Trump thought he held all the cards, but has come up against an opponent who either can’t or doesn’t know how to fold & has no intention of doing so. The US strategy appears to hinge on a swift capitulation; Israel having pushed America to war is now happy to tuck in behind. 1/5
2/ The signs are not good, despite the incredible onslaught being unleashed on Iran. Public opinion is low, fear in the region is widespread, and the previously infallible defence systems that intercept missiles and drones are proving fallible and in short supply.
3/ America is now reaching for plans B, C & D with more equipment flowing in and whispers of ground troops and proxies to try and force a fundamental change of regime. But warnings to US citizens in the region now suggest that the situation is about to take a turn.
4/ This is now a race. Some think it’s a race to see whose missiles stocks can outlast whose - that may yet be; but regional and public support may run out even sooner than that. Iran’s strategy now will be to outlast the US, and it would appear that no target is off the table.
5/ America and Israel will (for now) continue with Plan A, in the hope that it’s just a matter of time before Iran cracks - it is only Day 4! They hold all the conventional cards on the battlefield, but that battlefield is expanding fast - and America is running out of cards…
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