For Putin, a ceasefire is a tool to win the war politically. Freeze the front, rebuild the army, break Ukraine's ties with Europe, then strike again.
He did exactly this after Minsk in 2014. — Michael Kimmage & Hanna Notte, Foreign Affairs.
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Putin's ceasefire playbook: call for elections in Ukraine, then use subversion to promote corruption narratives about Zelenskyy.
Offer endless circular negotiations. Encourage compliant Europeans to legitimize Russian-occupied territory.
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Putin would time his "peace" move to coincide with US midterm elections — boosting Trump-backed Republicans and diminishing prospects for a return to pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine policies in Washington.
A ceasefire lets Putin appear as a man of peace.
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Russia's political project for Ukraine has failed. Putin invaded a country of 35 million with 150,000 soldiers — expecting its government to collapse. Four years later, Ukraine is hostile to Russia for generations.
Putin has no clear path to military victory.
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Kimmage & Notte: "A sustainable end to the conflict will be possible only with a genuinely redefined calculus in Russia.
The proper response to Putin's studied intransigence is to help Ukraine attain long-term security and independence."
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