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Greg Bagwell Profile picture
@gregbagwell
Mar 3 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Trump thought he held all the cards, but has come up against an opponent who either can’t or doesn’t know how to fold & has no intention of doing so. The US strategy appears to hinge on a swift capitulation; Israel having pushed America to war is now happy to tuck in behind. 1/5
2/ The signs are not good, despite the incredible onslaught being unleashed on Iran. Public opinion is low, fear in the region is widespread, and the previously infallible defence systems that intercept missiles and drones are proving fallible and in short supply.
3/ America is now reaching for plans B, C & D with more equipment flowing in and whispers of ground troops and proxies to try and force a fundamental change of regime. But warnings to US citizens in the region now suggest that the situation is about to take a turn. Image
4/ This is now a race. Some think it’s a race to see whose missiles stocks can outlast whose - that may yet be; but regional and public support may run out even sooner than that. Iran’s strategy now will be to outlast the US, and it would appear that no target is off the table.
5/ America and Israel will (for now) continue with Plan A, in the hope that it’s just a matter of time before Iran cracks - it is only Day 4! They hold all the conventional cards on the battlefield, but that battlefield is expanding fast - and America is running out of cards…

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More from @gregbagwell

Greg Bagwell Profile picture
Feb 27
Gibraltar is in the news; so here’s a quick geography lesson for those who may not understand the challenge that Brexit put on this tiny British Overseas Territory. The border crossing into Spain is critical for so many livelihoods and is key to the agreement just reached. 🧵1/8
2/ Gibraltar is really tiny, it covers approximately 6.8 square kilometers (about 2.6 square miles). It is roughly 5 km (3 miles) long and 1.2 km (0.75 mile) wide. The rock dominates the land mass and is 426m high. But let’s focus on the border…
3/ The single airport runway bisects the territory completely, and the only way in and out by road or foot is across the runway, which has a traffic light system. Here you can see the runway, the road crossing and the Spanish border control all in the same shot.
Read 8 tweets
Greg Bagwell Profile picture
Feb 23
To all those who were so quick to give Donald Trump a free pass on Iranian strikes yesterday, it turns out that things weren’t quite as rosy as they seem. What have you not yet learned about the Trump Administration? 🧵1/6wsj.com/politics/natio…
2/ Fortunately, there are still experienced and principled officers prepared to speak truth to power. There is now clearly a mis-match between the military and political aims, and the means by which to deliver them. MIDNIGHT HAMMER was impressive but limited in its aims.
3/ The shortage of munitions, both offensive and defensive, should come as little surprise after supplying Ukraine for so long. The folly of allowing that war to be so protracted is now coming home to roost - if only we had been firmer on Russia and given Ukraine more, earlier.
Read 6 tweets
Greg Bagwell Profile picture
Feb 22
An in depth, insider view of the story behind the Chagos deal. It’s paywalled so I will do my best to summarise: The “deal” is more important and valuable than many people will ever understand (or be allowed to). It gives the US a vital base and we get so much more in return.
2/ It is part of the “great game” with China, and locks Mauritius into a dependency on us that makes the islands more secure as a base. The “deal” was considered the only SAFE and GUARANTEED way to retain access and use in the longer term by both US and UK diplomats.
3/ America wanted the deal and even pushed hard for it, and there were UK fears that without one American would get its own and we would get cut out of the benefits - it drove the imperative to complete it. The highlights of the deal are: Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Greg Bagwell Profile picture
Feb 21
To all Chagos fans out there who think the Government is mad, the deal is crap and we should just carry on regardless. Here’s why the status quo won’t work (for long). In the eyes of the UN we are holding the islands illegally and have been asked nicely to give them back.🧵1/5
2/ If we ignore the UN they will no longer continue to recognise our sovereignty over the islands, as per the original agreement from 1966. This will leave us in a legal limbo no matter how determined we are to hold on. That means 2 things will happen:treaties.un.org/doc/Publicatio…
3/ 1️⃣ There I’ll be nothing to stop another country negotiating its own settlement with Mauritius, or even just occupying other islands. We can’t complain to the UN, for obvious reasons, so we slowly lose control/sole use. That 99 year sole use lease will look awfully good…
Read 6 tweets
Greg Bagwell Profile picture
Feb 21
Some facts (seeing as they are in short supply) about the new agreement with Mauritius over our military use of Diego Garcia. They are actually contained in the Annex so not many will have read them. But here is the entire 37 page document: 🧵1/6assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/682f25af…
2/ The first thing to note is that it is only 37 well spaced out pages - has it really taken America this long to work out what’s in it and still change their mind twice about it? Let’s look at the relevant pages about the conduct of military operations (pages 13 & top of 14): Image
Image
3/ Here are the key paragraphs zoomed in. Para (b) (1) allows: “unrestricted ability to control the conduct and deployment of armed operations and
lethal capabilities” That is a Carte Blanche to do what we wish and you couldn’t ask for any more. Image
Read 6 tweets
Greg Bagwell Profile picture
Feb 20
In the current climate, I would go as far as to call this treasonous…
Let me expand: two former PMs, no matter how flawed their own tenures, carry the gravitas and weight of the Office long after they leave it - that confers on them a unique responsibility to act carefully - especially on matters of National importance or significance. 🧵1/7
2/ To use their influence directly against a democratically elected government is bad enough, but to do so with a foreign power that has been outwardly hostile to Europe and has been suspiciously close to Russian desired outcomes in Ukraine is even more distasteful.
Read 8 tweets

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