Thread by @JohnWHuber

The “thousands of Clinton’s emails” story told by GEORGE PAPADOPOULOS, which is critical to “Trump/Russia collusion”, still doesn’t add up.

ALEXANDER DOWNER just blew a major hole in it.

And: I think Special Counsel Robert Mueller has known this for months too.

THREAD

In this thread I’m going to show you three NEW pieces of info:

1: First relevant interview with ALEXANDER DOWNER (H/T @ChuckRossDC)

2: A new analysis of @RepAdamSchiff Feb 2018 memo in light of that interview

3: A new, not yet reported Jan 2018 interview with JOSEPH MIFSUD

This will be controversial, so I’m going to keep this thread as factual as possible with clear references to source material that you can check

I want to lay out three possibilities for you....

POSSIBILITY 1: PAPADOPOULOS is being truthful, but very little else fits this

POSSIBILITY 2: He may be still committing perjury to the FBI & Special Counsel, violating his plea deal

POSSIBILITY 3: The Special Counsel is ALLOWING him to perjure himself, to keep “collusion” alive

What I intend to show is that one of the pillars of the Trump-Russia “collusion” theory is wobbly to the point of collapse – PAPADOPOULOS seems never to have mentioned “Clinton-related emails” or “dirt” to ANYONE before his Jan 27 2017 interview with the FBI

He didn’t make a “startling revelation” to ALEXANDER DOWNER in a “drunken” conversation in London, like the @nytimes announced to the world (a @benjaminwittes 'BOOM' moment)

And the person who is supposed to have told him about “emails” and ”dirt”– JOSEPH MIFSUD – denies he ever told him anything

Some quick background reading. I already did a thread a few weeks ago (

https://twitter.com/JohnWHuber/status/996595440173887493

) on how the PAPADOPOULOS story doesn’t add up. I'll be upgrading that in this one.

First, a recap:

PAPADOPOULOS told the FBI that MIFSUD told him on April 26 2016 that "Russia" had "thousands of emails" of Clinton

Then, after a “night of heavy drinking” in London, PAPADOPOULOS made a "revelation" to DOWNER about “dirt” & “emails” - which tipped off the FBI

The “emails” are meant to refer to those that were ultimately “hacked by Russia” and released to the public (those from the DNC and Clinton Campaign chairman John Podesta). MIFSUD & PAPADOPOULOS’ prior knowledge of these events is the core pillar in the "Russia collusion" theory

That's the current narrative, as leaked to the @nytimes

1. May 2016: a "night of heavy drinking"
2. A "startling revelation": Russia has "political dirt" on Clinton
3. DNC emails released Jul 22
4. Australians pass "tip" to FBI
5. FBI opens case Jul 31

nytimes.com/2017/12/30/us/…

A new discovery by @ChuckRoss contradicts much of that: ALEXANDER DOWNER's little noticed interview to “The Australian” last month. DOWNER is leaving his job in London and this is his first ever interview on the record about his chat with PAPADOPOULOS in that London Wine Bar

DOWNER’S STORY:

1. No “heavy drinking”: only one drink
2. Not a “startling revelation”: just “quite interesting”
3. The word “dirt” WAS NOT USED, “emails” WERE NOT MENTIONED

PAPADOPOULOS said Russia “might use material that they have on Clinton which [may or would] be damaging"

That Russia "may" release some "damaging material" on Clinton is still pre-knowledge of Russian hacking, right? Surely nobody would be speculating like that before that happ....

...Oh wait, maybe PAPADOPOULOS watched Fox News on May 9 2016, *the day before* he met Downer? 😯

Yes, that was Fox's Judge Napolitano on May 9 saying Russia had "20,000 hacked" Hillary emails & there was “a debate going on in the Kremlin” about "whether to release them". Lucky he didn't join the Trump campaign & say that in a London bar to DOWNER, or @FBI would've FISA'd him

Full video: insider.foxnews.com/2016/05/09/sta… (H/T to @Zaggs)

Those high profile comments were made the day before PAPADOPOULOS met with DOWNER, and are far from the only example. Such speculation was rife at the time, as the FBI's Clinton email investigation (Mid Year Exam) was ongoing

While the @nytimes itself was furiously selling the PAPADOPOULOS origin story, even it had to admit that "what PAPADOPOULOS said that night is unclear", and DOWNER "may have been fishing" for information too. So there were already some holes if you were reading between the lines

That’s not the only thing @ChuckRossDC found either. When he broke the spying story of STEFAN HALPER back in March, he noted that PAPDOPOULOS denied knowing anything about Russian and emails to HALPER and his assistant "AZRA TURK". The @nytimes has validated Ross's reporting too

In fact, PAPADOPOULOS not only didn’t say anything to spy HALPER – he never said anything about Russia & emails to ANYONE

Until he said it to two FBI agents, over 9 months later, on Jan 27 2017

And I really mean ANYONE - look at this list of meetings PAPADOPOULOS had throughout 2016, both before & after the DNC emails were released on Jul 22. Not a word. Nobody has come forward with a story even close to DOWNER’s.

