⭕️🧵THE US & ISRAEL’S GROUND PLAN FOR IRAN: With the WSJ report that President Trump is open to arming militias in Iran to start acting as “ground forces” and begin an armed rebellion against the remnants of the regime, here’s what I think the plan is.
📌 The conditions on the ground that Israel and the promised to create for the Iranian people to rise up will start in Kurdistan. Reports earlier this week said that Trump had spoken to Iraqi Kurdish leaders about “sensitive” matters that could not be disclosed. With this new report about specifically arming Iranian Kurdish groups, I believe we will first see action there.
📌 This could present in a number of ways. Armed Iranian Kurdish groups (some of which already exist) could begin a localized uprising in Western Iran. This might be in conjunction with and supported by the Peshmerga in Iraqi Kurdistan, who could do anything from sending supplies/weapons to actually sending ground forces over the border to fight. Israeli strikes have specifically been focusing on IRGC military infrastructure in Western Iran/Kurdistan to “clear the path” for an uprising.
📌 The US and Israel could plausibly support this uprising in a number of ways. The easiest option would be logistical support and weapons, but declaring a no-fly zone and providing aerial strikes would also be highly effective. We might see Israeli and/or American SF units embed with Kurdish groups, whether that be US Army Special Forces (Green Berets), who specialize in training and leading unconventional forces in hostile countries, or other units.
📌 Another dimension to this plan might be a deeper strategic move designed to punish the Iranian puppet regime in Iraq. If Iraqi Kurdish forces do get actively involved in the fighting in Iran, this could be an opportunity for them to further consolidate territorial control of a more unified Kurdistan across Iran and Iraq (minus the Syrian and Turkish regions).
📌 President Trump MAY have promised the Iraqi Kurdish leaders whom he spoke to this week that the US would support a breakaway from Iraq in exchange for assistance from Iran. Again, this is a massive “IF” given that historically the Kurds have been mostly abandoned by the West.
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