Keane: If kinetic operations resume, everyone influencing them is target one.
The [Hormuz] blockade is holding, the US now has twice the power in the region it had when the war started, and Israel is replenished. That is why the blow available now is absolutely significant. 1/
Keane: Tehran thinks it made progress by forcing the US into a pause and ceasefire after closing Hormuz.
That only encourages it to drag the talks out. In its mind, the longer this runs, the more pressure builds on Trump to make concessions he never wanted to make. 2/
Keane: The more flexible political figures have been sidelined. The foreign minister has little power.
These talks reflect the views of the head of the IRGC, and these are bona fide hardliners. The men with the guns are the dominant power in Tehran now. 3/
Keane: They will absorb suffering far beyond anything we think is tolerable because they do not care about the suffering of their people.
Their goal is simple: stay in power and preserve the regime. That is where they are coming from in these talks. 4X
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