This mystery goes beyond "meetings" – the @FBI had a search warrant for all of PAPADOPOULOS' comms (including the Facebook account he'd tried to delete after his second FBI interview). They had EVERYTHING.

Yet, PAPADOPOULOS didn’t create ANY electronic communication about these "emails" he'd supposedly been told about & never used the word "dirt", with anyone. Not once. NOTHING. Nada. Zippo..

1 million+ documents have been turned over to investigators, hundreds of witnesses have testified to Congress & dozens to Special Counsel Mueller's Grand Jury

"No evidence has come to light indicating...Papadopoulos told anyone on the campaign"

@nytimes: mobile.nytimes.com/2018/05/15/us/…

What gives? It gets weirder: on Jun 24 2016 PAPADOPOULOS asked the Trump campaign for a paid role & reimbursement for past/future travel. Trump officials rejected these requests as he wasn’t “play[ing] nice with the team”, off "on his own" trying to arrange a Putin/Trump meeting

Just weeks later (Jul 27) @realDonaldTrump says at a press conference:

“Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30K [Clinton] emails that are missing”.

PAPADOPOULOS should KNOW Russia has "emails", from an “agent” who told him, MIFSUD!

But he does nothing!

PAPADOPOULOS is trying to make a name for himself with the campaign, spending most of his time on a Trump/Putin meeting, has been spurred by Trump officials for recognition & cash, AND, *according to him*, he's sitting on MOTHER OF ALL BOMBSHELLS. He does nothing. Nothing!

July 27 is his chance to shine: “Hey boss, I know where to find those emails!”. PAPADOPOULOS never so much as fires off an email to anyone on the campaign. Talk about passing up a chance to become the next Secretary of State, right kids?

I've gotta say, I found this very odd. So I decided to go back to the @RepAdamSchiff memo from Feb 2018, which was trying to sell the story that PAPADOPOULOS was the true origin of the Russia investigation. This'll have the best case for collusion & this story, right?

I think a real close look at the @RepAdamSchiff memo got lost in the "dueling memo" controversy with @DevinNunes.

But: hiding in plain sight all along is the confirmation - PAPADOPOULOS didn’t tell DOWNER about emails, this came from his FBI interviews & ONLY those interviews!

Here's the key paragraph:

•Redaction 1: DOWNER

•Redaction 2: LONDON

•“Late April 2016”: Apr 26 2016 meeting with MIFSUD

•Redaction 3: What MIFSUD supposedly told PAPADOPOULOS on Apr 26 (supported by Footnote 4)

•Footnote 5: What investigators would "later learn" <-🚨

Redaction 3/Footnote 4 describes what PAPADOPOULOS told DOWNER in the Wine Bar on May 10. Both are totally redacted. BUT, the content can be inferred

Look again closely at the paragraph attached to Footnote 5:

“We would LATER LEARN” more about "THE INFORMATION", from “PAPADOPOULOS’ PLEA”

This could NOT have been said to DOWNER. You can’t “learn” something “later” if you already knew it, solely from the DOWNER “tip” itself!

Footnote 5 says the July 2017 PAPADOPOULOS plea with the FBI provided additional “texture”, “clarifying” the tip from DOWNER.

Okay, why do you need any "texture" or "clarification" if PAPADOPOULOS already told DOWNER about emails?

Simple: you don’t!

