1/ Is Alexey Melnichenko's interview in The Economist a worthwhile vision of Russia's future, or a sneaky British provocation? Opinion among Russian commentators is divided, with some praising the oligarch's views and others looking for a hidden agenda. ⬇️
2/ (For part 1 of this thread, see the link below.)
3/ 'Intelligence Diary' comments that Melnichenko was approaching the question of Russia's future from a rather different perspective, but had come to the same conclusions as the author:
4/ "This next stage will be not just more important, but decisive. Russia's fate depends on how it manages these new opportunities—whether it will follow the path of disintegration or find the internal reserves to turn around, seize the initiative, and so on.
5/ "To regain its former strength, a complete overhaul of all approaches and the very structure of our world is necessary. And without any hesitation.
6/ "The post-Soviet border states scattered from a weakened Moscow in search of a new patron. Such is the fate of border states—to cling to the strong. But they didn't scatter immediately, having first milked Russia for all it was worth.
7/ "The Russian elite sincerely believed that sharing the proceeds from the sale of a common inheritance would guarantee the loyalty and fidelity of their criminal partners.
8/ "The overwhelming majority of the "new Russians," i.e., those who have recently come to be mistakenly called the "elite," are essentially money changers, or, more simply, hucksters, for whom only material things—finances, pipelines, hydrocarbons—are valuable.
9/ "For them, these are ends, not means. They treat the humanities, faith, culture, and ideology with marked disdain, as they fail to understand how they can be converted into serious cash.
10/ "Therefore, they squandered or gifted to their "esteemed partners" the priceless legacy of their ancestors, without which Russia was rapidly turning into a "territory rich in minerals and other resources."
11/ "The "esteemed partners" paid them for this by allowing them to profit from hydrocarbon rents for a time. "Gas in exchange for yachts." Expensive, opulent, clear and understandable.
12/ "Bottom line: Russia, surrounded by a dense ring of enemies, still isn't even trying to offer the city and the world its Project, a vision of the future—not just its own, but that of the entire so-called "global community."
13/ "What it's building and where it's striving. Where it's heading, and where it will lead a world stuck in its own past.
14/ "Without this [vision], the country risks completely slipping to the side of the main road, becoming an object of encroachment not even by the collective West, but by neighboring uluses (districts); and the process of semi-decay will turn into a process of final collapse,…
15/ …and 1991 will appear as merely the prologue to a larger tragedy. For now, this can be avoided with relatively little bloodshed, but the clock of history is inexorably ticking, leaving us with ever less time and room to manoeuvre."
16/ Oleg Tsarev is also supportive of Melnichenko's conclusions:
"An internal debate about Russia's future is inevitable. But its place is after the war and within the country. And the world's choice is not between love and hate, not between punishment and forgiveness."
17/ "It is a choice between two futures: either the powers relearn to respect each other's sovereignty, or each reduces the others to objects of control. The second path has already brought us here.
18/ "The main thing is to step back from the abyss. Only then will we understand how we got here and how to organize the world differently. This is the work of the next generation. Our job is to leave them something to work with.
19/ "The interview is interesting. It's worth reading in its entirety. It's a rare case of a major Russian entrepreneur formulating a strategic, rather than tactical, vision of what's happening."
20/ The Russian philosopher and political scientist Boris Mezhuev comments that he is "uneasy" about the import of Melnichenko's views:
21/ "Regarding Melnichenko. To be honest, the plea, "Please leave us our sovereignty. If you don't, it will be worse for you," leaves a painful impression. Since the people on the other side are calculating, extremely cold, and utterly ruthless, the plea is completely pointless.
22/ "At the same time, frankly, none of the cries from the emigrant camp, "Moscow is in ruins, Russia is defeated," had the same effect: perhaps for the first time, I actually felt uneasy."
23/ 'Visionary Channel' hints at some kind of wider agenda behind the interview, possibly involving the perfidious British:
24/ "The media continues to reel from the triumphant appearance of the Belarusian-Russian-UAE "mineral king" Andrei Melnichenko (whose activities allegedly account for almost 1% of Russia's GDP) on the cover of the British globalist mouthpiece The Economist, with his plan for…
25/ …the future coexistence of sovereign Russia and the West. Moreover, the wave is increasingly mysteriously positive, including in the official Kremlin media. Meanwhile, foreign opposition figures, on the contrary, grumble and sneer with discontent.
26/ "Meanwhile, the wily British magazine is touting Melnichenko as someone ready to play a key role in rebuilding Russia and its place in the world. Moreover, it's hinted that this plan is partly coordinated with Putin..."
