1/ Essential Ukraine #23 is out, sharing some conclusions from it (paywall). Bottom line: the specter of a larger war is becoming clearer to all: Ukraine cannot defeat Russia w/o NATO involvement, while Russia cannot impose victory w/o risking broader confrontation with Europe.
2/ The frontline relatively stabilized compared to the deterioration after the fall of Huliapolie. Russia retains the structural advantage in attrition warfare through manpower, strike capacity and industrial scale, but still lacks a credible pathway toward decisive victory.
3/ Ukraine meanwhile managed to stabilize parts of the battlefield through technological adaptation, drone warfare, improved logistics and battlefield re-organization. However, manpower shortages and a heavily degraded energy system continue narrowing Kyiv’s long-term options.
4/ The infrastructure war is becoming central. Russia’s continued strikes make the next winter a key strategic threshold. Ukrainian drones now reaches 70% of Russian population helping to erode the wartime patriotic consensus.
5/ The May 9 ceasefire confirmed that despite the collapse of formal negotiations, active US facilitation never stopped. Busy with Iran, Washington has at least escalation control. While Putin is under pressure at home, the war will continue as long as Donbas remains unresolved.
6/ Ukraine’s politics are becoming more volatile: the “Mindich Gate” affair is turning into the biggest internal political story of the war. With the case formally reaching Yermak, it now politically implicates the broader wartime governing system built around Zelensky.
7/ The consequences could be significant: erosion of the super-centralized wartime governance model, strengthening of anti-corruption agencies, and political rise of Budanov who increasingly positions himself for a longer-term transition inside the system.
8/ Ukraine’s demographic picture is becoming clearer (and alarming). According to the Social Policy Ministry, population under government-controlled territory may now be below 25 million. Only around 2 million refugees are expected to return after the war.
9/ Europe still cannot fully stabilize Ukraine financially beyond defense support, while EU conditionality is returning including through anti-corruption pressure. Rapid accession is off the table, depriving Zelensky the last vision of a strategic victory (institutional anchor)
10/ Base forecast scenario: the internal conditions of the war are becoming more important without ceasing to be military. Battlefield dynamics matter, but elite fragmentation, energy vulnerability and diplomacy increasingly shape the trajectory. Talks should resume by summer.
11/ This edition covers society, statecraft, infrastructure war, security and settlement with special sections on Mindich Gate, Fire Point, demographic decline, wartime billionaires, kinetic sanctions, Baltic spillover risks and US assistance. Subscribe: rpolitik.com/essential-ukra…
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