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Henrique Moraes Profile picture
@choermoraes
Nov 27, 2018 • 5 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
In the 2nd post of this series @lawfare, we examine how the realms of economics & security are converging again in the #Geoeconomic World Order @AntheaERoberts @VictorAFerguson
Geoeconomics: The Variable Relationship Between Economics and Security lawfareblog.com/geoeconomics-v…
What could have remained a sublimated economic rivalry between the United States & China has now mutated into an explicit geopolitical contest that is playing out in significant measure in the int'l economic law sphere. @OliverStuenkel @howserob @rdmcdougall @ricbdc @ElenLazarou
Under the Int’l Economic World Order, trade & investment treaties involved a relative separation between economic & security realms. Claims of #depoliticization @laugepoulsen @JoostPauwely This rationale is challenged by the Geoeconomic World Order.
Moving from a more “economic mindset” to a more “security mindset” implies shifting appeals for econ efficiency to calls for increased self-sufficiency, self-reliance and resilience. @AmritaNarlikar @ax_berger
Interdependence may increase economic efficiency, but, as examined by @ANewman_forward @henryfarrell, it can also generate strategic vulnerabilities. This rationale stands behind the uptick in CFIUS activity in the US. @markhleonard

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More from @choermoraes

Henrique Moraes Profile picture
Sep 30, 2020
I have a new paper w/ @MWigell : “The emergence of Strategic Capitalism - Geoeconomics, Corporate Statecraft & the repurposing of the global economy”. We take a fresh look at states & markets to describe this shift
@FIIA_fi @LeuvenGGS

fiia.fi/en/publication… [thread1/10]
States are actively deploying geoeconomic measures. Firms try to preserve businesses by a nuanced set of reactions that both constrain & stimulate geoeconomic policies.

This dynamic is making capitalism more state-led and strategic 2/

@gideonrachman
ft.com/content/9000d2…
Geoeconomics now extends beyond US-China relations; affects more than tech sector & is not circumscribed to nat'l sec claims. An increasing number of assets become "strategic" + origin of mkt actors affect their bizz prospects 3/ @markhleonard @leemakiyama @JPKleinhans @TGehrke_
Read 10 tweets
Henrique Moraes Profile picture
May 4, 2020
“In this pandemic, the mask reveals far more than it hides. It exposes the world’s political and economic relations for what they are: vectors of self-interest that ordinarily lie obscured under glib talk of globalisation and openness. ” gu.com/p/dmce4/stw
"Masks are in short supply not because they’re difficult to produce, but because the meltblown industry is used to stable, long-term demand. It churns out just enough for its customers and no more."
"Until now, countries didn’t consider meltblown a strategic commodity, so during the past three decades, much of its production has migrated from the west to (...) Asia. (...) just five or 10 remaining manufacturers in the US (...) China produces close to half of all (...)".
Read 7 tweets
Henrique Moraes Profile picture
Apr 29, 2020
I have a post @Global_Policy. Post-COVID health regulators could learn from "macroprudential" finance policies addressing systemic risks. Should health governance address systemic-risks such as the supply chains of resources like PPE? globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/29/04/202… Image
Just as the collapse of "too big to fail” banks magnify the impact of vulnerabilities in the fin'l system, are there health challenges which bring to light systemic failures, eg bottlenecks in supply chains of med equipment? Are there diseases "too big to heal"? @RanaForoohar
Increased attention by health regulators to systemic risks would, similarly to the experience in fin'l governance, be a move in the direction of resilience of the system. @AntheaERoberts @geoffreygertz @ANewman_forward @claudiachamas @BenoniBelli @osguinea
Read 4 tweets
Henrique Moraes Profile picture
Apr 7, 2020
Many interesting points in this report @MikaAaltola @FIIA_fi on political transformation wrought by COVID19. Among them the fact that "China's status and legitimacy are increasingly in doubt, especially in the West" [1/4]
In many ways, COVID19 is the "reset" button that will redefine the relative positions of many global actors, including China.

Where each will land will ultimately depend on how they fare in tackling the virus fallout--something that is far from clear now [2/4] Image
A likely consequence of the geopolitical rearrangement following COVID19 is the acceleration in the trend of fragmentation/stagnation of global regimes & an increased shift to "managed interdependence", as countries become more geoeconomic [3/4]

ejiltalk.org/the-turn-to-ma…
Read 4 tweets
Henrique Moraes Profile picture
Apr 4, 2020
I believe we lack elements to spell out what global politics will look like in the aftermath of COVID. The jury is still out on most elements that will shape the global order going forward, not least China’s role in it. 1/5
Countries will draw lessons from relying on China for a number of goods, eg medical products. As resilience takes precedence over efficiency, decoupling might extend beyond US-China relations. This could intensify trend to curb Chinese FDI 2/5
barrons.com/articles/how-g…
A lot will of course depend on how countries fare against COVID. Some countries that have until recently attempted to accommodate China might revert to pushback if they manage this crisis decently 3/5

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
Read 5 tweets
Henrique Moraes Profile picture
Mar 21, 2020
As Italy becomes the epicenter of the most dramatic developments re #Covid_19 it's worth watching terms & direction of Italian debate on role of China in managing the disease. Might be an indication of how China will be viewed in aftermath @muyixiao @gideonrachman @RushDoshi
progettoprometeo.it/13-febbraio-la…
lastampa.it/cronaca/2020/0…
Read 4 tweets

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