Good Day! By now you may have seen our latest data from @angusreidorg about the party standings. But the massive sample size offers the opportunity to dive deeper. Follow along with me. #cdnpoli
So among decided and leaning voters, here's where we stand today:
...and a really important component of how we got here is vote retention. That is, how the LPC and CPC are (or aren't) holding onto their 2015 vote bases:
Look at how much softer that Liberal vote is relative to the CPC. Where are 2015 those Trudeau Liberals going? Take a look:
The CPC's vote retention by contrast is rock solid. BUT, the Conservatives have been nicked just a bit by the PPC:
Another important factor: voter certainty.
As you can see, current CPC voters are much more certain that they won't change their minds before the fall election. Left of centre voters, not so much:
But if the CPC is going to break through (it's largely been standing still while the Liberals sink), the party must do better with women. (And Trudeau must do better with men). Just look at the gender divide:
Age demographics are also a significant factor - stay with me here. On one hand, if there's any place the Trudeau Liberals are competitive, it's with young voters:
...that sounds encouraging right? Big problem tho, because young voters don't vote nearly as much as older ones. These data from Stats Can show the 2015 turnout among young voters for Trudeau was more on a one-off:
OK, moving on. Canada isn't a giant blob. So the regional story is key. Especially in vote-rich urban centres. Here, the Liberals are competitive:
And you can see that trends again looking at how the Liberals do in Montreal relative to the rest of Quebec:
So, six months out, trailing the CPC badly, it's important to point out where the Liberals are/can build themselves back up. They have a big problem though. And his name is Trudeau....
The leader who once had stratospheric approval levels? Umm, yeah, those days are gone. Look at the massive # of ppl who say they strongly disapprove relative to those who strongly approve:
And you'll recall me saying earlier, #PMJT's always done better with the young'uns, but even their ardour is cooling. Check out this trendline of approval by age of respondent over time:
And where do the rest of the leaders stand? Have a look:
Here's another way to look at it... none of the three main party leaders are particularly favoured by voters today. It's more that they're really steamed at the PM:
So what conclusions should we draw?
-The Liberals might seriously consider de-emphasizing Trudeau's brand primacy, make it about the mission, not the man
-The Conservatives and Andrew Scheer are going to have to grow their base and appeal big time
Thx for following along!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Hello. Today, June 23, is commemorated as National Day of Remembrance for Victims of Terrorism. How many Canadians know why? The answer, very sadly, is very few. But I'm going to make a thread about this that I hope will be informative ... I invite you to follow along. #airindia
Last year, I mused out loud in this op-ed for @ottawacitizen about how many Canadians would know why June 23 is important in our history....ottawacitizen.com/opinion/column…
As a pollster, I am uniquely positioned to ask Canadians. So I decided to find out.
Hi. This is the National Day of Remembrance of Victims of Terrorism. I must remember next year to poll on what Canadians think originated this day.
A thread ... I invite you to follow along.
If I was guessing, I'd guess significant numbers of people in this country think the worst incident of terrorism perpetrated on Canadian citizens was 9/11. Others might think of the Nova Scotia shootings, the attack on Parliament Hill, or something else.
It was in fact, the bombings of Air India Flight 182 (and the coordinated bombing of a CP jetliner in Tokyo). These attacks killed 331 people.
First, here's more info about how to access and watch:
Lots of conscientious planning + work goes into producing these debates. I'm the public face of it, but seasoned, smart, passionate BC political journalists are doing a lot of heavy lifting. This amazing team will be come together to discuss & decide on the q's leaders will face.
Hey Hey Happy Wednesday everyone. We've been working hard at @angusreidorg and can show you our latest federal vote intention numbers. Follow along as I walk you through them.
To begin, you can read the full report, download detailed tables, read up on methodology and fielding dates here: angusreid.org/federal-politi…
This was a survey of more than 5000 Cdns coast to coast so we can look at lots of different data cuts, (& we will) but here's the main story: 3 weeks from a Throne Speech & possible election, @liberal_party & @CPC_HQ are tied in voter intention among decided voters: #cdnpoli
Secondly, it's time for my usual disclaimer. Yes, PEI we ❤️you. Yes, you are DEFINITELY a part of Canada. No we didn't forget you. No, we can't include your premier due to small sample sizes based on small population. Same as we can't include territorial leaders for that reason.