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Clément Molin

@clement_molin

May 29 • 24 tweets • 21 min read • Read on X

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Since the year started, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched more than 1 000 mid-range drone strikes (only geolocated ones).

The intensification of strikes against russian 🇷🇺 logistics (150 vehicles, 30 trains, 400 warehouses) is a real game-changer in the war.

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️

The ukrainian mid-range drone strike is quite recent. It started at the end of last year and quickly intensified in 2026.

Ukraine is using :
🔹Big fixed wings drones : FP-1/2
🔹Small fixed wings drones : Hornet/Bulava/RAM X...
🔹Short/Long range FPV.

Here 2 Hornet on a truck :

In total, I gathered more than 1 000 geolocations since january 2026 (sources provided at the end of the thread).

35% of the strikes hit depots and warehouses (we don't know what is inside most of the time). 20% hit vehicles and 7% hit air-defense.

These strikes are happening everyday. Keep in mind that what you see on the map only are geolocated videos.

On every published video, at least twice the number of strikes cannot be geolocated and much more are not published.

We currently have around 100 geolocated strikes per week, but again, remember we see only what Ukraine and Russia want to show us.

So now, let's go a little bit more deeper into the subject :

For months, Ukraine has been hitting multiple air-defense 🟡 systems as well as radars and EW🟠 systems across occupied territories.

All those strikes depleted Russian air-defense, and they havn't stopped in May.

Other strikes have been constantly hitting depots and warehouses 🔵 in multiple towns, with most of the time multiple strikes on a single area.

Those depots can hide air-defense, logistics, rear bases, ammunitions....

Many strikes also hit fuel and electricity targets⚪️

Those strikes have obviously some results, but we don't know too much about it since what is hit is hidden in depots.

Here, you can see a rear base hosting drone pilots which have been destroyed near Crimea.

And strikes like that are happening on a daily basis. Here is today's USF compilation of strikes with FP-2 drones on multiple targets (no yet on the map), including, at the end, many trucks.

Yesterday, multiple videos coming from the Melitopol-Crimea road appeared, showing large fire on trucks. Today, the GUR published some strikes on trucks, including air-defense truck and fuel truck.

We can see the aftermath of the event from above. The road wad effectively blocked.

To avoid the traffic jam, multiple trucks went on smaller roads of Kherson oblast, here near a canal on the Melitopol-Crimea road.

Cuting access to this road (brand new, very large allowing a lot of traffic) can significantly worsen russian forces situation in the south.

In fact, if we look the statistics, strikes against russian vehicles are constantly rising these last few month.

Few things to keep in mind :
🔹Not all are destroyed, but around half of the videos are showing the truck burning
🔹I counted around 133 trucks, 20 cars and 3 armoured vehicles

If we look to the map, we can see that multiple key roads are being hit, with more strikes hitting Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts these last few days :

x.com/99Dominik_/sta…
x.com/99Dominik_/sta…
x.com/moklasen/statu…
x.com/moklasen/statu…
x.com/clement_molin/…

Look at this map with the main supply roads targeted !

In total, I counted around 20 fuel trucks among those strikes. Is there any impact on the frontline ? Not yet, but Russian forces will eventually have shortage of supplies in multiple areas of the front.

What's next ?

This strike campaign is absolutely not isolated, it's growing, at the point multiple russian milbloggers have been alerting on the difficult situation.

This comes amid large difficulties for Russia this year.

In fact, for the very first time since 2023, Russia will lose territory in Ukraine this month, after the grey zone increased near Komar, in favour of Ukraine.

Ukraine mid-strike campaign is part of the reason for that, with russian offensive experiencing difficulties.

Russian milbloggers are not very happy with the situation, here are what one of them said (source : @moklasen)

What can Russia do ?

Not too much ! Putting an anti-drone net on all the main highways seems very difficult and costly.

Setting up air-defense post could work, but it would require much more troops, while Ukraine will strike those canon AD.

Ukrainian drones cannot be jammed and are too small to be seen on radar. The only solution for Russia is to scale drone based air-defense like Rubikon is doing. But for now, this has not been scaled and has nearly no effect.

The consequences for Russia are massive. The kill zone will expand to 20, 30 or even 50km, drones will target any convoy to the Azov Sea and any offensive preparation will be easily targeted.

The difficult situation on the frontline will not immediately change, but russian forces will experience supplies shortages more often.

If Ukraine was to launch counter-attacks on specific areas of the frontline throughout the summer, it will be able to cut any reinforcement, to target any russian movement and to avoid part of the drone threat (except fiber optic) thanks to good jamming.

Thus the logistical situation is becoming critical for Russia. If only a small proportion of trucks are currently being hit (probably 1 to 5% maximum on the most important roads), this is enough, if it continues, to create a difficult situation in the rear.

That's all what I could say on the current situation in russian occupied territories. I will continue to cover the situation.

If you want to support Ukraine, here is a good permanent fundraising : x.com/sternenko/stat…

To support me : buymeacoffee.com/clement.molin

Thanks !

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More from @clement_molin

Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Jul 25

Who controls Kostiantynivka 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 ?

There is a very big debate to know who really controls the city of Kostiantynivka, in the Donbas region.

Many maps are showing the city as Russian controled, which in my opinion is not true, as I will explain it here.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️

I gathered geolocations for the last 40 days in the city, from @UAControlMap, mainly done by @AudaxonX.

Those geolocations show flag videos, air, artillery and drone strikes as well as assault videos.

