1/ Iran intends to leverage its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz to force the US and Gulf Arab states to accept an agreement in which Iran has set "appropriate political and security conditions", in which its security is guaranteed and US bases in the region are closed. ⬇️
2/ Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran, has told the London-based Arabic newspaper The New Arab (Al-Araby al-Jadeed) that Iran will keep fighting and "will not return to the conditions that prevailed before the war."
3/ He says that a ceasefire agreement will not be acceptable without guarantees "that war will not resume, not if it gives the enemy an opportunity to fix its problems, such as the destruction of its radars or the shortage of interceptor missiles,…
4/ …only to return and attack us again. We will continue fighting until the enemy genuinely regrets its aggression, and until the appropriate political and security conditions are in place in the world and the region, and the threat and war."
5/ Ghalibaf says that Iran had prepared for a long attritional war, "because we knew we would come under attack. Based on our experience in the previous war, we knew how they would try to impair our operational capabilities. Therefore, we took the necessary precautions."
6/ He claims that "no one believes the American claims about destroying Iran's offensive capabilities anymore."
7/ "We have a sufficient stockpile of missiles and drones, and since this technology is indigenous, we are able to produce them at higher rates and at a much lower cost than the enemy's interceptor missiles."
8/ Ghalibaf contrasts the newly selected Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to the deposed Bashar al-Assad and the abducted Nicolás Maduro: "Iran is not like Syria, where the leader abandons the country, nor like Venezuela, which succumbs to force."
9/ "All the people, from the Supreme Leader of the Revolution to officials and ordinary citizens, stand united in defence of Iran's dignity, independence, and territorial integrity. A nation that relies on divine providence cannot be defeated."
10/ He blames the United States for forcing Iran to attack its Gulf neighbours, saying that the US "established military bases there under the pretext of providing security, but they exploited these bases to attack Iran, forcing us to respond."
11/ "The destabilisation began with the United States on the soil of these countries, and it is only natural that we are in an existential war and compelled to defend ourselves."
He demands that the Gulf states should expel the US from their territories:
12/ "We believe that the region's security must be ensured by its own countries without external interference. Therefore, we believe this war will significantly alter regional relations, and we will not return to the conditions that prevailed before it.
13/ "We are prepared to conclude sustainable security agreements with the countries of the region that can provide mutual guarantees and create stable and lasting security for investors.
14/ "My message is the same as our new leader's: you granted America military bases to ensure your security, but they have become a threat to your security because they betrayed you...
15/ This war has proven once again that these [Gulf Arab] countries are of no real importance to the United States. If it has come to this, make a decisive move and close the American bases in your countries."
16/ From his comments, it seems apparent that Iran aims to keep blocking the Strait of Hormuz and bombarding Gulf Arab oil infrastructure until the Gulf states conclude that they need to push the US out in order to secure peace and end the damage to their economies. /end
1/ Russian warbloggers have identified a new enemy in the aftermath of the Ukrainian drone attacks in Moscow: migrants, who have appeared in many videos of the strikes. They are calling for severe punishments of those who have violated the government's censorship regulations. ⬇️
2/ One of the most iconic videos from the attack, showing a fuel storage tank's lid being thrown high in the air by an explosion, was filmed by a Chinese migrant worker and posted on his TikTok channel.
"Migrants from fraternal China published a video of a surface-to-air missile (or a MANPADS missile) hitting a storage tank at a Moscow oil refinery. Now the footage is spreading across Chinese and global social media."
1/ Why do Russian anti-drone units fail shoot down drones? Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev says they have numerous deficiencies, including bad communications, coordination, training, and drunkenness, that are undermining Russia's drone defences. ⬇️
"You can surround yourself with all sorts of equipment – radars, machine guns, state-of-the-art interceptors – and still miss an incoming aircraft simply because of a problem with the ‘padding between the steering wheel and the seat’.
3/ "– When mobile fire teams are afraid to shoot down drones (what if there's another one after them? What if it crashes somewhere wrong and gets called in?).
– When observers on duty are asleep or even drinking at their posts.
1/ Russian warbloggers are celebrating one piece of collateral damage from yesterday's drone attack in Moscow – a shot-down Ukrainian drone which set the huge Sadovod market on fire. Their comments highlight ingrained Russian anti-immigrant sentiment. ⬇️
2/ Ukraine's attack targeted the oil refinery in Kapotnya, south-east of central Moscow. The surrounding area is heavily polluted and is one of the cheapest areas in Moscow in terms of housing costs. This has encouraged large numbers of immigrants to settle there.
3/ The nearby Sadovod market, established in 1997, is the largest wholesale and retail centre in the whole of Russia, covering an area of more than 40 hectares. It contains around 8,000 shops and attracts over 36 million customers annually, many coming from abroad.
1/ In the aftermath of yesterday's Ukrainian attack on Moscow, many Russian warbloggers are calling for Russia to "start fighting for real" and are blaming the Kremlin for not prosecuting the war with sufficient ferocity. One warblogger explains why this is a fantasy. ⬇️
2/ Roman Yuneman writes:
"In the wake of today's attack on Moscow, I'm again seeing many comments along the lines of "well, are we going to endure this again?", "when are we going to start a real war?", "why are we showing them any mercy?" and so on."
3/ "It's a rather convenient myth that Russia could immediately launch a devastating response, but we're simply not doing so out of nobility or some other notion held by our leadership. This is a half-truth.
1/ How did Ukraine strike Moscow yesterday? A Russian commentary provides a useful overview of the munitions that were used in the attack on the Moscow oil refinery. ⬇️
To strike the Russian capital, the enemy deployed a wide range of long-range fixed-wing UAVs. Ukrainian public groups report that these included, in particular, the AN-196 "Lyutyi," FP-1, "Bars," and "Bobr" drones.
3/ "AN-196 "Lyutyi". A long-range fixed-wing kamikaze drone, developed by the Antonov Design Bureau and manufactured by Ukroboronprom. It is constructed using an integrated twin-boom design with a pusher propeller and a fiberglass body.
1/ Crimea is falling into a critical situation, says Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin, while in the war as a whole, Russia is "very close to the line beyond which lies military defeat". He lambasts the Kremlin for "lethargy" and living in fantasy on the "Planet of the Pink Ponies". ⬇️
2/ Writing to a friend from his jail, Girkin comments on Ukraine's drone offensive:
"– The situation in Crimea. It is grave now, but promises to become critical in just a few weeks if the enemy continues its strategic air offensive against it at an increasing pace.
3/ "Naturally, this is not just a coincidence - the enemy has far-reaching strategic plans in this direction and is preparing to implement them, increasingly disrupting Crimea's communications with Northern Taurida [i.e. the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions]…