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Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ

Mar 17, 18 tweets

1/ Russia's block on Telegram, crackdown on VPNs and mobile Internet shutdowns are threatening to destroy the 'People's Military-Industrial Complex' – a vast ecosystem of volunteer and start-up efforts that manufactures and supplies the army with drones and other equipment. ⬇️

2/ The 'People's VPK', as it's known in Russia, has grown from garage workshops to well-organised industrial chains linking enthuasists, serving and ex-military personnel, and start-up companies to produce a wide variety of essential equipment for the Russian army.

3/ They supply many things that the Russian MOD and the slow and expensive state-directed military industrial complex does not: drones, signal repeaters, masts, armour plates, charging stations, sighting devices, electronic warfare equipment, and so on.

4/ It's not an exaggeration to say that the Russian army would be crippled without their support. Yet, say Russian warbloggers involved in the People's VPK, this is exactly what is about to happen due to the sudden Internet crackdown.

5/ 'UAV Developer' points out that because of sanctions, Russian equipment producers have to rely on Chinese suppliers for components. But without VPN access, they can't communicate with them:

6/ "Developers like me need access to documentation and datasheets, as well as Chinese websites (none of which can be accessed from Russia without a VPN, which we’re currently cracking down on).

7/ "Purchasing and paying for components for the front lines also requires a VPN.

Working with [sales] agents “over there” also requires a VPN.

8/ "It feels like our so-called “lead-headed” leaders [a pun on Alexander Dugin's name], if they’ve seen nothing on the internet besides porn and memes, assume the rest of the country’s citizens are just as clueless.

9/ "And then, based on their kindergarten-level view of the world, laws are passed and operational plans are drawn up."

'Russian Engineer' warns that making it impossible for people to operate will drive them out of Russia altogether, accelerating a brain drain to China:

10/ "I know that about 80% of the engineering staff involved in supporting the Russian army, especially those developing modern technologies, are already seriously considering offers from the Chinese, who are willing to pay fivefold or tenfold,…

11/ …and are actively head-hunting Russians. Currently, these people are staying put for ideological reasons, because leaving their homeland in difficult times is unacceptable to them.

12/ "But being independent, capable of providing for themselves, and perplexed by what's happening, they are starting to seriously consider offers to relocate.

13/ And this would be a disaster for attempts to achieve technical leadership, provoked by inept actions along the lines of 'just be patient, after the rape, you'll get used to it, we'll still have apples to grow and flowers to water.'

14/ "There aren't millions of such specialists, but tens of thousands, across the entire country, who are responsible for the entire security of our society. So, yes, everyone can be forced. But under the pressure, nothing will survive.

15/ "And in a few years, as the technological gap widens, no nuclear shield will save us... In other words, digitalisation, development, and national security, and with it, Russia's very survival, depend on people who refuse to accept governance through disruption.

16/ "And until this is understood, and until those who perpetrate the prohibitionist frenzy acknowledge it, Russia's future will be at risk.

P.S. Yes, some might say, "Let them go, we'll find others." Of course we will.

17/ "But among them, there will be an even higher level of crooks and swindlers and an even lower level of competent specialists. And so, with each iteration, the technological lag will grow, which has enough reasons as it is." /end

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