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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 10 • 9 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

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Putin is pretending he is crazy and will never stop.

He is a rational player. At some point he will stop. But first, Russia must feel five to ten times more pain than it does now, I told the WSJ. 1/

Ukraine struck Russia's largest refinery in Omsk, more than 1,500 miles from Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Russia left Omsk without air defence because it considered the refinery out of Ukraine's reach. Ukrainian drones hit its crude distillation unit. 2/

Moscow banned diesel exports after the Omsk strike. Ukraine has struck every major refinery in European Russia this year.

Gasoline production has fallen by at least 25%, triggering shortages, rationing and long queues. 3/

Russia imported gasoline for the first time in decades.

Kazakhstan deployed 59 border checkpoints to stop Russian drivers from taking fuel home. Diesel shortages are also emerging. 4/

Ukraine's FP-1 drones fly up to 2,100 miles.

Western Siberia's oil and gas fields, the Yamal LNG terminal, pipeline hubs, pumping stations and hundreds of military sites all fall within range. 5/

Long-range drones need more fuel and carry smaller warheads.

Refineries usually recover within days, weeks or months after drone strikes. Khodorkovsky says 500-kg missile warheads would change the war against Russia's energy sector. 6/

Ukraine hit dozens of small tankers carrying fuel to Crimea.

It also struck fuel depots, power infrastructure and military logistics. Much of Crimea spent days without electricity, while fuel became largely unavailable. 7X

Source: wsj.com/world/ukraines…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 10

For the first time since 2022, Ukraine has a coherent theory of victory. Instead of grinding down the Russian army at huge cost, Kyiv now destroys Russia's capacity to wage war.

It targets the revenue, fuel, and the supply lines that feed the front — Christian Caryl, FP. 1/

Former DM Zagorodnyuk calls this strategic neutralization. Render Russian forces ineffective by cutting their support, rather than storming their positions.

The proof of concept is the Black Sea Fleet. Naval drones drove it from Sevastopol without a single Ukrainian warship. 2/

The same logic now targets Crimea. Ukraine is severing the supply lines that feed Russian troops there with ammunition, fuel, and food, rather than storming the peninsula.

Serhii, a battalion commander in Sloviansk: I think we can cut Crimea off by the end of the summer. 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 10

Browder: Putin started a war because he stole so much money that he became afraid of his own people.

The easiest way to stop people turning against you is to create a foreign enemy. That is Machiavelli 101. 1/

Browder: If Putin used a nuclear weapon, he still would not win the war.

Ukraine is too large and too dispersed. China and the Global South would step away, and Putin would become a fully defined war criminal. 2/

Browder: This war is more likely to end like Korea than with a peace agreement.

Ukraine will keep making the war more painful for Russia until both sides stop attacking each other across a fortified front line. Nobody will negotiate peace. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 10

Browder: Ukrainians were never Russia's enemy.

The Kremlin manufactured that enemy. It called Ukrainians Nazis and fascists and accused them of things they never did. Crimea then sent Putin's approval ratings through the roof. 1/

Browder: Putin has been stealing since his days in the St. Petersburg mayor's office.

Putin and about a thousand people around him stole one trillion dollars from the Russian state before the war. 2X

Source:

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 10

Browder: Putin will never negotiate an end to the war.

Russia does not do diplomacy. Everything is win or lose. Nobody should negotiate with Putin because he will stop only when somebody stops him. 1/

Browder: Putin can't leave power. If he ends this war, he won't be in power anymore.

He needs the war to stay in power, and he needs power to stay alive. That is why negotiations aren't going to go anywhere. 2X

Source:

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 10

McFaul: Trump used to tell Zelenskyy: You don't have the cards. Zelenskyy answered: This is not a game, this is a war.

Now Trump sees that Zelenskyy has cards. The balance of power is changing, and that is why he may be more willing to help Ukraine. 1/

McFaul: The West's biggest mistake was worrying too much about what Putin thought.

That started long before the full-scale invasion. It was a mistake at the Bucharest NATO summit, during the war against Georgia and in the response that followed. 2/

McFaul: We failed to help democratic institutions take root in Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed. I supported that effort. We failed. I personally feel responsibility for that failure. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 10

McFaul: Putin is weak.

A strong leader gets information and makes new decisions based on it. Putin doesn't.

He gets information only from the FSB, SVR and the red folders they prepare for him. 1/

McFaul: A strong leader does not fear independent society or Alexei Navalny. Putin feared Navalny. He fears independent organizations. Fear is a sign of weakness, not strength. 2/

McFaul: Putin is an ideological leader. Many people believe in America he is a transactional person.

I disagree. He believes he has a historic mission. You cannot wage a war like this for years if you think rationally. 3X