1/ Russia's battlefield communications are reportedly "in chaos" following the Starlink shutdown. Communications specialists are said to be scrambling to find alternative solutions, while warbloggers advocate torturing Ukrainian PoWs to get their Starlink passwords. ⬇️
2/ Yuri Podolyak writes:
"So, what everyone had long feared, but secretly hoped wouldn't happen until the end of the Special Military Operation has happened. Elon Musk flipped the switch, and 80% of Starlink terminals on the front line went down."
3/ "Moreover, it's highly likely that on our side, this will soon reach 100%, and only Russian ingenuity can attempt to circumvent it. And they will probably circumvent it somehow. But not with a return to 100% functionality as of yesterday morning.
4/ "But until that's done, our communications are in chaos. The enemy's communications are currently in the same chaos, but the outlook is different. Their terminals will sooner or later be whitelisted and restore functionality. Maybe not completely, but to a greater extent."
5/ 'NGP razVedka' acknowledges that the shutdown is having an impact, but says that it will be mitigated in time as alternatives are found:
6/ "1. No, it cannot affect strikes deep into enemy territory. Starlink has only recently begun to be used for final-flight corrections, and by no means on all drones.
7/ "However, this is precisely what caused the Ukrainians to become so hysterical about this topic and the corresponding appeal to Musk.
2. No, it does not affect aerial reconnaissance or further intelligence.
8/ "3. Yes, it will have a certain impact on internet availability in the field.
4. Yes, there are no alternatives at all, right now.
5. There is a Gazprom dish; it works, but, to put it mildly, it is inferior in connection speed and needs to be developed or improved.
9/ "6. Of course, high-speed internet can be brought to the field using other methods; it is technically possible, and many are currently working on it.
7. Yes, there are ways to verify Starlink that will allow you to bypass the blocking, but this will take some time.
10/ "8. Yes, there are Chinese equivalents that we're currently considering importing and launching privately.
9. Yes, they're promising us a Russian equivalent next year, but promises are a far cry from promises.
11/ "10. Yes, any Ukrainian who tries to giggle or grunt about this should go to hell, since their misfit country not only lacks its own satellite internet, but has never had anything of its own. A tribe of ragamuffins, they can do nothing but wag their tongues.
12/ "⚠️ 11. Yes, Ukrainian cell phone towers and mobile internet can and should be used; the technology is proven, the Ukrainians know this, and there's nothing to hide.
13/ "Yes, they will also be without internet during drone attacks—as an answer to those who complain, "Why don't the Ukrainian authorities shut down the internet for the Ukrainians?"
12. No, the strikes won't become less widespread."
14/ 'Obsessed with war' says that "it's time to pull out two-year-old proposals that were immediately dismissed by the Ministry of Defence as unsuitable for use on the front lines."
15/ "The idea was to deploy a network of LTE base stations in close proximity to the front lines, including in the 900 and 450 MHz bands, which, while losing in bandwidth, gain in propagation range, allowing a larger area to be covered with fewer base stations.
16/ "The arguments against it back then were simple, mothballed, and similar to our Ministry of Defence as a whole:
17/ "1) The enemy's all-powerful electronic warfare system will immediately identify them and destroy them (rule number 1 of the Russian Ministry of Defence: "What if something happens, who will be responsible?")
"2) It will never pass the 8th Directorate.
18/ "3) We won't be able to purchase it, it's unlicenced.
[The answers:]
"1) Naturally, they will identify and destroy. In war, everyone is busy identifying and destroying. But everyone is fighting (except the Black Sea Fleet).
19/ "2) The presence of the 8th Directorate (with its former bribe-taking boss, now in pretrial detention) didn't stop them from fighting on the Starlink-Telegram network all this time.
"3) The lack of a licence didn't stop them from buying almost everything they use now.
20/ "Operators have the capabilities, and even industry has some.
There are also reserves of stations and mobile stations for emergencies and mass events.
21/ "As always, the only thing missing is the desire and the will.
It's time to stop being afraid of ourselves and provide the troops with communications.
22/ "LTE won't even come close to replacing Starlink, but it can certainly solve some of the problems ... In addition, it will be possible to immediately integrate these base stations with other wired and radio communication channels available in the troops."
23/ 'Russian Engineer' writes that "the primary backbone communications on the front lines currently rely on fiber optics and radio bridges. Starlink is very important, a convenient niche for its tasks, but it's not the foundation of frontline communications."
24/ "We need to develop firmware, other mechanisms to bypass the blockade, and create alternative communication methods for the front lines...
