1/ I don't want to pick on Mr Whyte or single out @iealondon, but this tweet is a good springboard to talking about the role of economic thinktanks in the modern media landscape.
https://twitter.com/_JamieWhyte/status/1078383713673719809
2/ No matter the honorable intentions and professionalism of thinktank staff, the biggest impact a thinktank has on a *HIGHLY POLITICIZED debate is not in shaping policy or academic discourse, but in shaping headlines and talking points.
* Not all policy is.
* Not all policy is.
3/ This is an Express article on the cost of No Deal, quoting an OECD report 👇🏼.
It doesn't link the report or even the OECD website, but that doesn't matter because hundreds of thousands of Express readers will see the headline.
express.co.uk/news/politics/…
It doesn't link the report or even the OECD website, but that doesn't matter because hundreds of thousands of Express readers will see the headline.
express.co.uk/news/politics/…
4/ Who remembers this triumph?
The Economist for Free Trade report was universally derided by half the numerate people on earth, but they didn't care.
The goal was this event, the headlines which came with it, and for the people in that photo to be able to quote 'analysis'.
The Economist for Free Trade report was universally derided by half the numerate people on earth, but they didn't care.
The goal was this event, the headlines which came with it, and for the people in that photo to be able to quote 'analysis'.
5/ Economic modelling and analysis requires assumptions to work.
Remember HMT modeling Brexit assuming 40 rolled over FTA's and 15 new FTA's, all with complete two way tariff elimination?
Some BIG assumptions.
Remember HMT modeling Brexit assuming 40 rolled over FTA's and 15 new FTA's, all with complete two way tariff elimination?
Some BIG assumptions.
6/ Change the assumption, you change the results. Change the results, you change the headline.
Econ and trade nerds on twitter might dig through the bowels of your paper and rip into you but who will read that slap fight?
"Economists disagree, news at 11"
Econ and trade nerds on twitter might dig through the bowels of your paper and rip into you but who will read that slap fight?
"Economists disagree, news at 11"
7/ As someone who until very recently worked at a thinktank, I fully appreciate how frustrating it must be for professionals to have their work dismissed unread because of something like opaque financing or preconceptions of bias.
However...
However...
8/ However motivations do matter, and "just argue it on the merits" is not a satisfactory counterpoint.
A thinktank in a politicized debate CAN shape their results to fit a narrative. Once the headlines are out there, no amount of academic scrutiny can pull them back.
A thinktank in a politicized debate CAN shape their results to fit a narrative. Once the headlines are out there, no amount of academic scrutiny can pull them back.
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