So amazingly, the usual villain of the piece @RepAdamSchiff actually corroborates what DOWNER recently revealed to The Australian. PAPADOPOULOS didn’t say anything *specific* at that Wine Bar which proves he or MIFSUD had any prior knowledge of hacking, emails, or even “dirt”

JOSEPH MIFSUD, the person who is supposed to have told PAPADOPOULOS about “emails” & “dirt” also denies he ever told him anything like this. On Nov 1 2017 (after the PAPADOPOULOS story went public) he was quoted in La Repubblica, calling it "nonsense": repubblica.it/esteri/2017/11…

MIFSUD also “vehemently” denied this again even more categorically in an interview on Jan 13 2018 with two of his former colleagues in Rome (this is taken from the draft of self published book circulating amongst the media, which attacks the Trump-Russia collusion narrative)

You might say: of course a Russian spy would deny it. Okay, but these denials from MIFSUD are *after* he was interviewed by the FBI in Feb 2017 in Washington D.C. If MIFSUD repeated these same denials to the FBI, why isn’t he indicted for lying?

The FBI also interviewed one of those book authors in Oct 2017 who interviewed MIFSUD. This is a person able to get in contact with this “Russian spy” & knows his location. The FBI didn’t ask him a single question about MIFSUD. Not even "How's the Professor doing?" Huh?

So let’s quickly recap: it’s possible NOBODY told PAPADOPOULOS about Clinton emails, so he didn’t (in fact, couldn’t) tell anyone else either. So what the heck is going on? Why's he saying that to the FBI?

Factually, all anyone has to support those Jan 27 2017 claims to two FBI agents, is PAPADOPOULOS speculating to DOWNER that Russia “might” use “damaging material” (which was not a "revelation" to anyone watching Fox News). DOWNER “may” have been “fishing” for info at the time too

Also, everyone has assumed ever since the “Statement of the Offence” was unsealed by Mueller's team in Oct 2017, is that any of PAPADOPOULOS’s statements not contradicted by Mueller are true & there’s no way Mueller’s team would submit false info to Federal Court

But the problem is that NONE of PAPADOPOULOS’ *actions* IN THE PAST, match his supposedly now honest *statements* made the FBI IN THE PRESENT

That's the dilemma with making up something in the present. You can't go back & change the past. Whatever PAPADOPOULOS now says, he can't invent past actions he plausibly should have taken. I can confess to robbing a bank months ago - I can't invent a robbery that didn't happen

So let’s look at actions, NOT statements (H/T PAPADOPOULOS' new wife)

If MIFSUD really told PAPADOPOULOS about “thousands of [Clinton] emails” on Apr 26 2016, he never ACTED like he found out that information back then.

And nobody else ACTED like they should have either.

First, why did PAPADOPOULOS deny knowing anything about “Russia” and “emails” to STEFAN HALPER and “AZRA TURK”, in Sep 2016, when he freely talked to DOWNER?

Was he circumspect as he just met HALPER? He’d only just met DOWNER too

Was he drunk? No, and he was also drinking with HALPER too

Trusted DOWNER more? HALPER was going to pay him $3,000 & had just paid for a luxury hotel. DOWNER chewed him out for comments about David Cameron

Second, MIFSUD has to act strangely as well. After PAPADOPOULOS ignores his bombshell about Clinton emails, he just drops it? Never tries to give the same information to another member of the Trump team?

Presumably if MIFSUD was really a Russian agent or “cutout”, his handlers in the Kremlin would want him to complete his mission. He tried with PAPADOPOULOS, then just gave up? Then the "emails" were somehow released anyway?

Third, why has the FBI not indicted MIFSUD? Why did it release him after that interview in Washington D.C. in Feb 2017 (AFTER the first interview of PAPADOPOULOS where he “confessed” to MIFSUD’s implied role as Russian spy or cutout)?

Oh, and speaking of MIFSUD, why does this “Russian agent/cut-out” Maltese phantom have so many connections to Western Intelligence agencies, politicians and diplomats? realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2018/… (H/T @LeeSmithDC)

None of that makes sense. And all kinds of other things don’t either. Hang in there, I'm just getting started here.

Fourth, why after opening “Crossfire Hurricane” (probably a hidden reference to CHRIS STEELE: thefederalist.com/2018/05/25/cod…), did the FBI not seek a secret FISA warrant on PAPADOPOULOS? Or interview him? He knows a “Russian agent” and about THE emails! This is the heart of the case!

Fifth, why did FBI/CIA spy STEFAN HALPER set up a meeting with CARTER PAGE in mid-July, BEFORE the FBI says it was even aware of the “tip” from the Australians about the DOWNER meeting in London? dailycaller.com/2018/03/25/geo…

EVERYONE's actions don’t make sense & they have to for PAPADOPOULOS’s story to be true. So what happened here? Did the FBI force him to say this? Seems unlikely. And if they didn't, why did he say it & “confess” in his very first voluntary interview?

