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Mar 16 17 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ Iran intends to leverage its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz to force the US and Gulf Arab states to accept an agreement in which Iran has set "appropriate political and security conditions", in which its security is guaranteed and US bases in the region are closed. ⬇️ Image
2/ Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran, has told the London-based Arabic newspaper The New Arab (Al-Araby al-Jadeed) that Iran will keep fighting and "will not return to the conditions that prevailed before the war." Image
3/ He says that a ceasefire agreement will not be acceptable without guarantees "that war will not resume, not if it gives the enemy an opportunity to fix its problems, such as the destruction of its radars or the shortage of interceptor missiles,…
4/ …only to return and attack us again. We will continue fighting until the enemy genuinely regrets its aggression, and until the appropriate political and security conditions are in place in the world and the region, and the threat and war."
5/ Ghalibaf says that Iran had prepared for a long attritional war, "because we knew we would come under attack. Based on our experience in the previous war, we knew how they would try to impair our operational capabilities. Therefore, we took the necessary precautions."
6/ He claims that "no one believes the American claims about destroying Iran's offensive capabilities anymore."
7/ "We have a sufficient stockpile of missiles and drones, and since this technology is indigenous, we are able to produce them at higher rates and at a much lower cost than the enemy's interceptor missiles."
8/ Ghalibaf contrasts the newly selected Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to the deposed Bashar al-Assad and the abducted Nicolás Maduro: "Iran is not like Syria, where the leader abandons the country, nor like Venezuela, which succumbs to force."
9/ "All the people, from the Supreme Leader of the Revolution to officials and ordinary citizens, stand united in defence of Iran's dignity, independence, and territorial integrity. A nation that relies on divine providence cannot be defeated."
10/ He blames the United States for forcing Iran to attack its Gulf neighbours, saying that the US "established military bases there under the pretext of providing security, but they exploited these bases to attack Iran, forcing us to respond."
11/ "The destabilisation began with the United States on the soil of these countries, and it is only natural that we are in an existential war and compelled to defend ourselves."

He demands that the Gulf states should expel the US from their territories:
12/ "We believe that the region's security must be ensured by its own countries without external interference. Therefore, we believe this war will significantly alter regional relations, and we will not return to the conditions that prevailed before it.
13/ "We are prepared to conclude sustainable security agreements with the countries of the region that can provide mutual guarantees and create stable and lasting security for investors.
14/ "My message is the same as our new leader's: you granted America military bases to ensure your security, but they have become a threat to your security because they betrayed you...
15/ This war has proven once again that these [Gulf Arab] countries are of no real importance to the United States. If it has come to this, make a decisive move and close the American bases in your countries."
16/ From his comments, it seems apparent that Iran aims to keep blocking the Strait of Hormuz and bombarding Gulf Arab oil infrastructure until the Gulf states conclude that they need to push the US out in order to secure peace and end the damage to their economies. /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jul 31
1/ Could Dmitri Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, be lying about the current level of recruitment to the Russian army? This appalling and unprecedented scenario is considered by Russian warbloggers, who smell a rat in his claims of success. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Artjockey' has spotted something odd about recent claims made by Medvedev, and suspects statistical cheating:

"The day before yesterday, Medvedev announced that the contract recruitment plan was being met, and that talk of mobilisation was an enemy plot."
3/ "He backed up his statement with statistics:

▪️ During the first 6 months [of 2026], “about” 200 thousand people and 16 thousand volunteers signed contracts;

▪️ Of these, 40,000 joined the unmanned systems forces.
Read 18 tweets
Jul 31
1/ A massive new mobilisation in Russia this fall is increasingly being forecast by Russian warbloggers. They are, however, cautious about this prospect given the strains on the Russian economy and the chaos that accompanied the 2022 mobilisation. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'DsHRG Rusich' comments:
3/ "We've already been mobilising (partially) since 2020. Another mass recruitment will most likely indeed happen, and it will probably happen after the Duma elections in September. Various crazy bans, internet restrictions, etc. are being prepared for this, among other things.
Read 20 tweets
Jul 31
1/ With rumours of a new mobilisation in the fall sweeping the Russian blogosphere, one warblogger wonders: what's the point? He points out that the land that Russia has seized is essentially worthless, having been destroyed, depopulated, and strewn with mines. ⬇️ Image
2/ Roman Alekhin probably isn't doing himself any favours (he's already been declared a 'foreign agent' by the Kremlin), but he is at least willing to go where other warbloggers haven't been willing, and question the purpose of continuing the war:
3/ "[Analyses] lead to one conclusion that could prevent a crisis or mitigate its impact: ending the conflict.

At the same time, depending on the conditions, ending the conflict could lead to different consequences.
Read 19 tweets
Jul 31
1/ Russian online marketplaces are reportedly trying to discourage their sellers offering non-lethal military equipment, for which Ukraine has targeted them. According to one such seller, fees of as much as 60% are now being charged on such equipment by the marketplaces. ⬇️ Image
2/ The 'Forge of Mordor' channel, which makes and sells equipment to soldiers, comments:
3/ "Everyone feels sorry for Wildberries, but in reality, they're doing the following:

- Banning the sale of weapon modifications (or rather, imposing an additional fine)

- Multiple increases in commissions for everything war-related.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 30
1/ Another Wildberries warehouse is on fire, this time in Sarapul, after a Ukrainian drone strike. As the ongoing massacre of Wildberries facilities continues, Russian warbloggers are becoming steadily more irate about air defence failures. ⬇️
2/ 'Combat Reserve' is furious, pointing to the lack of willingness among commanders and officials to take responsibility (a long-running problem; see the thread below).
3/ "WB Sarapul.

WB Penza is also burning.

But this isn't [just] the enemy's doing, but the criminal negligence of local authorities.

The regions' helplessness is mired in bureaucracy and an inability to take responsibility.
Read 15 tweets
Jul 30
1/ Russia's mobile fire teams (MOGs), which are the backbone of its defences against Ukrainian drones, are poorly paid and lack the benefits given to soldiers. Despite the dangers – MOGs have been attacked – their members do not get the benefits or pay that soldiers receive. ⬇️ Image
2/ The authorities in Krasnodar Krai have announced that they will form mobile fire teams from employees of critical infrastructure and enterprises in Kuban to protect these facilities.
3/ Workers will be able to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence, and a monthly salary of 50,000 rubles [$627] will be provided. Fire team members are guaranteed not to be deployed to Ukraine (though how iron-clad this guarantee really is remains to be seen).
Read 9 tweets

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