Spent way too much time this weekend reading about couches for a new place.

My impression is that everything in the $1-3k range is manufactured in the same 1 square mile block (prob Shenzen?) and so it doesn't really matter from a quality POV.
I.e. Crate and Barrel, CB2, Burrow, Article, West Elm all seem more or less interchangeable to me so just pick the cheapest one that you think is comfortable/looks good.
Only real tradeoff I could see was:

DTC brands trying to differentiate with better shipping times and return policies.

vs.

Legacy brands have show rooms so you can try before you buy.

Otherwise seem pretty much identical so it's almost a pure branding play.
If any sourcing experts have experience with this, would be curious if this is true or there is more to it.

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More from @TaylorPearsonMe

2 Aug
@CoachCarter19 I think most people fail to accurately forecast the returns on buying a single family home in a way that factors in their time.
@CoachCarter19 For people with flexible incomes (e.g. business owners or those advancing in their careers, there's a huge time component that goes into it that isn't appropriately adjusted.
@CoachCarter19 The historical unlevered returns are about 1%/year and it's also highly correlated with local labor market so you are making a big bet with low returns which usually correlates with your income source.
Read 6 tweets
17 Jun
Inflation in Brazil from 1980-200 annualized at 250% and yet a Brazilian investor that converted 100% of their assets to gold in 1980 still lost 70% of their purchasing power.

Would seem to cast some doubt on how effective gold is against high inflation in a single country?
Arguably, gold worked because an investor holding Brazilian fiat lost ~100% of their purchasing power so losing 70% was better than that.
I would think one consideration here is that Brazil's GDP in 1980 probably a very small % of global GDP so other market forces would be more important for Gold's price than Brazilian demand increasing.
Read 9 tweets
8 Jun
Occasionally, there is a saying that hits you in just the right way and just the right moment and you keep coming back to it over and over.

One of those for me is: Slow is Smooth. Smooth is Fast.

taylorpearson.me/interestingtim…
The saying is widely attributed to the Navy Seals though many other military figures have made similar observations.

One of Augustus Caesar's favorite sayings was "Festina Lente" (Hasten slowly)
When you are dealing with lethal weapons, there is a very skewed distribution in outcomes: You are either dead or not dead.

Being dead is infinitely worse than being not dead.

So, you really, really want to do everything you can do to stay not dead.
Read 17 tweets
5 Jun
One interesting thing with the Kelly Criterion is that it sort of necessarily shows you the importance of diversification.

Even with insanely good odds, you never bet a huge amount of your bankroll
(I did a short explanation of Kelly here if you're unfamiliar)

Here's an insane example:

You have a bet which pays 100 to 1 and you are 80% sure that you are correct, how much should you bet?

(Try to pick a % of your assets/bankroll in your head)
Read 8 tweets
3 Jun
One of the interesting elements of crypto/digital currency that doesn't get talked about enough is the auditability of having everything being digital.
Part of the 2008 GFC story that isn't as widely talked about was that a lot of the problems were not just that a lot of bad mortgages had been handed out (they had), but that it was all buried in giant paper contracts so no one know how bad (or not bad) it was.
A lot of the traders that made the most money in 2008/9 were actually buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that were trading too low because people were afraid things were even worse than they were.
Read 9 tweets
1 Jun
I think understanding basic game theory concepts like the prisoner's dilemma is really useful, but it leaves at least two important concepts out:

1. Reputation

2. Context Dependence.
The gist of the prisoner's dilemma that [[Robert Axelrod]] showed was that by getting people to engage in iterated prisoner's dilemmas instead of one off, you promote cooperative
(If you're unfamiliar with the example, I wrote a short explanation) behavior.taylorpearson.me/interestingtim…
Read 14 tweets

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