Thread by @honzacern1

🧵 THREAD: Is this really the bottom in silver? Let’s break it down.

1/
Calls for a “silver bottom” are getting louder.

Leverage washed out. Margins raised. Asia volatile.
On paper, that looks constructive.
But paper ≠ physical.

2/
Yes, leveraged longs were flushed.
Yes, positioning has weakened.
Yes, ETF outflows suggest speculative fatigue.

That clears traders.
It does not create metal.

3/
Most “bottom calls” still rely on an old framework:
📉 price action
📊 positioning
📈 sentiment

That model worked when supply was flexible.
It doesn’t work in scarcity.

4/
Today’s silver market isn’t stressed because of demand alone.
It’s stressed because availability is tightening while paper volume stays high.

That’s a structural mismatch.

5/
Margins can be raised.
Positions can be liquidated.
Charts can reset.

But exchanges can’t margin-call missing ounces.

6/
That’s the blind spot.
Paper markets can delay repricing.
They cannot manufacture supply.

When delivery matters, price discovery breaks.

7/
This is why “capitulation” is no longer a reliable signal.

Capitulation assumes:

→ metal exists
→ sellers emerge at lower prices

What if they don’t?

8/
We’re already seeing the shift:

• liquidity without metal
• price without availability
• volatility without relief

That’s not a healthy bottom.
That’s stress containment.

9/
So could paper silver dip again?
Sure.

But physical silver is already behaving as if the bottom is behind it.

Because it trades on access, not charts.

10/
Corrections don’t kill bull markets.
But blind consensus does.

And the biggest consensus error today is thinking paper price still fully represents physical reality.

11/
Stackers don’t need to time the exact low.
They need to understand the regime change.

This is no longer a cyclical silver market.
It’s a structural one.

12/
You can short the paper.
You can pressure the screen price.

You cannot short scarcity.

And you can’t flush what isn’t for sale.

#Silver #SilverSqueeze

@threadreaderapp unroll