Thread by @clement_molin on Thread Reader App

Since the year started, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched more than 1 000 mid-range drone strikes (only geolocated ones).

The intensification of strikes against russian 🇷🇺 logistics (150 vehicles, 30 trains, 400 warehouses) is a real game-changer in the war.

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The ukrainian mid-range drone strike is quite recent. It started at the end of last year and quickly intensified in 2026.

Ukraine is using :
🔹Big fixed wings drones : FP-1/2
🔹Small fixed wings drones : Hornet/Bulava/RAM X...
🔹Short/Long range FPV.

Here 2 Hornet on a truck :

In total, I gathered more than 1 000 geolocations since january 2026 (sources provided at the end of the thread).

35% of the strikes hit depots and warehouses (we don't know what is inside most of the time). 20% hit vehicles and 7% hit air-defense.

These strikes are happening everyday. Keep in mind that what you see on the map only are geolocated videos.

On every published video, at least twice the number of strikes cannot be geolocated and much more are not published.

We currently have around 100 geolocated strikes per week, but again, remember we see only what Ukraine and Russia want to show us.

So now, let's go a little bit more deeper into the subject :

For months, Ukraine has been hitting multiple air-defense 🟡 systems as well as radars and EW🟠 systems across occupied territories.

All those strikes depleted Russian air-defense, and they havn't stopped in May.

Other strikes have been constantly hitting depots and warehouses 🔵 in multiple towns, with most of the time multiple strikes on a single area.

Those depots can hide air-defense, logistics, rear bases, ammunitions....

Many strikes also hit fuel and electricity targets⚪️

Those strikes have obviously some results, but we don't know too much about it since what is hit is hidden in depots.

Here, you can see a rear base hosting drone pilots which have been destroyed near Crimea.

And strikes like that are happening on a daily basis. Here is today's USF compilation of strikes with FP-2 drones on multiple targets (no yet on the map), including, at the end, many trucks.

Yesterday, multiple videos coming from the Melitopol-Crimea road appeared, showing large fire on trucks. Today, the GUR published some strikes on trucks, including air-defense truck and fuel truck.

We can see the aftermath of the event from above. The road wad effectively blocked.

To avoid the traffic jam, multiple trucks went on smaller roads of Kherson oblast, here near a canal on the Melitopol-Crimea road.

Cuting access to this road (brand new, very large allowing a lot of traffic) can significantly worsen russian forces situation in the south.

In fact, if we look the statistics, strikes against russian vehicles are constantly rising these last few month.

Few things to keep in mind :
🔹Not all are destroyed, but around half of the videos are showing the truck burning
🔹I counted around 133 trucks, 20 cars and 3 armoured vehicles

If we look to the map, we can see that multiple key roads are being hit, with more strikes hitting Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts these last few days :

x.com/99Dominik_/sta…
x.com/99Dominik_/sta…
x.com/moklasen/statu…
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x.com/clement_molin/…

Look at this map with the main supply roads targeted !

In total, I counted around 20 fuel trucks among those strikes. Is there any impact on the frontline ? Not yet, but Russian forces will eventually have shortage of supplies in multiple areas of the front.

What's next ?

This strike campaign is absolutely not isolated, it's growing, at the point multiple russian milbloggers have been alerting on the difficult situation.

This comes amid large difficulties for Russia this year.

In fact, for the very first time since 2023, Russia will lose territory in Ukraine this month, after the grey zone increased near Komar, in favour of Ukraine.

Ukraine mid-strike campaign is part of the reason for that, with russian offensive experiencing difficulties.

Russian milbloggers are not very happy with the situation, here are what one of them said (source : @moklasen)

What can Russia do ?

Not too much ! Putting an anti-drone net on all the main highways seems very difficult and costly.

Setting up air-defense post could work, but it would require much more troops, while Ukraine will strike those canon AD.

Ukrainian drones cannot be jammed and are too small to be seen on radar. The only solution for Russia is to scale drone based air-defense like Rubikon is doing. But for now, this has not been scaled and has nearly no effect.

The consequences for Russia are massive. The kill zone will expand to 20, 30 or even 50km, drones will target any convoy to the Azov Sea and any offensive preparation will be easily targeted.

The difficult situation on the frontline will not immediately change, but russian forces will experience supplies shortages more often.

If Ukraine was to launch counter-attacks on specific areas of the frontline throughout the summer, it will be able to cut any reinforcement, to target any russian movement and to avoid part of the drone threat (except fiber optic) thanks to good jamming.

Thus the logistical situation is becoming critical for Russia. If only a small proportion of trucks are currently being hit (probably 1 to 5% maximum on the most important roads), this is enough, if it continues, to create a difficult situation in the rear.

That's all what I could say on the current situation in russian occupied territories. I will continue to cover the situation.

If you want to support Ukraine, here is a good permanent fundraising : x.com/sternenko/stat…

To support me : buymeacoffee.com/clement.molin

Thanks !

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