Though it's aimed at investors, I've found the Kelly Criterion a generally helpful model for thinking about big life decisions.
https://twitter.com/TaylorPearsonMe/status/1116789716274360322
Some life Lessons from Kelly Criterion might be:
1. Optimizing long-term returns requires dealing with high levels of volatility in the short term
2. Place few, larger bets when you have high confidence and no bets when you have low confidence - don't get stuck in the middle
1. Optimizing long-term returns requires dealing with high levels of volatility in the short term
2. Place few, larger bets when you have high confidence and no bets when you have low confidence - don't get stuck in the middle
3. Never bet all the chips
4. If you're on a bad streak, don't double down to try and make it back, dial it down instead.
4. If you're on a bad streak, don't double down to try and make it back, dial it down instead.
5. Outperformance in the long-term requires underperformance in the short-term. Usually, because someone can probably outperform in the short term by breaking rule #3 and betting all the chips, but they are fragile.
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