Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pitt...

Jun 21, 9 tweets

Five years into the largest war in Europe since 1945, Putin still has not declared war on Ukraine. He calls it a "special military operation."

Russia has mobilized hundreds of thousands and turned its whole economy toward the front. The refusal is deliberate — United24. 1/

Because the word war changes how people act. Call it war, and Russians start to fear mobilization, shortages and death, and they panic.

An operation sounds clinical and contained, handled by professionals and over soon. It let Russians carry on while the army kept fighting. 2/

Because Moscow expected a quick win. In February 2022 it claimed Kyiv would fall in three days and the Kyiv regime would collapse.

A declared war signals an uncertain, costly fight. An operation implied confidence, a short timeline and a job Russia could finish on schedule. 3/

Because of the brotherly peoples myth. For years Putin called Ukrainians and Russians one people and denied Ukraine is a real nation in a 5,000-word essay.

You cannot declare war on brothers, or on a country you say does not exist. Moscow called it demilitarizing, not war. 4/

Because the label gave legal room. A formal declaration of war triggers procedures and obligations under Russian law.

The operation tag let the Kremlin tighten slowly. Censorship first, then partial mobilization, then a budget redirected to weapons, before Russians noticed. 5/

Because the wording worked abroad. A war of conquest is hard to defend, so Moscow sold a narrow, technical operation instead.

The ambiguity gave sympathetic governments cover to echo the framing, delay weapons for Ukraine and tell themselves the crisis was smaller than it was 6/

Russia could have declared war. No constitution stopped it. The invasion has run past 1,500 days, the length of World War I.

Putin's army grew to nearly 2.4 million. Over 900,000 Russian troops are dead or wounded and 10 million Ukrainians have fled their homes. This is a war 7X

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