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Sep 12, 2018 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
X : Why is Gartner rubbish?
Me : They're not. They make some howlers like bimodal and I find MQs dubious but some of their opinion is spot on. I trust them more than I would Mckinsey.
X : That's not much praise, you hate McKinsey.
Me : I don't hate them, I just don't trust them.
Everyone has their own internal view on who they trust built on their own experience. For me personally, Gartner is more middle of the road with tech whilst Mckinsey is somewhat south of Mystic Meg's weekend blathering of crystal meth alchemical horoscopes.
i.e. I don't personally trust Mckinsey. That doesn't mean they're right or wrong, it just means I'm extremely skeptical.

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More from @swardley

Simon Wardley Profile picture
Feb 18
Long power outage due to storm, cut consumption to about 100W ... battery holding up well. Hoping for some sunlight tomorrow morning, so I can fully charge up the house.
Very little sunlight ... down to my last 5.2 kWh ... which I can make last at least 2 days. Hopefully power will be back up in the next few hours. Already charging neighbours phones / set up community fridge etc.
Looks like power will be out until tomorrow night. The Tesla has stood up well so far, though it did seem to stop charging off sunlight for some reason. Hopefully we will get some Sun tomorrow.
Read 7 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Feb 17
X : Thoughts on rare earths in batteries?
Me : Hmmm ... last time I checked, Tesla used NCA, a Lithium-ion battery with a high nickel anode 80% Ni, 15% Co, 5% Al ... but they're not rare earth. Those REs tend to used in other aspects of EV tech i.e. magnets etc. why?
X : Supply chain?
Me : China dominates Lithium, Nickel and even RE supply chains. The US has been expanding its RE mines. You'd have to dig into it (excuse the pun). USGS is a good place to start - usgs.gov/centers/nation…
X : How large are the reserves?
Me : Lithium, Nickel? Huge. The ocean is estimated to have over 200 billion tonnes of Lithium but as with all things ... the tricky bit is extraction. Is this a limit of EV thing you're after? The main constraints are extraction and production ...
Read 16 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Feb 15
X: Do you think it's possible to create perfect simulation of life, the universe and everything?
Me : Nope.
X : Why?
Me : First problem is uncertainty principles, life is littered with them. Assuming we get beyond that, the second problem is information ...
... if we assume information is finite then we can't create a single system that contains all the information that is out there because information is finite and any simulation must also contain a copy of the simulation which itself must contain a copy of the .... ad infinitum.
X : If information is infinite?
Me : Then we can create a simulation which contains a simulation which contains ... ad infinitum. But that's a bad thing.
X : Why?
Me : An infinite number of perfect simulations and one reality. What's the odds on you being real?
X : ?
Me : Zero.
Read 4 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Feb 14
It is very kind that people would invite me to their events, that is deeply appreciated. However, I'm only doing virtual events ... this isn't a covid thing, it's an environmental cost and the need for us all to adapt to a more virtual world thing. The past is the past. Image
X : Are you not meeting with people physically?
Me : Of course I am. Family, friends, local activities (shooting, swimming, sailing, restaurrants etc) but I'm not going to events physically when these can easily be done online. I'm certainly not travelling to an event ...
... my physical world has shrunk to the village and the surrounding environment. My virtual world ... well, that's global. I speak every day with people from all over the world.
Read 6 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Feb 14
Of course, this in itself isn't without consequence hence Zelensky asking for evidence, pleading for calm as he tries to reduce the damage being done to Ukraine's economy ->
As Zelensky said “The best friend of our enemies is panic in our country. And all this information is just provoking panic and can’t help us."
X : Two front theory?
Me : Mostly peddled in US to try and convince those who have doubts over action in Ukraine that there is a wider agenda.
X : Role of China?
Me : So far, it talks of "legitimate" concerns over NATO expansion that must be "taken seriously and addressed" ...
Read 16 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Feb 12
The problem with the "crypto/web3 is the western version of giving power back to the people" is that it will create far higher levels of inequality (a feudal nightmare) and even undermine our entire system - blog.gardeviance.org/2013/11/a-spoi… - however, it's going to get much worse ...
... as China starts to lead the world in technology and economic power combined with much higher levels of equality ... the very idea of the success caused by our values in our Western collectives will be undermined creating a downward spiral ...
... we are so fscked because people have been playing games of soveriegnty that they don't understand (especially in technical fields) and frankly they are out of their depth -swardley.medium.com/mountains-matt…
Read 9 tweets

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