25/ "And those units that have always created backup communication systems in parallel with Starlink are now in a much better position; the rest will have to catch up.
26/ "And when the blocking bypasses are operational, we will still need to continue to back up communication systems, because a reliable military command and control system cannot be built on someone else's resources."
27/ On the other hand, two warbloggers write, why not just torture Ukrainian PoWs until they give up their Starlink login details?
28/ Roman Saponkov comments: "Incidentally, yesterday the cost of documents for a captured Ukrainian went up (the body itself isn't needed, so he doesn't appear on the lists). Yesterday, Musk strongly encouraged people not to take prisoners."
29/ 'Combat Reserve' puts it more bluntly: "First things first: get the account details from the captured Ukrainian. Cut off his ears for the account." /end
1/ Russia isn't winning in Ukraine and it's all the fault of Russian society, says an angry Russian warblogger. Seeking an explanation for why (in the eyes of warbloggers) Russia has not yet started "fighting for real", he blames ordinary Russians for apathy and cowardice. ⬇️
2/ Russian society has been massively atomised under the rule of Vladimir Putin, with the near-destruction of most civil society organisations (apart from a limited number approved of or tolerated by the state). Passive subservience is welcomed; collective action is discouraged.
3/ This nuance seems to have passed by the author of the 'It's Time To Go Home ZOV' Telegram channel, who thinks that his fellow citizens, rather than the oppressive regime they live under, are to blame for the current situation:
1/ Wildberries sellers are generally blaming the Russian government, rather than Ukraine, for their losses. It's an interesting and striking dynamic, which Russian warbloggers say the Russian government itself has created through its suppression of bad news. ⬇️
2/ Over the last couple of weeks, Russian social media has been flooded with videos of distraught Wildberries sellers weeping over their huge losses as a result of Ukrainian drone strikes against warehouses across Russia.
3/ Tens to hundreds of thousands of small and medium-sized businesses have lost much if not all of their stock, with total financial losses just from inventory alone already reckoned to be in the billions of dollars. Ukraine, however, has received surprisingly little blame.
1/ A rare Russian armoured assault on 22 June ended in disaster, with the loss of numerous vehicles and the reported deaths of scores of Russians. Russian warbloggers are scathing about the losses, seeing the attack as incompetent. ⬇️
2/ FT military correspondent Andrey Filatov is highly critical, using a standard euphemism for the Russian army to evade censorship:
3/ "The enemy's video report is all standard fare: analog FPV, fiber optics, Mavics. The new thing is a strike wing approaching a stationary "shed" [turtle tank] All these threats can be worked on, but they're not for the brilliant commanders of the Laotian army...
1/ Vladimir Putin has strongly hinted that Russia should claim the entire eastern half of Ukraine, going far beyond the existing annexation of the Donbas and southern Ukraine. He foresees a future in which western Ukraine is also annexed by its neighbours. ⬇️
2/ In a meeting with sailors in St Petersburg to mark Navy Day today, Putin extensively discussed Russia's historical rights over Ukraine, highlighting in the process his obsession with Russian and Ukrainian history and his dubious reading of it.
3/ He told them that "Ukraine has always been divided into Left-Bank and Right-Bank. Left-Bank Ukraine has always been considered not just Russia-oriented, but part of Russia."
1/ Vladimir Putin is today celebrating the 330th anniversary of the Russian Navy. However, it's a muted, shrunken event held under the shadow of Ukrainian drone strikes and with the Black Sea Fleet blockaded in Novorossiysk. Russian commentators fear for the Navy's future. ⬇️
2/ Putin has today been at the Main Admiralty of the Russian Navy in St. Petersburg for Navy Day to mark the Navy's 330th anniversary since its foundation under Peter the Great. He spoke of the Navy and Marines' "important role in the Special Military Operation."
3/ "Shipborne complexes are delivering devastating strikes against the enemy with high-precision weapons. Marines are advancing, fighting bravely, skillfully, and fearlessly. The entire country supports them and awaits their return home with victory."
1/ A Russian commander has reportedly come up with a novel form of 'flag-sticking', the practice of planting flags in Ukrainian-held territory to falsely report advances. He was reportedly caught using AI to fake flag-sticking events to conceal his territorial losses. ⬇️
2/ 'Donetsk Infantry' has posted an insight into the problems that the Russian command is continuing to have. with false reports from the ground. These have led to the war being fought on the basis of grossly inaccurate control of terrain maps.
3/ He writes: "On the role of AI in the Ministry of Defence’s reports," likely with reference to one of the areas in the Zaporizhzhia region where Ukrainian forces have recently been reported to be advancing.