3 things you should know :

🔸We only see 5% maximum of the real situation on videos, those are known positions at a given moment, which is nowhere close to the reality on the ground.
🔸There is an important image assymetry. Russia is posting more videos of flags and few strikes while Ukraine doesn't publish flag videos but publish much more strikes. Thus, I have 146 places where Russian are confirmed present, against 94 Ukrainian. This doesn't mean there are more Russians than Ukraine, Russia published 70 videos of flags !
🔸On the map, we have plenty of areas undereported, with few Ukrainian positions when we know there are many or few Russian positions when we know there are many.

According to my observations, the situation is a 70/90 :

Ukrainian troops are present in 70% of the city while Russian troops are present in 90% of the city.

According to my informations, there are still more Ukrainians than Russians in the city, but the situation continues to worsen.

Read 16 tweets

Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Jul 25

https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2072664641386226075

For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched a large mechanized assault in the Dobropilla-Drujkivka area

Two armoured columns reinforced by multiple unarmoured vehicles from the 90th tank division and the 41st/8th CAA attempted to breakthrough in the Shakove area.

As you can see in the quoted tweet, this area has been subjected to heavy airstrike campaign for more than one month, while it remained a secondary direction until may. You can see here in white the recent airstrikes impacts in this direction, the same one where Russia obtained a breakthrough last year. Azov 1st Corps, which has been successfully defending the area for nearly a year managed to prevent any armoured breakthrough, showing multiple destroyed vehicles and pontoon bridges. However, infiltrations are slowly getting more frequent and Russian soldiers are often recorded behind the current grey zone, despite the absence of visual proof. As you can see, Russian armies in this direction are not doing too much PR videos with flags, which is why we have fewer flag videos. This area is right now the most strategic of the Donbas, Russia absolutely needs to control it to be able to reach Dobropilla or Drujkivka to have a fire control over the roads leading to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Why did Russia launch a mechanized assault here ? The main reason is how difficult it is to get there. We've recently seen videos of an impressive number of logistical and assault unarmoured vehicles destroyed on roads leading to here. This area is one of the deadliest, with older Ukrainian fortifications complicating any movement. Launching a mechanized assault helps to bring hundreds of men close to the front (even if 150 die and 150 manage to reach those positions, all of them will be able to assault and infiltrate further in the coming weeks).

As I said a month ago, I was expecting a large scale assault here, in order to unblock the front leading to Drujkivka and Dobropilla. As Russian soldiers are infiltrating and consolidating into Kosiantynivka, they will slowly manage to take full control over the city (maybe until autumn, the same way it happened in Toretsk), now the priority for them is to prepare the next battle, for Drujkivka.

https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2072664641386226075

Videos of the repelled assault : x.com/azov_media/sta…
x.com/moklasen/statu…

https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2075566541328797862?s=20

About the destroyed vehicles in this area :

https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2075566541328797862?s=20

Read 4 tweets

Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Jul 23

Ukraine's 🇺🇦 mid-range strike campaign against Russian 🇷🇺 logistics continues, with more than 1 350 strikes on trucks and vehicles since early may

Railways, air-defense systems and energy infrastructure is also being hit on a daily basis.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️

Yesterday, @414magyarbirds posted an update about strikes on the key R-280 highway, so called "Novorossia" road between Rostov and Crimea.

On this road alone, I have around 175 geolocalized trucks and vehicles hit since early may.

It is highly likely that the number of trucks and vehicles hit by Ukrainian drones this month will be higher than the previous one, especially since video compilations are much more centralised by the USF.

We should expect a large number of videos for the end of the month.

Read 16 tweets

Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Jul 11

In recent weeks, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched a large number of strikes against electricity infrastructure in Crimea

Since 2026 started, both Ukraine and Russia 🇷🇺 launched continuous strikes against each other energy infrastructure.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️

Recently, most of Crimea has been without power after a large number of Ukrainian strikes (source : @georgewbarros).

You can see here that most of the peninsula was lacking electricity, including large cities.

In total, around 37 electric substations have been hit, together with oil and gas infrastructure.

This has drastic consequences on both civilian and military infrastructure of the peninsula.

Read 10 tweets

Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Jul 8

During the first week of July, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to target Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and logistics, hitting more than 240 vehicles, 34 per day.

Despite fewer coverage, these strikes continue to be a very big problem for Russian forces across occupied territories.

🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️

The number of strikes continue to increase, with nearly 600 trucks and vehicles hit in june 2026 (around 20 per day) and already 240 for the 1st week of july (34 per day).

All these strikes are only the confirmed ones from ukrainian videos, I do not count videos from the ground.

Today, the Ukrainian army of drones () published a compilation of nearly 200 strikes on trucks and vehicles near Crimea.

This video covers multiple units work for the 1st week of July. The good point ? Everything is proven. t.me/robert_magyar/…

Read 8 tweets

Clément Molin

@clement_molin

Jul 3

Let's dive in Russian 🇷🇺 war propaganda machine

Recently, new videos emerged of Russian soldiers showing their flag far behind the frontline.

What is important about that is the aim of these operations : to show to the Russian command.

1/9 ⬇️

Russian flag videos are almost always the same. One or two Russian soldiers walk along the front line for weeks, evading Ukrainian detection.

Upon reaching the rear, they spend a day wandering through an entire village with their flag, while a drone overhead films them.

They are often not armed and will stay in the village for a long time, hidden in a basement, most of the time being found and captured/killed and sometimes go back to their lines.

These soldiers are not meant to disrupt Ukrainian rear but to create the illusion Russia controls an area.

Read 9 tweets

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