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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Apr 26 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Keane: If kinetic operations resume, everyone influencing them is target one.

The [Hormuz] blockade is holding, the US now has twice the power in the region it had when the war started, and Israel is replenished. That is why the blow available now is absolutely significant. 1/
Keane: Tehran thinks it made progress by forcing the US into a pause and ceasefire after closing Hormuz.

That only encourages it to drag the talks out. In its mind, the longer this runs, the more pressure builds on Trump to make concessions he never wanted to make. 2/
Keane: The more flexible political figures have been sidelined. The foreign minister has little power.

These talks reflect the views of the head of the IRGC, and these are bona fide hardliners. The men with the guns are the dominant power in Tehran now. 3/
Keane: They will absorb suffering far beyond anything we think is tolerable because they do not care about the suffering of their people.

Their goal is simple: stay in power and preserve the regime. That is where they are coming from in these talks. 4X
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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 30
Ukraine wants to intercept 95% of Russia's long-range drones.

Borys, commander, 420th Unmanned Systems battalion: "Even if you use 50 drones to shoot down one Shahed, it's worth it. One Shahed can fly in and destroy something far more valuable" — Reuters. 1/ Image
1,000 of 6,500 Russian long-range drones got through last month — Ukrainian air force data.

The hits stripped heating and lighting from millions and gutted energy facilities, military sites, and cities. 2/
In Feb, Defense Minister Fedorov set a 95% interception target. The rate that month: just over 85%.

This month it hit 90%, Fedorov told Reuters. With Russia's land push stalled, he says air defense is vital to surviving another year of war. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 30
Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, Zaluzhnyi: The old world order didn't enter turbulence. It no longer exists

Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, Venezuela and now the Middle East all show the same thing: rules exist on paper, but there is no force to enforce them. 1/
Zaluzhnyi: If any world order still exists, it is the order of the strong.

America is now telling Europe it is no longer the guarantor of European security and that Europe’s security is now in Europe’s own hands. That alone shows the old order is over. 2/
Zaluzhnyi: Whether this is already a third world war, historians will decide later.

But as witnesses, we can see an unfinished war in Ukraine, an unfinished war in the Middle East, and no mechanism able to prevent a third, fourth, or fifth war from breaking out. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 30
Yelizarov, founder of drone battalion that destroyed $14B worth of Russian equipment: Risk of tactical nuclear use is real. Partners must define a response in advance.

If Ukraine raises efficiency and enemy losses, it could demoralize Russia and enable a counteroffensive.

1/
Yelizarov: Russia faces manpower shortages. Ukraine could inflict more losses, but targets are limited.

Current Russian losses are about 30–35k per month. If Russia pushes harder, losses rise; if it slows down, they stay around that level.

2/
Yelizarov: Ukraine lost drone advantage. In 2022–23 we stopped Russia and stabilized the front, but didn’t retake territory.

With faster adaptation, we could have. That window is gone.

3X
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 30
Apolitical Russians are starting to feel the war.

Influencer Victoria Bonya[13m followers] urged Putin to “face the truth”: floods in Dagestan, oil spills on the Black Sea coast, internet blackouts and cattle culls in Siberia.

Five days later: 30 million views, The Economist.1/ Image
Bonya is not an opposition politician or activist. She lives near Monaco and sells vegan cosmetics and clothing.

But she addressed Putin: "People are afraid of you, bloggers are afraid, artists are afraid, governors are afraid. But people should not be afraid of their president. I am not afraid." 2/
Her video is not a call to revolutio, but the reaction to it is more telling than its content. Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party, told deputies that the video should be taken seriously if the Kremlin wants to avoid another Bolshevik revolution. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 30
Keane: Three weeks into a ceasefire, a deal acceptable to Trump still looks far away.

The reason is simple: the Iranians do not really want a deal. They are playing for time, betting political and economic pressure on Trump will force concessions or make him walk away. 1/
Keane: Keep the blockade, but go back to military operations. When the ceasefire began, about two weeks of assigned objectives still remained.

Central Command has doubled its capability, Israel has replenished munitions, and the next campaign can be far more aggressive. 2/
Keane: Some will argue the blockade alone can break Tehran. Trump rejects that. The regime’s only objective is to survive and stay in power.

Economic collapse, blackouts, gas lines, civilian suffering — none of that will make it give in. That is exactly who they are. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 30
Zelenskyy: Ukraine is opening exports of drones, missiles, ammunition and combat software.

The format is called Drone Deals — special intergovernmental agreements on the production and supply of Ukrainian weapons to partners. 1/ Image
Zelenskyy: How it works: first an intergovernmental agreement is signed on the basis of reciprocity, defining the framework for cooperation.

Then work begins at the level of state institutions and manufacturers. Bureaucratic procedures are simplified but export controls are maintained. 2/
Zelenskyy: The main condition: Ukrainian military takes the required volume of weapons first. Only the surplus beyond the state order goes to export.

Production capacity surplus for some types of weapons has already reached 50%. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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