Thread by @laurnorman

There’s a real question mark over what nuclear commitments Iran has made in an MoU. There’s a suggestion from a senior U.S. official that they made commitments on stockpile, decommissioning sites, stopping nuclear program. But a closer look suggests some of that is deceptive. -1-

So let’s dissect what’s going on here. A US official was asked if Iran had committed to a specific timeline for dismantling its program. Here’s the answer… -2-

“Yeah, so I think there are two elements to the question. One is they are committing indefinitely to never procure or develop nuclear weapons, that is a significant concession, something the president cared a great deal about.” Ok stop there. Iran has always said that. But it -3-

was clear the White House wanted that commitment again upfront of an MoU deal. Official continues… “And then, of course, there's a separate issue about how do you enforce that, how do you ensure that that, that, that doesn't happen, you know, we're not happy with a well…”-4-

“…say we're happy with the commitment to not build a nuclear weapon, but we have to verify that, and that's why the deal is structured in the way that it is, is to ensure that there's a verification and inspections regime, and that they don't receive the benefit of the..” -5-

“of the negotiation until we see that they're actually taking the affirmative steps in order to dismantle that nuclear program.”
Ok let’s stop there again. The issue is not really verification of the Iranian no nukes pledge. Verification would be about checking what work -6-

Iran is or isn’t doing on the ground. If you pledge to decommission sites or dismantle program, it’s pretty easy to figure whether that’s being done or isn’t with some inspectors on the ground. The official continues… -7-

🔥🔥And this to me is the key line. “So, yes, they are committing indefinitely to not build or procure a nuclear weapon, and then you know we're going to have to figure out exactly how we enforce that, and if we feel comfortable with how that we, if we feel comfortable with…”-8-

“the inspection and enforcement regime, that is when they will get some of the benefits of negotiation.”
So how to read all this in terms of what Iran has actually committed to?…-9-

My read is that Iran has clearly committed to not develop or procure nukes. Fine. Also that it made a more specific commitment to destroying the HEU stockpile though no clarity of the rest of stockpile will also be destroyed. Or when it will happen. -10-

It seems likely to me that the extent of Iran’s nuclear commitments in MoU stop there. There may be a set of “milestones” as the official put it for which Iran would get additional sanctions relief if Iran does them. So eg, dismantle sites and Iran gets x sanctions relief. -11-

But I’m skeptical of any account that says Iran has committed to dismantling its sites and its program in the MoU. That was a phrase used at one point by the official so some people might take that on face value. But I think it’s most likely that Iran has committed no nukes… -12

and that any steps it takes along the path of suspending or stopping its program are to be negotiated and would be future steps to win broader sanctions relief.
I’m open to being corrected if I’m wrong. -13-