Five years into the largest war in Europe since 1945, Putin still has not declared war on Ukraine. He calls it a "special military operation."
Russia has mobilized hundreds of thousands and turned its whole economy toward the front. The refusal is deliberate — United24. 1/
Because the word war changes how people act. Call it war, and Russians start to fear mobilization, shortages and death, and they panic.
An operation sounds clinical and contained, handled by professionals and over soon. It let Russians carry on while the army kept fighting. 2/
Because Moscow expected a quick win. In February 2022 it claimed Kyiv would fall in three days and the Kyiv regime would collapse.
A declared war signals an uncertain, costly fight. An operation implied confidence, a short timeline and a job Russia could finish on schedule. 3/
Because of the brotherly peoples myth. For years Putin called Ukrainians and Russians one people and denied Ukraine is a real nation in a 5,000-word essay.
You cannot declare war on brothers, or on a country you say does not exist. Moscow called it demilitarizing, not war. 4/
Because the label gave legal room. A formal declaration of war triggers procedures and obligations under Russian law.
The operation tag let the Kremlin tighten slowly. Censorship first, then partial mobilization, then a budget redirected to weapons, before Russians noticed. 5/
Because the wording worked abroad. A war of conquest is hard to defend, so Moscow sold a narrow, technical operation instead.
The ambiguity gave sympathetic governments cover to echo the framing, delay weapons for Ukraine and tell themselves the crisis was smaller than it was 6/
Russia could have declared war. No constitution stopped it. The invasion has run past 1,500 days, the length of World War I.
Putin's army grew to nearly 2.4 million. Over 900,000 Russian troops are dead or wounded and 10 million Ukrainians have fled their homes. This is a war 7X
Ukrainian strikes have already disabled almost 40% of primary oil refining in European Russia
Russia runs its war on refined fuel. Diesel moves trucks and logistics. Jet fuel keeps aviation in the air. Generators need fuel every day, — Hromadske. 1/
Ukraine is hitting the core refinery units that turn crude into usable fuel.
These units are large, complex and hard to replace under sanctions.
Every successful strike removes capacity, adds repair time and increases pressure on the Russian fuel system. 2/
The route from refinery to front is long.
Fuel leaves the plant, moves to depots, goes by rail toward Rostov or Bataysk, reaches local bases, then moves by tanker trucks to Russian units.
Every broken refinery creates delays across this route. 3/
Kuleba: Name one Ukrainian politician of national significance who builds their rating on anti-Polish slogans. You can't. In Poland there are many.
And the president leads them, not with open slogans, but with actions that make life worse for Ukrainians in Poland and at home. 1/
Kuleba: Poland's core interest: if Ukraine falls, Poland is next. Every Polish politician believes this. Ukraine's core interest: EU membership.
These two issues must be encapsulated and protected from the political storms that will keep tearing at our countries. 2/
Kuleba: We must remember 2022 with gratitude, Poles opened doors, hearts and arms when it defied all logic of prior relations
But now Ukraine must support Ukrainians in Poland. These constant scandals will accelerate their assimilation. People will stop being openly Ukrainian 3/
Bolton: Iran deal requires Israel to withdraw all forces from Lebanon. I see zero chance of that.
But it gives Iran, through Hezbollah, the ability to punish Israel and have Trump and Vance criticize the Israelis for defending themselves. A powerful political weapon. 1/
Bolton: This deal is a powerful tool to split the Great Satan from the Little Satan.
Vance's vitriol toward Israel, saying it was 'built with American money', won't sit well with Israelis or Americans who view Israel as a key ally. Vance has embraced the role of architect here. 2/
Bolton: Compare the rhetoric of JD Vance on Iran to Rob Malley and Barack Obama. It's very hard to tell the difference
Trump jokingly said he might blame Vance if this doesn't go well. If Vance wants this deal, fine, but if he doesn't, he'll have to find his own way out of it 3X
Hodges: Putin's nightmare — momentum shifts irreversibly in Ukraine's favor. He loses oil and gas exports. Oligarchs push back openly. Europe begins stopping shadow fleet vessels in the Baltic and Black Sea.
When all of that converges — it's over for him. He'll know it. 1/
Hodges: Russia's professional military knows Putin's war has destroyed or severely damaged Russia's armed forces — even Russia's ability to defend itself.
I could imagine the military leadership at some point saying: this is enough. We want to accelerate to that point. 2/
Hodges: Minister Federov says the goal is 50,000 Russian casualties per month. Dramatic — losses that can never be replaced. Ukraine wants to accelerate the collapse.
Too many still believe Russia can't be defeated. That narrative doesn't reflect the reality on the ground. 3X
Hodges: The Kerch Bridge is a high-payoff target, not just logistically but psychologically. Destroying Putin's bridge would demolish morale and erode the false narrative of inevitable Russian victory
The Ukrainians will pick the right time. It will require a lot of explosive 1/
Hodges: Russia can't rebuild the Kerch Bridge quickly — especially if an entire span drops. There's a reason no bridge existed there before. Massive engineering undertaking.
The Ukrainians have already been degrading its defenses and weakening the structure systematically. 2/
Hodges: Ukraine's long-range precision strikes on Russia's oil and gas — this is the path to victory. When Russia can no longer export, that cuts off the only income sustaining the war.
It also proves to Russians that the Putin regime cannot protect them from Ukraine. 3/