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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 14 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

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For Putin, a ceasefire is a tool to win the war politically. Freeze the front, rebuild the army, break Ukraine's ties with Europe, then strike again.

He did exactly this after Minsk in 2014. — Michael Kimmage & Hanna Notte, Foreign Affairs.

1/

Putin's ceasefire playbook: call for elections in Ukraine, then use subversion to promote corruption narratives about Zelenskyy.

Offer endless circular negotiations. Encourage compliant Europeans to legitimize Russian-occupied territory.

2/

Putin would time his "peace" move to coincide with US midterm elections — boosting Trump-backed Republicans and diminishing prospects for a return to pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine policies in Washington.

A ceasefire lets Putin appear as a man of peace.

3/

Russia's political project for Ukraine has failed. Putin invaded a country of 35 million with 150,000 soldiers — expecting its government to collapse. Four years later, Ukraine is hostile to Russia for generations.

Putin has no clear path to military victory.

4/

Kimmage & Notte: "A sustainable end to the conflict will be possible only with a genuinely redefined calculus in Russia.

The proper response to Putin's studied intransigence is to help Ukraine attain long-term security and independence."

5X

Source: foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin-w…

Thank you for reading this post!

Please also consider donating to support Ukrainian students who study during the war if this cause resonates with you.

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 14

Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Civilian cars burn over half of Russia’s gasoline.

To keep freight and emergency services running, Russia must cut civilian fuel use by half or two-thirds. Prices will do the cutting. Ukraine scored a political win.1/

Khodorkovsky: Fuel crisis may grow much worse if Ukrainian strikes continue at today’s scale.

Omsk refinery shows almost all major Russian refineries are within range. Putin seems absent, and Mishustin has vanished into the fog.

2/

Khodorkovsky: Putin does not understand the scale of the problem or how to fix it.

He gave a critical national crisis to Novyk, who lacks the power to fire Sechin, Miller, or the head of Russian Railways. Novyk cannot solve it. Putin looks absent.

3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 14

Kostyantynivka made the Kremlin's ruby-red stars and the glass on Lenin's mausoleum. Now Putin is grinding it into rubble to seize it.

The real prize is leverage over Trump, to argue holding Donbas is futile and Kyiv should concede — Christopher Miller, Financial Times. 1/

Kostyantynivka held about 70,000 people before the war. Around 2,000 remain, living without gas, water, electricity or medical help as food supplies run out.
They shelter in ruined blocks, and Russian drones have cut their movement to almost nothing. 2/

The city sits inside the kill zone, the drone-dominated strip of front where anything that moves is spotted and hit within minutes.
Ukraine now resupplies and evacuates by ground robots and on foot, with soldiers walking several miles in and out. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 14

Crimea was supposed to be Putin’s fortress: a military base, Black Sea launchpad, and imperial trophy.

Now its 2.5 million people face blackouts, water cuts, fuel shortages, dead cell service, broken transit, rising prices and a collapsed tourist season, — Politico. 1/

Ukraine is now targeting the routes that keep Russia’s forces in the south supplied. The aim is not just to hit Crimea, but to isolate it and weaken Moscow’s position across the southern front. 2/

Getting out has become harder too. Ukrainian drones have destroyed bridges and now patrol the land route through occupied southern Ukraine. In early June, more than 3,000 vehicles queued to leave via the Kerch bridge. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 13

Zelenskyy: We launched a new anti-ballistic program, Freya, to mass-produce anti-ballistic weapons, systems, and missiles.

Today, the anti-ballistic coalition held its first founding meeting.

1/

Zelenskyy: Ukraine has a missile, but it is only part of the system.

Together, in the next 12 months, we can build Freya: an affordable anti-ballistic system that closes the gap and gives Europe enough new protection.

2X

Source:

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 13

Volker: Zelenskyy has learned how to deal with Trump. This time [in Ankara] he was disciplined.

He didn't want to talk too much in public. He wanted their private meeting to have a positive tone. He joked a little.

That's the right way to handle things. 1/

Volker: Zelenskyy has an advantage over Russia in drones, counter-drones, electronic warfare, defense tech, innovation and logistics.

Many things that Putin is not able to do. Long-range strikes are hitting Russia's source of money: its oil and gas industry. 2/

Volker: Putin wants another shot at the winter.

He wants to keep fighting and try again to shut off Ukraine's electricity. Ukraine is in a stronger position than last winter, but Putin probably wants to try again. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jul 13

Ex-CIA officer Wiswesser: Under Putin, Russian intelligence can do no wrong without accountability.

Blow up a DHL plane in Lithuania, set a shopping center on fire in Warsaw or try to kill Rheinmetall's CEO in Germany. That makes it a formidable adversary. 1/

Wiswesser: Russian intelligence understands very little about how the United States works.

It projects its own corruption and political system onto the West. If Putin had understood the West, he should never have invaded Ukraine. 2X