🧵 THREAD: Is this really the bottom in silver? Let’s break it down.
https://x.com/honzacern1/status/2019835553756127515
1/
Calls for a “silver bottom” are getting louder.
Leverage washed out. Margins raised. Asia volatile.
On paper, that looks constructive.
But paper ≠ physical.
Calls for a “silver bottom” are getting louder.
Leverage washed out. Margins raised. Asia volatile.
On paper, that looks constructive.
But paper ≠ physical.
2/
Yes, leveraged longs were flushed.
Yes, positioning has weakened.
Yes, ETF outflows suggest speculative fatigue.
That clears traders.
It does not create metal.
Yes, leveraged longs were flushed.
Yes, positioning has weakened.
Yes, ETF outflows suggest speculative fatigue.
That clears traders.
It does not create metal.
3/
Most “bottom calls” still rely on an old framework:
📉 price action
📊 positioning
📈 sentiment
That model worked when supply was flexible.
It doesn’t work in scarcity.
Most “bottom calls” still rely on an old framework:
📉 price action
📊 positioning
📈 sentiment
That model worked when supply was flexible.
It doesn’t work in scarcity.
4/
Today’s silver market isn’t stressed because of demand alone.
It’s stressed because availability is tightening while paper volume stays high.
That’s a structural mismatch.
Today’s silver market isn’t stressed because of demand alone.
It’s stressed because availability is tightening while paper volume stays high.
That’s a structural mismatch.
5/
Margins can be raised.
Positions can be liquidated.
Charts can reset.
But exchanges can’t margin-call missing ounces.
Margins can be raised.
Positions can be liquidated.
Charts can reset.
But exchanges can’t margin-call missing ounces.
6/
That’s the blind spot.
Paper markets can delay repricing.
They cannot manufacture supply.
When delivery matters, price discovery breaks.
That’s the blind spot.
Paper markets can delay repricing.
They cannot manufacture supply.
When delivery matters, price discovery breaks.
7/
This is why “capitulation” is no longer a reliable signal.
Capitulation assumes:
→ metal exists
→ sellers emerge at lower prices
What if they don’t?
This is why “capitulation” is no longer a reliable signal.
Capitulation assumes:
→ metal exists
→ sellers emerge at lower prices
What if they don’t?
8/
We’re already seeing the shift:
• liquidity without metal
• price without availability
• volatility without relief
That’s not a healthy bottom.
That’s stress containment.
We’re already seeing the shift:
• liquidity without metal
• price without availability
• volatility without relief
That’s not a healthy bottom.
That’s stress containment.
9/
So could paper silver dip again?
Sure.
But physical silver is already behaving as if the bottom is behind it.
Because it trades on access, not charts.
So could paper silver dip again?
Sure.
But physical silver is already behaving as if the bottom is behind it.
Because it trades on access, not charts.
10/
Corrections don’t kill bull markets.
But blind consensus does.
And the biggest consensus error today is thinking paper price still fully represents physical reality.
Corrections don’t kill bull markets.
But blind consensus does.
And the biggest consensus error today is thinking paper price still fully represents physical reality.
11/
Stackers don’t need to time the exact low.
They need to understand the regime change.
This is no longer a cyclical silver market.
It’s a structural one.
Stackers don’t need to time the exact low.
They need to understand the regime change.
This is no longer a cyclical silver market.
It’s a structural one.
12/
You can short the paper.
You can pressure the screen price.
You cannot short scarcity.
And you can’t flush what isn’t for sale.
#Silver #SilverSqueeze
You can short the paper.
You can pressure the screen price.
You cannot short scarcity.
And you can’t flush what isn’t for sale.
#Silver #SilverSqueeze
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