Thread by @WarintheFuture

The latest update on drone and missile attacks on the UAE has just been released. With this as context, I thought I would share some initial insights arising from this Iranian retaliatory campaign and the overall war against #Iran. 1/9 🧵

2/ First, the battlespace is not transparent. It is highly visible but high visibility is not the same as high wisdom about what is seen. And we must not fall into the trap of assuming that we actually are seeing everything we need to see rather than what the enemy wants us to see. Finally, no tech can see into the hearts and minds of soldiers and combat leaders, especially when they are functioning under conditions of existential threat.

3/ Second, Understanding the enemy, and how resilient it is, matters. The Iranians have been preparing for this fight for decades, will have many caches of weapons and have strategised how this might play out. And assuming that a few bombs from the sky topple a regime (especially when it has never been achieved before) badly under estimated the Iranians.

4/ Third, and linked to the first two points, surprise is still a feature of modern war. The US achieved surprise against Iran in the first attacks. Iran appears to have achieved surprise against western politicians with its regime resilience and its willingness to engage in a widespread retaliatory campaign focused on economic outcomes. And living in Australia where successive governments have refused to meet the minimum IEA energy stockpiles requirements, it is clear that many politicians have been surprised about their national lack of resilience.

5/ Fifth, learning from other peoples’ wars is vital. Imagine if western militaries had decided that Ukraine’s cheap drone interceptors were a good idea a year ago. China has been studying and learning from the western way of war since the war in the Falklands.

6/ Next, the authoritarian learning & adaptation bloc is alive, functioning and influencing this war. Russia is providing intelligence and other support (especially in disinformation) and is benefiting from American oil sanctions relief. China, while uncomfortable about oil flow restrictions, has been stockpiling for some time and can weather this situation for a while. It also stands to gain if oil purchases start moving away from US dollar transactions.

7/ Seventh, while abusing close allies - especially in public - might be emotionally satisfying for some, it accretes ill will and distrust. And, those chickens always come home to roost. Alliances matter and they require constant nurturing and trust building. Tough words between allies is common and sometimes necessary. Abuse and belittling - not so smart.

8/ Finally, this war is a great example of why good strategic thinking, good assumptions and strategy execution matters. While no one doubts that the Iranian regime is a cruel and awful institution, the question is “why now”? Russia has been given a breather in its brutal war against Ukraine, and China is loving American focus on the Middle East rather than the Pacific. Strategy is ultimately about priorities and sequencing. If the war against Iran not only improves the position of China and Russia now, but also compromises American capacity (especially with munitions & warship readiness) in the near future, is that a good strategy?

9/ The real tragedy is that not a single one of these insights are new. These are all known insights from hundreds, and sometimes thousands, of years of war. This war has many twists and turns to come - predicting an outcome at this point is impossible. End.