⭕️🧵THE US & ISRAEL’S GROUND PLAN FOR IRAN: With the WSJ report that President Trump is open to arming militias in Iran to start acting as “ground forces” and begin an armed rebellion against the remnants of the regime, here’s what I think the plan is.
📌 The conditions on the ground that Israel and the promised to create for the Iranian people to rise up will start in Kurdistan. Reports earlier this week said that Trump had spoken to Iraqi Kurdish leaders about “sensitive” matters that could not be disclosed. With this new report about specifically arming Iranian Kurdish groups, I believe we will first see action there.
📌 This could present in a number of ways. Armed Iranian Kurdish groups (some of which already exist) could begin a localized uprising in Western Iran. This might be in conjunction with and supported by the Peshmerga in Iraqi Kurdistan, who could do anything from sending supplies/weapons to actually sending ground forces over the border to fight. Israeli strikes have specifically been focusing on IRGC military infrastructure in Western Iran/Kurdistan to “clear the path” for an uprising.
📌 The US and Israel could plausibly support this uprising in a number of ways. The easiest option would be logistical support and weapons, but declaring a no-fly zone and providing aerial strikes would also be highly effective. We might see Israeli and/or American SF units embed with Kurdish groups, whether that be US Army Special Forces (Green Berets), who specialize in training and leading unconventional forces in hostile countries, or other units.
📌 Another dimension to this plan might be a deeper strategic move designed to punish the Iranian puppet regime in Iraq. If Iraqi Kurdish forces do get actively involved in the fighting in Iran, this could be an opportunity for them to further consolidate territorial control of a more unified Kurdistan across Iran and Iraq (minus the Syrian and Turkish regions).
📌 President Trump MAY have promised the Iraqi Kurdish leaders whom he spoke to this week that the US would support a breakaway from Iraq in exchange for assistance from Iran. Again, this is a massive “IF” given that historically the Kurds have been mostly abandoned by the West.
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⭕️🧵Senior IDF Air Force official: During 18 days of fighting, air activity was carried out equivalent in scope to a "whole year of operational activity." A Thread.
📌 Air Force pilots conducted more than 8,500 strikes across Iran in less than three weeks, using over 12,000 bombs. About 3,600 munitions were dropped in Tehran alone.
📌 In the "Rising Lion" operation in June, the IDF focused its efforts on three areas in Iran, while in the "Roar of the Lion" operation, the IDF operated throughout Iran. One-fifth of the air strikes change their targets while the aircraft are in the air.
⭕ 🧵How the IDF Air Force destroyed Quds Force transport aircraft fleet in Iran. New details reveal a major strike targeting the logistical air network used by Iran’s Quds Force to supply proxies across the Middle East.
📌 On Saturday, Israeli Air Force fighter jets — guided by precise intelligence from the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate (AMAN) — struck Tehran airport, targeting the Quds Force’s air transport infrastructure.
📌 More than 16 transport aircraft used by the Quds Force were destroyed, along with additional components of the logistical system located around the airport.
⭕️🧵From Amit Segal: New details from the operation Epic Fury. The first "asset" used in the operation was not a military convoy or an armored car, but an unwashed Hyundai i10, still bearing scuffs from the parking lot. That detail captures the spirit of the deception operation that preceded the strike.
📌 In the hours before the attack, Israel executed a carefully planned deception. All senior IDF General Staff officers returned home for Shabbat dinner. Why? Because in Israel, neighbors watch the parking lot. If a general’s car is parked outside, it signals: Nothing is happening tonight.
📌 But one general quietly slipped away. Leaving the meal behind, he climbed into his assistant’s second-hand car and drove to the command bunker. The war had already begun.
⭕️🧵From Israel Hayom: "The Israeli strike that surprised the US: 'We knew they were good - we didn't know how good. ' Senior U.S. officials are reportedly expressing unusually high praise for Israel’s military performance in the current war, according to informed sources. The appreciation comes directly from the President and senior members of the administration.
📌 Sources say the praise stems from two main factors:
• The extremely high level of performance by Israel’s Air Force and intelligence services
• The fact that Israel delivered on the expectations set by PM Netanyahu in talks with Trump before the war.
📌 Israel’s standing in Washington reportedly surged after the opening strike, described as a major operational success. According to the report, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several close advisers were eliminated in the strike.
⭕️🧵MUST READ: Inside Israel’s Long Game on Iran’s Supreme Leader. The Financial Times takes you inside years of Israeli intelligence planning focused on Iran’s top leadership—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
📌According to the report, Israeli intelligence reportedly built detailed “patterns of life” on senior Iranian officials—tracking routines, security layers, movement corridors, and communications over extended periods.
📌A key element: cyber penetration. The article describes alleged access to municipal cameras, traffic systems, and digital infrastructure to map secure routes and identify vulnerabilities in Tehran’s security architecture.
⭕️🧵In a few hours, the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran will begin. Here is a guide explaining how a “Turkish Bazaar”—or, more accurately, a Middle Eastern bazaar—works and how to avoid its pitfalls. By the way, 'bāzār' is a Persian word, meaning "place of prices."
📌 The item you are selling: Most of the time, the item you want to sell is not even worth a fraction of the price you’re asking for, but you make it seem like it’s the best thing since sliced bread. You also play the game of claiming “these items are not for sale” to increase their perceived value.
📌 Now comes the pre-negotiations: First, you play hard to get, forcing the other side to make compromises before talks even begin.