Some of my notes on the likely disruption coming in 2020 in mining sector in India.
This will be due to the lease of several mines expiring under (1) MMDR Amendment Act 2015 (2) State Govt and Indian Bureau of Mines (IBM)
Let's see each one of them and likely impact. (1/n)
MMDR Amendment Act 2015, there will be 334 leases (49 working and 285 non-working) of iron ore/Manganese/Chromite mines to be expiring in 2020.
The key in this list of 334 mines is 31 mines from Odisha and 50 from Karnataka. (2/n)
The working mines of Odisha and Karanata contribute approx 28% of iron ore capacity, 15% of Manganese and 50% capacity of Chromite of India. These may cause major disruption in the supply of iron-ore in 2020. (3/n)
Beside mines under MMDR, State Governments and Indian Bureau of Mines (IBM) have 104 mines (49 working mines) to be put on auction in 2020 and the majority of them are from Odisha and Karnata. (4/n)
The committee set up by GOI taking corrective steps to avoid disruption. However, we have seen what happened in Donimalai mine case of NMDC. The Karnataka government did not allow the lease extension causing disruption. (5/n)
Source: the latest GOI report. (6/6)
Details of the mining leases expiring in 2020. This includes name and status of the mine, area covered and available MT mining for 2020. 7/n
There are incidences that leave mark on your life.
This incidence is of 90s when huge upside in steel came. A young family friend with a good family background decided to set up a steel plant. It was such times that attracts everyone investors and entrepreneurs both alike. The start was great and end very sad.
They were in the wholesale business of सरिया steel roads in Loha Bazaar of Indore. Very well to do family. The elder son in his 30s thought of taking advantage of steel teji. There were many who were doing similar things around. Everything appeared positive and rosy.
He took debt to set up a mini steel plant. Of course, it was beyond his means. By the time plant was ready, teji in steel vanished. What he spent was not recoverable. He took a lot of money from the market. Young MBA with dreams took all kind of risks with good intentions.
I hear so many people running behind EV bandwagon. I see it no different from what happened with "smart education" theme of late 2000.
Here are 5 case studies from the USA of EV cos filing bankruptcies. In India they don't file bankruptcies, they simply vanish in thin air.
June 15, 2022
Electric Last Mile Solutions Inc. filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in Delaware, making it the first of the electric-vehicle startups that merged with special purpose acquisition companies to go out of business amid the recent market slump. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Jun 13, 2022
EV maker Electric Last Mile Solutions files for bankruptcy
The move comes after the Troy, Michigan-based company disclosed a probe by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and withdrew all its previously issued business outlook in Mar.
Scary situation in IT recruitment. The kind of salary hikes happening with multiple offers is not heard of before. Met/spoke to Project Managers, Recruiters, CEOs this weekend.
One ex a 7yr exp dtop engg was getting 11Lac now got an offer of 35Lac from MNC IT services co.
Impact?
In another case, one eng was drawing 5Lac given an offer of 11Lac+10%bonus, just 2days before joining he said he has an offer of 18Lac. His offer revised to 15+10%bonus with a promise to stability. He called after 3 days, he has another offer of 23Lac.
In more interesting case. One PM said he interviewed 200 candidates for a very good technical position in last 6 months gave 30 offers but not a single candidate joined. He said in normal circumstances almost all would have joined
Recall an interaction 5yrs back with my Marwadi Kirana-wala (grocery shop owner). This is 50+yr old shop, 80% wholesale supplying to hotels/restaurants. Had good cash flow, used to invest mostly in properties/land.
1/n
Though not formally educated, he is very sharp, speaks "English" and knows his Biz. I told him to consider stks/MFs too. He laughed at me, said it is satta bazaar and narrated the examples of few of his known people who lost.
2/n
Come 2021, went to meet him 2days bk. He was not there. His 27yr old son Nilesh was manning the shop. He knew me too but didn't know abt my interaction with his Dad 5yr bk. Also, he didn't know abt my stk adventures.
3/n
How different market participants react when they got this book "How to solve 50% of your problems?"
- Momentum traders: will buy more than 2 books to solve more than 100% problems
- Fundamental analyst: will buy 1 book and read it two times to solve 100% of the problems
1/n
-Technical analyst: 50% is a resistance level and 100% a support level
- Growth investor: will buy only if problems growing more than 25% for 3 years
- Value investor: will buy if no one is able to solve their problems
2/n
- Cigar butt investor: No one's problem is my problem
- New bakras: someone should tell me how to buy problems
- Fence seaters: let problems come below 50%, I will buy
3/n
Some random observations from the ARs and Concalls
The Hotel ind is struggling to survive due to the ongoing pandemic. The best comes when there is a crisis at the door. Observing several initiatives and measures by the cos which would have never been considered otherwise.
1/n
Just to sight few examples from the AR of FY'21 of a hotel major (these are common across other players too). They initiated several measures both at cost and revenue front.
2/n
They launched an online app to deliver 5 start hotel food (which worked quite well). They took major cost reduction and rationalization initiatives. These initiatives were impossible considering the culture and history of this group.