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Trevor Scott

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24 Oct 18, 6 tweets, 2 min read

"Facebook Spend Grows 25% Y/Y, Driven Mostly by Higher Pricing, Excluding Instagram." - Merkle Q3 Report
$FB

"Instagram Spend Up 61% Y/Y as Increases in Inventory Drive Growth."

@compound100x

Expenses are a wild card for Q3, but it doesn't appear that there is a major revenue problem. This data does not include new advertisers and is North America based. Global is growing faster.
Q3 estimates:
Rev +33.3%
EBITDA +17.7%
Thanks @compound100x
merkleinc.com/thought-leader…

Prediction: Facebook will announce it's breaking out Instagram from its consolidated financials by the end of 2019.
$FB

For clarity: This data is from FactSet, not Merkle. Again, it is not fully comparable. Eg. Don't use this to play quarterly earnings or you could be severely disappointed.

To be clear, I have no idea if $FB disappoints this quarter. The street is focused on core Facebook while the growth is at Instagram and the messengers, which is still not properly disclosed. When combined with the big jump in expenses, it could easily miss expectations. #10years

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@maffei_fake

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Nanigans Q3 Report is out:
"Average Facebook ad spending was up 24% QoQ and 71% YoY in Q3. This growth is a clear sign that Facebook remains a valuable channel
for online retailers to reach new and existing shoppers to generate incremental sales."
$FB

"With the ability to reach people across Facebook, Instagram, Audience Network and Messenger, advertisers are increasingly turning to automatic ad placement. US advertisers using Nanigans leveraged automatic placement 54% of the time—a significant 69% increase in usage over Q2."

"In Q3 2018, global Facebook ad click-through rates dipped 24% compared to Q2. At 1.22%, this represents a 20% year-over-year decline. Last year, average CTRs saw a similar drop in Q3 before rebounding during the competitive holiday advertising season of Q4."

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