Putin is pretending he is crazy and will never stop.
He is a rational player. At some point he will stop. But first, Russia must feel five to ten times more pain than it does now, I told the WSJ. 1/
Ukraine struck Russia's largest refinery in Omsk, more than 1,500 miles from Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Russia left Omsk without air defence because it considered the refinery out of Ukraine's reach. Ukrainian drones hit its crude distillation unit. 2/
Moscow banned diesel exports after the Omsk strike. Ukraine has struck every major refinery in European Russia this year.
Gasoline production has fallen by at least 25%, triggering shortages, rationing and long queues. 3/
Russia imported gasoline for the first time in decades.
Kazakhstan deployed 59 border checkpoints to stop Russian drivers from taking fuel home. Diesel shortages are also emerging. 4/
Ukraine's FP-1 drones fly up to 2,100 miles.
Western Siberia's oil and gas fields, the Yamal LNG terminal, pipeline hubs, pumping stations and hundreds of military sites all fall within range. 5/
Long-range drones need more fuel and carry smaller warheads.
Refineries usually recover within days, weeks or months after drone strikes. Khodorkovsky says 500-kg missile warheads would change the war against Russia's energy sector. 6/
Ukraine hit dozens of small tankers carrying fuel to Crimea.
It also struck fuel depots, power infrastructure and military logistics. Much of Crimea spent days without electricity, while fuel became largely unavailable. 7X
Source: wsj.com/world/ukraines…
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