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Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ

Mar 16, 17 tweets

1/ Iran intends to leverage its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz to force the US and Gulf Arab states to accept an agreement in which Iran has set "appropriate political and security conditions", in which its security is guaranteed and US bases in the region are closed. ⬇️

2/ Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran, has told the London-based Arabic newspaper The New Arab (Al-Araby al-Jadeed) that Iran will keep fighting and "will not return to the conditions that prevailed before the war."

3/ He says that a ceasefire agreement will not be acceptable without guarantees "that war will not resume, not if it gives the enemy an opportunity to fix its problems, such as the destruction of its radars or the shortage of interceptor missiles,…

4/ …only to return and attack us again. We will continue fighting until the enemy genuinely regrets its aggression, and until the appropriate political and security conditions are in place in the world and the region, and the threat and war."

5/ Ghalibaf says that Iran had prepared for a long attritional war, "because we knew we would come under attack. Based on our experience in the previous war, we knew how they would try to impair our operational capabilities. Therefore, we took the necessary precautions."

6/ He claims that "no one believes the American claims about destroying Iran's offensive capabilities anymore."

7/ "We have a sufficient stockpile of missiles and drones, and since this technology is indigenous, we are able to produce them at higher rates and at a much lower cost than the enemy's interceptor missiles."

8/ Ghalibaf contrasts the newly selected Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to the deposed Bashar al-Assad and the abducted Nicolás Maduro: "Iran is not like Syria, where the leader abandons the country, nor like Venezuela, which succumbs to force."

9/ "All the people, from the Supreme Leader of the Revolution to officials and ordinary citizens, stand united in defence of Iran's dignity, independence, and territorial integrity. A nation that relies on divine providence cannot be defeated."

10/ He blames the United States for forcing Iran to attack its Gulf neighbours, saying that the US "established military bases there under the pretext of providing security, but they exploited these bases to attack Iran, forcing us to respond."

11/ "The destabilisation began with the United States on the soil of these countries, and it is only natural that we are in an existential war and compelled to defend ourselves."

He demands that the Gulf states should expel the US from their territories:

12/ "We believe that the region's security must be ensured by its own countries without external interference. Therefore, we believe this war will significantly alter regional relations, and we will not return to the conditions that prevailed before it.

13/ "We are prepared to conclude sustainable security agreements with the countries of the region that can provide mutual guarantees and create stable and lasting security for investors.

14/ "My message is the same as our new leader's: you granted America military bases to ensure your security, but they have become a threat to your security because they betrayed you...

15/ This war has proven once again that these [Gulf Arab] countries are of no real importance to the United States. If it has come to this, make a decisive move and close the American bases in your countries."

16/ From his comments, it seems apparent that Iran aims to keep blocking the Strait of Hormuz and bombarding Gulf Arab oil infrastructure until the Gulf states conclude that they need to push the US out in order to secure peace and end the damage to their economies. /end

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