Free newsletter: The ROI debate has come at worst time for Anthropic and OpenAI - two companies that can’t afford to slow down thanks to their $1.1 trillion in compute commitments and a data center buildout that needs a trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
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My appearance on Bloomberg last week ruffled some feathers because I don't have "skin in the game" (IE: money in the market). This is because AI boosters can't imagine somebody with a moral position on an industry run by grifters and sold with lies.
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The AI industry is anxious because it knows it made too many egregious promises. There are 190GW+ in planned AI data centers, and to justify their existence, they'll need $2 trillion+ in AI compute revenue by 2030.
There's currently less than $100bn.
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Anthropic and OpenAI need to be making over $170 billion each in annual revenue by EOY 2029 to keep up with their $1.1 trillion in compute commitments.
As we speak, customers are already cutting their AI token spend thanks to a lack of measurable ROI.
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The current scale of the AI industry is less than 10% of where it needs to be by 2030 to substantiate both Anthropic and OpenAI's projected revenues and the 190GW+ of planned data center capacity. It cannot afford to slow down for even a single month.
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The shift to token-based billing, which just happened in Q1 2026, has given corporate America a bad case of sticker shock, and they’ve started to rein in their AI use. AI is slowing down at exactly the worst time for OpenAI and Anthropic's IPOs.
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The tech industry is meant to be a community of meritocracy and harsh rationality - yet they continue to coddle products with questionable ROI, ruinous costs and many data points that suggest LLMs create a lot of slop software that nobody uses.
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Both Claude Code and OpenClaw's televangelists are saying that their users must start using "loops" instead of "prompts" to burn more tokens. This is a transparent attempt to push users to spend more on tokens at a time when the companies are desperate.
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No matter how much you dress up whatever AI service has gaslit you into believing it’s sentient, generative AI is inherently limited, impossibly expensive and economically unviable. And it needs to be ten times larger than it is in less than four years.
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I’m going to leave you with a little tease. In the next few weeks, I’ll publish a newsletter that will reveal, with numbers that were never meant to be shown, something that very well may burst the AI bubble.
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The damning figures I received came from a source.
And if you have something to share, please contact me. I feel your pain and your anger, and I see how you have been mistreated. And I will protect your identity. My signal is ezitron.76.
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If you want to support my work, consider signing up for a subscription. For $7-a-month or $70 annually, you get weekly deep dives into the AI bubble that are anywhere from 10,000 to 20,000 words long, and helps support these free pieces too.
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