Ukraine and Iran expose the same illusion: technology delivers a quick victory
The Economist: bridges and power plants are now standard targets in war planning. In 2022 US put 50-50 odds on Russia going nuclear if Ukraine broke through to Crimea. The red lines exist,but where?1/
The Uppsala Conflict Data Programme counted 65 active state-based conflicts in 2025—the highest number since records began in 1946.
The Peace Research Institute Oslo calls the past four years the most violent period since the Cold War. 2/
Every day, Ukraine and Russia build thousands of FPV drones designed to hunt a single soldier, vehicle, or position.
The Economist estimates the war has killed or wounded 1.1–1.4 million Russian troops—about one in 25 Russian men under 50. 3/
The same technology that gives armies more eyes also gives defenders more ways to survive.
Ukraine turned cheap FPV drones into a 30-km kill zone. Russian troops cross fields on foot. Ukrainian soldiers spend weeks crawling through forests to reach positions near Myrnohrad.
Drones watch everything. 4/
Russia launched its 2022 invasion expecting a fast collapse of Kyiv.
The U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury expecting precision strikes, AI targeting, and airpower to force Iran into submission.
Both wars exposed the same mistake: leaders confused military tools with political outcomes. 5/
Operation Epic Fury struck 13,000 targets.
American officials say they destroyed 80% of Iran’s air defenses, hit 450 missile-storage sites, 800 drone-storage sites, and more than 2,000 command nodes.
Iran still launches missiles. The Strait of Hormuz still hangs over global trade. 6/
Technology keeps speeding up war.
Britain says sensor-to-shooter time already fell by 33%.
American targeting systems handled about 400 targets a day during Epic Fury. Commanders now want 1,500 targets every 24 hours. Some AI systems aim for 5,000.
7/
Ukraine shows how fast adaptation beats expensive systems.
Russia crushed Excalibur GPS-guided shells. Their hit rate fell from 70% to 6% within months.
Both armies now use fiber-optic drones, ground robots, drone resupply missions, and constant software updates.
8/
Every generation believes new technology will finally remove uncertainty from war.
Machine guns. Airpower. Precision missiles. AI.
Leaders still chase the fantasy that technology can deliver a clean, decisive victory. Reality keeps proving otherwise. 9X
Source:
economist.com/interactive/es…
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