Thread by @DmitryOpines

1/ Dear UK, late last night Shankar Singham published an article in The Sun, which I understand to be one of your premier academic journals.

Since he found time in between negotiator cosplay and Oklahoma FTA talks to write it, let's have a read!

thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/80…

2/ "NO DEAL? NO WORRIES"

Strong start. Apparently the UK has nothing to worry about, provided it is 'well prepared' in some nebulous way.

Spoiler: At no point in this article does he indicate what those preparations have to look like.

Some worries bro. Some worries.

3/ Good news everyone, a link offering incontrovertible proof "No-Deal would be more bearable and beneficial than" we doom-whisperers mutter from noted trade expert...

<checks notes>

... Sun Columnist and former political editor Trevor Kavanagh.

4/ "Treasury analysis assume we will change nothing"

The last Treasury analysis assumed rollover of every single EU FTA and negotiation of 15 additional FTAs all more ambitious than NAFTA.

P.S Link is about Gov. advice warning UK citizens not to book holidays for March. Yay?

5/ So much to unpack here.

First sentence is meaningless drivel which amounts to "we should talk to the EU about a trade deal" but with more of the kind of words trade nerds suddenly discovered impress attractive people at parties in 2018.

6/ It is certainly in the EU's interest to secure market access into the UK, including on agriculture.

Good point Mr Singham, let's hope you don't undermine it like 3 paragraphs down when you declare the UK's mitigation strategy for No-Deal will be eliminating ag tariffs.

7/ "If the EU doesn't play ball, we won't pay what we owe," he says before suggesting the EU should fear screwing up THEIR relationships with the finance sector.

Masterful.

8/ Ah yes, if the UK just 'shows strength' by demonstrating it is prepared to screw over the Irish border with a No-Deal, the EU will be far more likely to drop the backstop they wanted to prevent that scenario.

Had Sun-Tzu but had the opportunity to study at Mr Singham's feet.

9/ So the key to keeping pharmacy shelves stocked is:

A. Unilaterally recognizing EU regulations (taking back control!)
B. Unspecified 'customs upgrading' in the next 3 months (good luck).
C. Pretending the problem is somehow tariff related (it's not).

10/ This is great.

"Project fear says the supply chain could be disrupted."
"The government looked at the issue and said yes, holy shit it could be, start stockpiling!"
"But HA! Even stockpiling won't work!"

... and then he moves on to planes.

I'm not reassured you guys.

11/ First, the primary issue isn't landing rights it's certifications for planes, pilots and parts.

Second, upon leaving the EU with No-Deal the UK will no longer be a member of EASA so literally everything else he says is predicated on a falsehood.

12/ For the record, I believe the issue of planes is probably fixable but not through blind optimism and not through the EU offering UK citizens visa free short term non-business entry... a completely unrelated question.

13/ Opening statement on ports is more or less accurate.

I'm assuming he stopped there and didn't proceed to spiral into nonsense but just in case let me scroll down and...

14/ Motherfudger.

The issue isn't a lack of agreement between customs agencies. The issue is no longer being in the Single Market, and Calais - Dover becoming an export movement.

No one thought the French would DELIBERATELY slow Calais.

Manual customs checks aren't the issue.

15/ The 2015 French Ferry strike cost the UK 250m pounds per day. Link: telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews…

I'm not super comforted by the fact the UK survived it.

16/ Skipping this section because he doesn't say anything of substance.

tl;dr: They might, but some of these could be addressed in side deals short of a fully fledged FTA.

This is true, though more of the No-Deal But Some Deals thing which some take issue with.

17/ So the EU is on the ropes because they won't want to face the tariffs the UK won't be applying. Well played.

Also, that first link goes to an article about grocers in the UK panicking because they don't have space to stockpile food. Sleep well, kids.

18/ He ends here, by basically saying that if you lose your farm following this unilateral liberalization it's because you're a bad farmer.

For what it's worth, I support agricultural liberalization too. I just try not to be such a massive toolbelt about it.

19/ And that's it. He ends there.

If the UK revamps its custom system, lowers agricultural tariffs while simultaneously keeping them high, does a bunch of side deals and invents teleportation then a smooth No-Deal will provide all the leverage it needs to avoid No-Deal.