Gokul Sahni Profile picture
Mar 7 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
“Since the US and Israel launched the war a week ago, the United Arab Emirates, which for years has enjoyed spectacular success as a global entrepot, has been the target of about two-thirds of all ordnance fired by Iran across the Gulf.” 1/9
“But now the allure of Dubai is under threat, raising the question of whether its decades of extraordinary growth are in jeopardy.

“This is an unprecedented moment in our history,” says a senior Dubai government official.” 2/9
“Dubai’s travails are widely shared. Across the Gulf states, the war ignited by the US and Israel’s assault on Iran brought to life their worst fears: a conflict they cannot control that threatens to undermine their grand ambitions.” 3/9
“many residents see the Gulf state’s response as a successful outcome to a long-dreaded scenario. Nevertheless the direct strikes on civilian infrastructure, such as the Palm’s Fairmont hotel, have shattered any idea that Dubai is immune from the volatility of the Middle East.”
“Nervousness in the expatriate community has been amplified by fear-mongering in hyperactive WhatsApp messaging groups. The UAE authorities are expected to crack down on those sharing videos regarded as compromising national security, according to one adviser.” 5/9
“Many recently arrived, ultra-wealthy residents are monitoring the situation, says one who had secured a.. flight... “We are lucky to be able to sit this outside for the next few months before assessing whether to come back,” he says. “There are other options, such as 🇵🇹 or 🇮🇹.”
“Most residents reckon real estate prices could fall by a quarter to a third — a development that would be welcomed by many struggling to cover overinflated rents.” 7/9
“Officials and executives both seek to maintain their optimism about the UAE’s long-term economic future.

“We are the link between east and west, established markets and the global south,” says the Dubai official. “Anyone serious about growth knows that this is the place to be.”
“But many worry that, after the Gulf states have been dragged into a war they did not want, 🇺🇸 may fail to “finish the job” or start negotiations with 🇮🇷 that leave them exposed.. could leave a wounded 🇮🇷 regime determined to rebuild arsenals & reassert itself across the Gulf.”

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More from @Gokul_Sahni

Feb 4
“In early September, shortly after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a chummy meeting with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in China, he dispatched his national security adviser to Washington to help smooth over fraying ties.” 1/10
“Ajit Doval came with a message for Secretary of State Marco Rubio: India wanted to put the acrimony between the two nations behind it and get back to negotiating a trade deal, according to officials in New Delhi familiar with the meeting..” 2/10
“Doval told Rubio that India wouldn’t be bullied by US President Donald Trump and his top aides, the people said, and would be willing to wait out his term, having faced other hostile US administrations in the past.” 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Dec 29, 2025
Will this attitude prevail in the US even after Trump?

“The U.S. helped create the institution from the wreckage of World War II, but Washington now regards it as an over-regulated bureaucracy incapable of responding swiftly to events and fulfilling its role as a U.S. ally.” 1/6
“Trump’s antipathy to the bloc represents the most fundamental reassessment of U.S. trans-Atlantic policy since the Cold War and is upending America’s most important alliance.” 2/6
“By targeting the EU—also a longtime focus of Russian vitriol—Trump is dispensing with decades of U.S. policy and putting the West in uncharted territory.” 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Dec 29, 2025
Interesting reflections on the modern Middle East:

“In Abu Dhabi, nobody talks about the robotaxis. In Riyadh, nobody marvels at the construction pace anymore. These things have become the background radiation of the Gulf. The new normal that’s so normal it’s boring.” 1/14
“Dubai is different but fits. Louder, messier in the best way. Languages colliding mid-sentence—Hindi, Arabic, Russian, Tagalog, English, sometimes all within a few steps... It’s cosmopolitanism without Western reference points.” 2/14
“The center of gravity has shifted east. Not as slogan, but in who feels confident, who’s in motion. After spending time there, you see the world as it really was before European hegemony—a place where Asia was always the center, and the West was the periphery.” 3/14
Read 14 tweets
Dec 25, 2025
“The message that shines through from Martin Thorley’s All That Glistens is how ill-equipped Western democracies are to interact with a highly disciplined, strategically minded and secretive one-party state.” 1/11
“Again and again, parties that appear independent and self-interested on the surface turn out to have connections to the United Front, a Communist Party-controlled network of groups and individuals that are used to advance its aims.” 2/11
“Commercial interests grease the wheels, sometimes helping to frame the terms of debate; British politicians are happy to play along, particularly in the unelected House of Lords.” 3/11
Read 11 tweets
Dec 24, 2025
“On paper this is the coming of age moment for the “middle powers”, in particular the powerhouses of the global south who have long been willing on America’s fall from its preachy pedestal. There are indeed new opportunities, particularly for the unscrupulous.” 1/9
“As one former south-east Asian official reflected to me recently: “While we wanted this transition to happen, we thought it would be gradually and naturally. We didn’t appreciate it would be America which would set this in motion.” 2/9
“American authority and appetite for global leadership were waning before Trump won even his first term in office; it dates back to the financial crisis of 2008, and before that to the calamitous invasion of Iraq. But Trump’s second inauguration has supercharged this process.”
Read 9 tweets
Dec 21, 2025
“my analysis of polling… in the US, UK, France and Germany zero-sum beliefs on the left (eg people only get rich by making others poor) and the right (eg immigrants succeed at the expense of the native-born) are related expressions of the same underlying worldview.” 1/8
“Namely that there is only so much to go around and we must therefore use restrictions, exactions and preferential treatment to redress the balance between winners and losers.” 2/8
“When economic growth is weak, upward mobility becomes limited, meaning gains really are more likely to come at another’s expense. This describes the past two decades... Per capita economic growth across the west has averaged less than 1% a year since the financial crisis...” 3/8
Read 8 tweets

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