Trump’s Iran war is pumping billions into Russia’s war machine.
Russia earned €713M per day from fossil fuels in Mar and collected €7.4B in taxes — a 2-year high as oil prices surged >50% after the war began, Foreign Affairs. 1/
Sanctions pressure weakened at the same time.
The US eased restrictions on Russian energy exports for 2 months to stabilize markets, allowing Moscow to sell more oil at higher prices with smaller discounts. 2/
Volumes rose, but revenues surged faster.
Oil exports increased ~16%, while seaborne crude revenues jumped ~115% in Mar, as global prices climbed and Urals discounts narrowed. 3/
Ukraine intensified strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.
Baltic and Black Sea export hubs like Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Tuapse were hit, cutting seaborne flows by ~50% in the past month. 4/
The price effect outweighs physical damage.
Ukraine caused ~$2B in losses to Russian energy assets, but higher global oil prices and sanctions relief offset the impact on Kremlin revenues. 5X
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