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Independent military history author and researcher. Coffee tips are appreciated! https://t.co/t1EjNrIZ2c Now also at https://t.co/4qGQ2ffHJJ

Jul 10, 30 tweets

1/ Is Alexey Melnichenko's interview in The Economist a worthwhile vision of Russia's future, or a sneaky British provocation? Opinion among Russian commentators is divided, with some praising the oligarch's views and others looking for a hidden agenda. ⬇️

2/ (For part 1 of this thread, see the link below.)

3/ 'Intelligence Diary' comments that Melnichenko was approaching the question of Russia's future from a rather different perspective, but had come to the same conclusions as the author:

4/ "This next stage will be not just more important, but decisive. Russia's fate depends on how it manages these new opportunities—whether it will follow the path of disintegration or find the internal reserves to turn around, seize the initiative, and so on.

5/ "To regain its former strength, a complete overhaul of all approaches and the very structure of our world is necessary. And without any hesitation.

6/ "The post-Soviet border states scattered from a weakened Moscow in search of a new patron. Such is the fate of border states—to cling to the strong. But they didn't scatter immediately, having first milked Russia for all it was worth.

7/ "The Russian elite sincerely believed that sharing the proceeds from the sale of a common inheritance would guarantee the loyalty and fidelity of their criminal partners.

8/ "The overwhelming majority of the "new Russians," i.e., those who have recently come to be mistakenly called the "elite," are essentially money changers, or, more simply, hucksters, for whom only material things—finances, pipelines, hydrocarbons—are valuable.

9/ "For them, these are ends, not means. They treat the humanities, faith, culture, and ideology with marked disdain, as they fail to understand how they can be converted into serious cash.

10/ "Therefore, they squandered or gifted to their "esteemed partners" the priceless legacy of their ancestors, without which Russia was rapidly turning into a "territory rich in minerals and other resources."

11/ "The "esteemed partners" paid them for this by allowing them to profit from hydrocarbon rents for a time. "Gas in exchange for yachts." Expensive, opulent, clear and understandable.

12/ "Bottom line: Russia, surrounded by a dense ring of enemies, still isn't even trying to offer the city and the world its Project, a vision of the future—not just its own, but that of the entire so-called "global community."

13/ "What it's building and where it's striving. Where it's heading, and where it will lead a world stuck in its own past.

14/ "Without this [vision], the country risks completely slipping to the side of the main road, becoming an object of encroachment not even by the collective West, but by neighboring uluses (districts); and the process of semi-decay will turn into a process of final collapse,…

15/ …and 1991 will appear as merely the prologue to a larger tragedy. For now, this can be avoided with relatively little bloodshed, but the clock of history is inexorably ticking, leaving us with ever less time and room to manoeuvre."

16/ Oleg Tsarev is also supportive of Melnichenko's conclusions:

"An internal debate about Russia's future is inevitable. But its place is after the war and within the country. And the world's choice is not between love and hate, not between punishment and forgiveness."

17/ "It is a choice between two futures: either the powers relearn to respect each other's sovereignty, or each reduces the others to objects of control. The second path has already brought us here.

18/ "The main thing is to step back from the abyss. Only then will we understand how we got here and how to organize the world differently. This is the work of the next generation. Our job is to leave them something to work with.

19/ "The interview is interesting. It's worth reading in its entirety. It's a rare case of a major Russian entrepreneur formulating a strategic, rather than tactical, vision of what's happening."

20/ The Russian philosopher and political scientist Boris Mezhuev comments that he is "uneasy" about the import of Melnichenko's views:

21/ "Regarding Melnichenko. To be honest, the plea, "Please leave us our sovereignty. If you don't, it will be worse for you," leaves a painful impression. Since the people on the other side are calculating, extremely cold, and utterly ruthless, the plea is completely pointless.

22/ "At the same time, frankly, none of the cries from the emigrant camp, "Moscow is in ruins, Russia is defeated," had the same effect: perhaps for the first time, I actually felt uneasy."

23/ 'Visionary Channel' hints at some kind of wider agenda behind the interview, possibly involving the perfidious British:

24/ "The media continues to reel from the triumphant appearance of the Belarusian-Russian-UAE "mineral king" Andrei Melnichenko (whose activities allegedly account for almost 1% of Russia's GDP) on the cover of the British globalist mouthpiece The Economist, with his plan for…

25/ …the future coexistence of sovereign Russia and the West. Moreover, the wave is increasingly mysteriously positive, including in the official Kremlin media. Meanwhile, foreign opposition figures, on the contrary, grumble and sneer with discontent.

26/ "Meanwhile, the wily British magazine is touting Melnichenko as someone ready to play a key role in rebuilding Russia and its place in the world. Moreover, it's hinted that this plan is partly coordinated with Putin..."

27/ The author wonders:

"In form, everything is kept within the bounds of acceptability: supposedly, the "Melnichenko phenomenon" happened for Western elites, not Russian ones—supposedly, a window of opportunity has opened for resuming dialogue.

28/ "In reality, everyone is now awaiting the Kremlin's reaction, wondering to what extent this move was coordinated with Putin and how deeply the message conveyed by this profound "Melnichenko phenomenon" is penetrating the state apparatus and elites within Russia.

29/ "Against the backdrop of Putin's latest "pause" in response to yet another "blow," the contours of the reactions of various actors in Russia to this move by the "planner" are tensely discerned.

Is it all just beginning? Or is there nothing left to begin?" /end

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