Note: I concede it's possible there could be law enforcement or prosecutorial misconduct. PAPADOPOULOS’ interviews were in Jan/Feb 2017 where some theorize that @GenFlynn may also have been jammed up at the same time. And ALL the SC lawyers in this specific case are dem partisans

But, there is a big problem with that too. Something that has gone largely unnoticed: the FBI have PAPADOPOULOS *on tape*, even his very first voluntary interview, where he mentions “thousands of emails”. This is long before Mueller's democrat prosecutors are even involved at all

So none of our three possibilities at the outset of this thread neatly fit the evidence:

❌ 1. PAPADOPOULOS is telling the truth
❌ 2. He’s still lying to the FBI/Mueller even with a plea deal
❌ 3. Mueller is allowing him to perjure himself, to keep collusion alive

Okay: is there a FOURTH possibility?

4. Did it simply suit Mueller’s team not to specifically contradict PAPADOPOULOS’ statements about Clinton emails in the “Statement of the Offence”?

Is everyone just assuming if a statement isn’t contradicted, it is in fact, true?

In this theory: In his FBI interview where PAPADOPOULOS was lying about various other things, when asked if/how he knew about treason/hacking of emails, he tagged MIFSUD (who he didn't know) as a de facto spy to explain his baseless & probably unauthorized speculation to DOWNER

And if Muller took that approach, it keeps “collusion” alive - necessary for the investigation to continue - but it doesn’t provide false information to the court AND it lets the media/democrats run off wildly speculating. He's under no obligation to reveal all he knows either

There is a very brief hint of that possibility in the charging documents.

Mueller filed on Oct 5 2017. We didn't know then, but we now know this is:

• 9 months after interviewing MIFSUD
• 4 months after interviewing PAPADOPOULOS

So if MIFSUD really told PAPADOPOULOS about “thousands of emails” – at this point it should be locked down tight.

So why does Mueller not definitively say that? Only that this is “as defendant PAPADOPOULOS later described to the FBI”?

If MIFSUD confirmed PAPADOPOULOS’ story when interviewed: presumably this would be more definitive - "MIFSUD SAID THIS TO PAPADOPOULOS"

And if MIFSUD denied it: again, why isn’t he indicted, arrested or extradited?

Mueller has now kicked off the process towards sentencing PAPADOPOULOS by ordering a “pre-sentence investigation report”. Legally, this indicates his “cooperation” & usefulness to the investigation is nearly over: thehill.com/blogs/blog-bri…

A long time Democratic US Prosecutor who is running for Illinois Attorney General in Nov 2018 speculates this act by Mueller could mean PAPADOPOULOS has “issues [as] a witness” or info given to Mueller “didn’t pan out” or was “untrue”. Fancy that! (H/T @renato_mariotti)

And this speculation seems correct, given what we know from the FBI’s own charging documents & the reports from Congressional investigators:

*PAPADOPOULOS isn’t the most reliable witness*

From this thread, you also know NOBODY backs his story up with their actions

SUMMARY 1/2

The only people we know for sure PAPADOPOULOS told about Russia having “thousands of emails” are the FBI & SC Mueller

The only proof MIFSUD is a Russian cutout is that PAPADOPOULOS implies it

Almost nothing factual backs this up, not DOWNER, not even @RepAdamSchiff

SUMMARY 2/2

But: MIFSUD has to be a Russian agent or cutout AND he has to be the one to tell PAPADOPOULOS about the hacked emails before they are released

Otherwise, if those aren't true? “Trump/Russia Collusion” is over

The real story of PAPADOPOULOS' is that important

/ENDS

N.B. I specifically didn’t speculate in this thread about a 5th possibility: that PAPADOPOULOS may be an FBI “informant”

BEFORE his FBI interviews, I don’t find this credible because he made no attempt to entrap Trump officials with his “thousands of emails” story

But AFTER...?

N.B 2: I’m willing to concede we don’t know what Mueller knows & additional information he is keeping hidden "could" make this story make sense, though I find it unlikely. No new information will explain the lack of actions shown here. But if you've got better ideas, let me know!

N.B 3: I strongly recommend this piece by @AndrewCMcCarthy who asks similar questions, though with slightly different conclusions:

https://twitter.com/andrewcmccarthy/status/1002860688560349184?s=21

N.B 4 @ProfMJCleveland has a good piece out expanding on the same points related to the @RepAdamSchiff memo:

https://twitter.com/profmjcleveland/status/1004328661485486080?s=21