Thread by @Gokul_Sahni

“Since the US and Israel launched the war a week ago, the United Arab Emirates, which for years has enjoyed spectacular success as a global entrepot, has been the target of about two-thirds of all ordnance fired by Iran across the Gulf.” 1/9

“But now the allure of Dubai is under threat, raising the question of whether its decades of extraordinary growth are in jeopardy.

“This is an unprecedented moment in our history,” says a senior Dubai government official.” 2/9

“Dubai’s travails are widely shared. Across the Gulf states, the war ignited by the US and Israel’s assault on Iran brought to life their worst fears: a conflict they cannot control that threatens to undermine their grand ambitions.” 3/9

“many residents see the Gulf state’s response as a successful outcome to a long-dreaded scenario. Nevertheless the direct strikes on civilian infrastructure, such as the Palm’s Fairmont hotel, have shattered any idea that Dubai is immune from the volatility of the Middle East.”

“Nervousness in the expatriate community has been amplified by fear-mongering in hyperactive WhatsApp messaging groups. The UAE authorities are expected to crack down on those sharing videos regarded as compromising national security, according to one adviser.” 5/9

“Many recently arrived, ultra-wealthy residents are monitoring the situation, says one who had secured a.. flight... “We are lucky to be able to sit this outside for the next few months before assessing whether to come back,” he says. “There are other options, such as 🇵🇹 or 🇮🇹.”

“Most residents reckon real estate prices could fall by a quarter to a third — a development that would be welcomed by many struggling to cover overinflated rents.” 7/9

“Officials and executives both seek to maintain their optimism about the UAE’s long-term economic future.

“We are the link between east and west, established markets and the global south,” says the Dubai official. “Anyone serious about growth knows that this is the place to be.”

“But many worry that, after the Gulf states have been dragged into a war they did not want, 🇺🇸 may fail to “finish the job” or start negotiations with 🇮🇷 that leave them exposed.. could leave a wounded 🇮🇷 regime determined to rebuild arsenals & reassert itself across the Gulf.”