27/ The author wonders:
"In form, everything is kept within the bounds of acceptability: supposedly, the "Melnichenko phenomenon" happened for Western elites, not Russian ones—supposedly, a window of opportunity has opened for resuming dialogue.
28/ "In reality, everyone is now awaiting the Kremlin's reaction, wondering to what extent this move was coordinated with Putin and how deeply the message conveyed by this profound "Melnichenko phenomenon" is penetrating the state apparatus and elites within Russia.
29/ "Against the backdrop of Putin's latest "pause" in response to yet another "blow," the contours of the reactions of various actors in Russia to this move by the "planner" are tensely discerned.
Is it all just beginning? Or is there nothing left to begin?" /end
1/ The Ukrainian drone strike campaign against Russian oil refineries is impacting daily life in Russia to an unprecedented extent. Drivers are being forced into desperate measures, such as buying diesel siphoned off from locomotives and resold by corrupt railway employees. ⬇️
2/ The Russian news outlet 'We can explain' notes that "there are now regions where there isn't a single accessible gas station." The channel's subscribers have shared how the gasoline shortage is changing their daily lives:
3/👨🦱 Mikhail, a tourist bus driver:
"Every week, new limits come out of the blue. What do you do when you and your passengers have no fuel at night, or they don't give you fuel because of restrictions? Our typical fill-up is 300-400 litres.
1/ Ukraine's drone blockade of Crimea is tightening, with yet more ships hit in the Sea of Azov. Russia is reported to have halted shipping in the area in response. This is likely to have drastic effects not just on Crimea but on many Russian exports. ⬇️
2/ Reuters reports that Russia has suspended shipping on the Azov-Don Canal due to Ukrainian attacks, according to sources in Russia's grain export industry. Up to a quarter of Russia's wheat exports pass through this route. Wheat market prices have already risen 4% as a result.
3/ The Russian border services have also reportedly told shipping companies that passage through the Kerch Strait between the Sea of Azov and Black Sea has similarly been suspended. This effectively blocks ships from passing under the bridge to Crimea.
1/ The killers of a pro-Russian American are reportedly to be pardoned and sent to fight in Ukraine. 'Donbass Cowboy' Russell Bentley died under torture, reportedly after being electrocuted, and was subsequently blown into pieces in an attempt to cover up the killing. ⬇️
2/ Bentley was a communist activist and convicted marijuana smuggler from Texas who travelled to the occupied Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014 to fight in a pro-Russian militia. He married a local woman, settled in Donetsk city, and became a warblogger after being demobilised.
3/ He was abducted on 8 April 2024 by soldiers of the 5th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 'Donetsk People's Republic' after being suspected of spying on the aftermath of a Ukrainian artillery strike. The men took him to a nearby abandoned mine repurposed as a torture centre.
1/ An interview with Russian oligarch Alexey Melnichenko in The Economist is prompting strong interest among Russian commentators. Some see it as a valuable insight into elite thinking about Russia's future; others see it as a Western provocation. ⬇️
2/ Melnichenko sees five possible scenarios ahead for Russia:
– a "humiliated" Russia on the periphery of the West, which would turn to aggressive revanchism in the style of Weimar Germany;
– Russia falling into China's orbit and becoming a de facto satellite state of China;
3/ – a disintegrating Russia with struggles between regional leaders for resources and territory, and uncertain control over the nuclear arsenal;
– a "fortress Russia", closed to the outside world and in a permanently mobilised state of emergency;
1/ An ongoing 'massacre' of Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov is prompting apolexy and denunciations from Russian warbloggers. They ask what is going on, and some suspect a conspiracy: "incompetence of this level does not exist". ⬇️
2/ Contrary to some claims, these are not 'shadow fleet' tankers; they are instead small coastal and riverine vessels with capacities of a few thousand tons each. Russia appears to be using them to bring fuel into Crimea to break the Ukrainian drone blockade of the highways.
3/ However, Crimea's Black Sea ports are effectively unusable due to the constant threat of Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs). Crimea's principal Azov port, Kerch, is relatively small. Vessels have to queue up in the roadsteads outside the port, completely undefended.
1/ Heavy drones, which the Russians largely lack, are providing a significant advantage for Ukrainian infantry logistics on the battlefield. Meanwhile, says a Russian source, the Russian infantry face a "reverse evolution" of their equipment under harsh battlefield conditions. ⬇️
2/ Recently reported Ukrainian advances are likely to have been made possible by innovations in drone-supported logistics, with heavy drones now being used to transport large quantities of equipment, supplies, and weapons.
3/ Ukraine's heavy drones such as the Vampire drone bomber (called 'Baba Yaga' by the Russians) are a capability that Russia has consistently failed to replicate. Instead, Russian soldiers seek out downed Ukrainian heavy drones and repair them for reuse.