the front lines."
15/ "The idea was to deploy a network of LTE base stations in close proximity to the front lines, including in the 900 and 450 MHz bands, which, while losing in bandwidth, gain in propagation range, allowing a larger area to be covered with fewer base stations.
16/ "The arguments against it back then were simple, mothballed, and similar to our Ministry of Defence as a whole:
17/ "1) The enemy's all-powerful electronic warfare system will immediately identify them and destroy them (rule number 1 of the Russian Ministry of Defence: "What if something happens, who will be responsible?")
"2) It will never pass the 8th Directorate.
18/ "3) We won't be able to purchase it, it's unlicenced.
[The answers:]
"1) Naturally, they will identify and destroy. In war, everyone is busy identifying and destroying. But everyone is fighting (except the Black Sea Fleet).
19/ "2) The presence of the 8th Directorate (with its former bribe-taking boss, now in pretrial detention) didn't stop them from fighting on the Starlink-Telegram network all this time.
"3) The lack of a licence didn't stop them from buying almost everything they use now.
20/ "Operators have the capabilities, and even industry has some.
There are also reserves of stations and mobile stations for emergencies and mass events.
21/ "As always, the only thing missing is the desire and the will.
It's time to stop being afraid of ourselves and provide the troops with communications.
22/ "LTE won't even come close to replacing Starlink, but it can certainly solve some of the problems ... In addition, it will be possible to immediately integrate these base stations with other wired and radio communication channels available in the troops."
23/ 'Russian Engineer' writes that "the primary backbone communications on the front lines currently rely on fiber optics and radio bridges. Starlink is very important, a convenient niche for its tasks, but it's not the foundation of frontline communications."
24/ "We need to develop firmware, other mechanisms to bypass the blockade, and create alternative communication methods for the front lines...
25/ "And those units that have always created backup communication systems in parallel with Starlink are now in a much better position; the rest will have to catch up.
26/ "And when the blocking bypasses are operational, we will still need to continue to back up communication systems, because a reliable military command and control system cannot be built on someone else's resources."
27/ On the other hand, two warbloggers write, why not just torture Ukrainian PoWs until they give up their Starlink login details?
28/ Roman Saponkov comments: "Incidentally, yesterday the cost of documents for a captured Ukrainian went up (the body itself isn't needed, so he doesn't appear on the lists). Yesterday, Musk strongly encouraged people not to take prisoners."
29/ 'Combat Reserve' puts it more bluntly: "First things first: get the account details from the captured Ukrainian. Cut off his ears for the account." /end
1/ The Russian government's lackdaisical response to Ukrainian drone strikes on Tuapse, which have caused an environmental disaster, has caused growing anger among Russian commentators. They foresee "the beginning of a major logistical collapse." ⬇️
2/ A scathing commentary on the 'Federation Towers' Telegram channel ('Towers' is a euphemism for the Kremlin's factions) blames the increasingly disastrous situation in Tuapse and elsewhere on official buck-passing, corruption, cover-ups, and a reluctance to take responsibility:
3/ "Burning oil on the streets of Tuapse and ten thousand square meters of fuel oil in the Black Sea are more than just an environmental disaster. They are the direct cost of bureaucratic negligence and the desire to profit from the budget.
1/ Even as Ukraine ramps up its use of unmanned ground vehicles, demand for Russian UGVs has reportedly collapsed and all of their developers are facing bankruptcy for lack of demand. The reason is the blocking of Starlink for the Russian side. ⬇️
2/ Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev writes about the currently disastrous state of Russian UGV deployments, which were reliant on Starlink access but can no longer be used effectively since the cutoff in February:
3/ "In short: while the enemy is ramping up their use, the Russian Armed Forces are scaling back. And it’s not because they’re in short supply—there are thousands of them sitting in the military depots.
1/ As another Russian oil installation goes up in flames, Russian warbloggers are frustrated at the continued failure of their air defences. 'Fighterbomber' says that the scaling back of the Moscow May Day Parade shows their lack of reliability. ⬇️
2/ 'Fighterbomber' is scornful of the anodyne tone of an official announcement about the attack:
"One fucking drone—its debris, naturally—caused a bit of a Armageddon in Perm. If there had been two, it’s too scary to imagine what would have happened."
3/ "And so the official basically wrote that the country’s entire air defence system couldn’t handle a single drone. In other words, drag him to the chopping block where they chop off the heads of those who discredit the regime.
1/ One of Israel's largest grain importers has been identified as the customer for 26,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain currently aboard the ship Panormitis. Zenziper says it did not know the grain was stolen and is waiting for government instructions. ⬇️
2/ The Israeli news website The Marker reports that Zenziper, the leading player in Israel’s grain import market, has a sales agreement with a Russian company to buy an estimated $7 million worth of grain aboard the Panormitis, which is currently waiting to dock off Haifa.
3/ The company says that "we have a sales agreement to purchase wheat, and if we violate it, the Russian supplier will sue us and win. If there is a [Israeli] government directive not to unload the goods, that will change the situation."
1/ Tuapse is on fire again, and once again Russians are asking why their air defences are so inadequate. Prominent Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev blames the lack of any clearly defined responsibility for air defence.
2/ Chadayev is the head of the Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre, a leading Russian drone development group. In a commentary on his Telegram channel, he highlights how disorganisation and unclear responsibilities are undermining Russian air defences.
3/ This is in marked contrast to Ukraine, where the Ukrainian Air Force is responsible for a highly organised, multi-layered, hybrid system which incorporates sophisticated detection systems with dispersed and mobile countermeasures. Russia has never been able to replicate this.
1/ The Russian officer who oversaw the occupation of Bucha in 2022, during which an estimated 458 Ukrainians were murdered, has been targeted by a bomb attack in the Russian Far East. Major General Azatbek Omurbekov's condition is currently unknown; another officer was killed. ⬇️
2/ According to VChK-OGPU, the attack took place on 28 April at a military garrison located in the village of Knyaze-Volkonskoye-1 in the Khabarovsk Krai. A bomb exploded in a mailbox, killing Lieutenant Colonel Kuzmenko, the commander of the training communications battalion.
3/ The target appears to have been Major General Azatbek Omurbekov, who has been the head of the 392nd District Training Centre for Junior Specialists of the Eastern Military District since 2023.