Thread by @swardley

Of course, this in itself isn't without consequence hence Zelensky asking for evidence, pleading for calm as he tries to reduce the damage being done to Ukraine's economy ->

https://twitter.com/DenisMacShane/status/1493154139391594497

As Zelensky said “The best friend of our enemies is panic in our country. And all this information is just provoking panic and can’t help us."

X : Two front theory?
Me : Mostly peddled in US to try and convince those who have doubts over action in Ukraine that there is a wider agenda.
X : Role of China?
Me : So far, it talks of "legitimate" concerns over NATO expansion that must be "taken seriously and addressed" ...

... however, China is taking the position of peacemaker with a narrative on "resolve any differences through diplomacy" and emphasis placed on "Stop hyping up the tension".

It shouldn't be forgotten that China has significant economic, strategic and financial interests in Ukraine from agriculture to construction to military.

X : What's going to happen?
Me : No idea. Many paths possible.
X : Guess?
Me : China acts as the mediator for a solution between Russia and Ukraine. Russia benefits from closer defense ties with China, gets to portray the West as expansionist warmongers ...

... Ukraine benefits from further investment from China, a peaceful solution that maintains autonomy. China benefits from economic expansion in Ukraine i.e. the US can't play the Motor Sich card again. The West ends up with egg on its face and the EU is diminished.

X : Will that happen?
Me : As I said, no idea. But China doesn't want a war in the middle of its Olympics ... it wants to be visibly seen as the new global peacemaker / policeman.

"So far, he’s used the crisis to:" - astute by @TomTugendhat ... yep, Putin has already won this act, we've been outplayed and we need to up our game (and no, I don't mean threats of kinetic warfare. This is not about that) ->

https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1492830614730457088

A further note to my Conservative friends ... if you ever do replace Boris, then try having someone like @TomTugendhat in charge.

"the day western war propaganda failed" ... noteworthy, needs confirming -

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1493506503340445697

Whilst in the UK, Europe on 'brink of war', warns Liz Truss -
mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…

X : Why do you think Putin has won this act?
Me : I think (aka I don't know, this is from my perspective on the situation) that he has achieved his goals but his goals are not what many commentators think they are -

https://twitter.com/swardley/status/1492104862783442948

X : No conflict?
Me : In competition there are always elements of collaboration, co-operation and conflict ... but I don't see how turning this situation to full scale conflict benefits Russia. Doesn't mean it won't happen but no-one has explained to me the reasons why it should.

X : Did you see "Why Russia Wants Ukraine" - by Peter Zeihan?
Me : Unfortunately and it's too easy for these people to go "Well, Russia is pulling back ... for now" i.e. "war" they state prediction is right, "no war" they claim prediction will be right.

On a completely different scale we've had over five years on this with Brexit ... "the economy will collapse immediately" ... data says it isn't ... "the economy will collapse soon" ... data says it isn't ... "the economy will collapse" ... etc etc.

The problem is that at some point the economy will collapse, at some point wars will occur, at some point ... the art of prediction is not just saying what will happen but more importantly when and why.